Throughout this offseason, we’ve brought you the results from quite a few mock drafts. From rookies, to dynasty, to redraft, we’re doing our best to ensure you’re prepared for your upcoming draft. Now that it’s August, we’re seeing ADP (average draft position) take its shape. While some will move due to injuries and depth chart changes, we wanted to bring in those who have the biggest effect on ADP otherwise.

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Some of your favorite analysts from Yahoo, CBS, FootballGuys, NFL.com and others joined me this weekend to do one last analyst mock draft. These are the analysts writing articles on their favorite sleepers, values, and busts. They are the ones who shift ADP in one direction or another. So if you’d like to find out which players are going to move before your draft, it’s best to learn from this draft right here, because these are the voices of the industry. If you’d like to find any of the participating analyst’s work, I’m going to include their Twitter handles and site affiliation at the bottom of this article.

Instead of tell you my opinion on their draft picks like I’ve done in previous mock draft articles, I’m going to compare every pick with their current ADP, letting you know the players who show the most significant change between the two and which direction you should expect that player to go. Keep in mind that I’ll be using a consensus ADP from a variety of sites. You should know that because it can vary from one site to another. After going through the draft picks, I’ll wrap up with a general overview of how the draft went down.

This was a 0.5 PPR league, with these starting requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/R/T, 1 D/ST, 7 Bench Slots.

Rounds 1-2

So when going through every round, we want to take a look at the players with the biggest variation between their draft slot and ADP. In the first round, it’s clear that everyone is pretty in sync with the public, though Matt Harmon thought A.J. Green was worth reaching for, and it’s hard to disagree with Harmon considering Green’s fantasy finishes when healthy. LeSean McCoy and Mike Evans came as the biggest ‘values’ just two spots after their ADP.

The second round is mostly more of the same, but the two picks that stand out the most are both tight ends. Bob Harris reached to ensure he landed Rob Gronkowski and Sigmund Bloom reached to grab Travis Kelce. It’s conceivable that Kelce trends upward in his touchdown total this year, but would need to in order to live up to this draft position. As for Gronkowski, as long as he stays healthy, he’s got late-first value. The biggest value of the round went to Matt Franciscovich with his pick of DeMarco Murray at 2.08. While I don’t necessarily like Murray this year, getting him in the late second is solid value.

Rounds 3-4

This is where drafts start to change quite a bit, where you’re left reaching for players that you want, rather than drafting along with the current ADP. There were 10 players in rounds 3 and 4 that were drafted more than eight spots higher than their current ADP. The biggest reach in the third round was when Bob Harris selected Dalvin Cook at 3.10, which might have something to do with the quotes that came out of Vikings camp last weekend. Head coach Mike Zimmer said he looks great, while he has only seen Latavius Murray on tape. Michael Moore took advantage of some of the reaches and snagged Brandin Cooks at the end of the third, 11 spots after his current ADP. While some are having trouble finding targets for him in New England, you don’t trade a first and third round pick if you aren’t going to target a wide receiver. It was great value among this group.

Just one round after reaching 21 picks for Kelce, Bloom snagged Marshawn Lynch 27 spots after his current ADP, which seems quite high at No. 20 overall. Taking him at the end of the fourth comes with much less risk than taking him at the start of the third. Most analysts wait at the quarterback position, but I’ve stated all offseason that if I’m forced to choose between someone like Aaron Rodgers and timeshare running backs, I’ll go Rodgers. Getting him at No. 46 overall, I was able to get the biggest value in the round.

Rounds 5-8

This is the area of the draft you need to start paying attention to, as these are the players who’ll start moving significantly as the season approaches. All offseason, I’ve stated that James White continues to be undervalued, but not in this draft. Harmon took him at pick 8.06, which is the earliest I’ve seen him go. I like White, but taking him before someone like Paul Perkins is questionable. What you should take notice of, though, is that White should (and will) be moving up boards. Another player who was taken more than 60 spots earlier than his ADP (five rounds) was John Brown, when Jamey Eisenberg selected him at 6.09. If you’ve read anything I’ve done or listened to any podcast we’ve recorded, you’d know that Brown is fantasy football’s best kept secret. It’s important to note that Eisenberg picked him right in front of me, as I had him queued up. Instead, I took my second favorite mid-round target in Jeremy Maclin.

The player who fell furthest in this range was Andrew Luck, which was likely due to the news about the possibility of him not being ready for Week 1. If that news turns out to be nothing, Moore will be in good shape taking Luck at 8.01. The next two non-quarterback values were both running backs, as I selected Spencer Ware at 7.03 and Brandon Marianne Lee selected C.J. Anderson at 6.07. It was odd to see running backs fall as far as they did, and the risk is well worth the reward at this stage.

Rounds 9-12

This is where there is almost zero correlation between ADP and draft picks, as this is the area where most are taking their favorite sleepers in the draft because most starting lineups are filled. With that being said, it’s important to note these players who could potentially fall in drafts, as well as those who should climb in drafts. The biggest reach in this range was Marianne Lee’s pick of Cooper Kupp, as it’s one that I don’t think anyone expected. His current ADP sits at 246, which is undrafted in a majority of leagues, but Marianne Lee liked him enough to reach for him at 10.07. There have been glowing reports about his hands from camp and that they believe he can make an impact almost immediately. Matt Kelley also reached quite a bit to secure Cole Beasley, who flashed a bit last season, finishing as the No. 39 wide receiver. He was the 59th wide receiver off the board here, so it may not seem like a big reach after all.

The players who fell the furthest in this range were basically all quarterbacks, though Joe Dolan got the biggest discount on Cam Newton, who fell 78 spots lower than his ADP. Outside of quarterbacks, there were others who fell, including Dolan’s pick of Delanie Walker at 10.02, Bloom’s pick of Doug Martin at 9.02, and Brad Evans’ pick of Corey Davis at 10.05. It’s important to note that Davis signed his rookie deal just one day before this draft and it was reported that he immediately took over as the ‘X’ receiver in Titans practice.

Rounds 13-16

Keeping the defenses out of the conversation, there were just six players who were drafted within 20 spots of their current ADP in this range. There were just three players who were drafted without an ADP in our database, and they were Harmon’s pick of De’Angelo Henderson, Kelley’s pick of Jeff Janis, and Evans’ pick of Zach Zenner. Jake Ciely’s final pick of Austin Seferian-Jenkins is extremely noteworthy, as there has been a lot of buzz around him the last week, saying he’s finally “got it.” The one reach that didn’t shock me in this range was Kelley’s pick of Devin Funchess, who has been consistently undervalued this offseason. He’s someone you can draft in the late rounds, see what you have in the first few weeks and cut bait if you need to, but you might just have yourself a top 40 wide receiver.

The player who fell the furthest in this range was Latavius Murray, who Eisenberg drafted at 14.09, likely due to the news I talked about earlier. He’s likely to fall into this range in most sharp drafts. Marianne Lee selected Jeremy Hill at 14.07, a fall of 33 picks from his ADP, likely due to the hype that Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard have received in training camp. It’s hard to envision a big role for him this year without injuries in front of him, especially after the way he’s played the last two years.

What We Learned

As expected, quarterbacks fell down the draft board. What was a surprise is seeing running backs like C.J. Anderson, Spencer Ware, and Paul Perkins fall as far as they did. One thing that stands out the most to me is this: When someone says they drafted John Brown (or someone in that range) in the sixth round, most people raise their eyebrows and say, “Wow, that’s early!” But is it really? In this draft, 37 receivers were drafted in the first six rounds, which makes me think that he could go as early as the fifth round. Take out what round a player was drafted in and ask yourself, “How many went before him at his position?” This will give you the true value of your draft pick, because every draft is different. Keep an eye on ADP, know your league’s tendencies and take advantage when they start to overvalue a position. Don’t be one of the cool kids – you should zig while everyone else zags.

Find all of the wonderful analysts who participated in the draft on Twitter by simply clicking on their name below:

Jake Ciely – RotoExperts
Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
Jamey Eisenberg – CBS
Matt Franciscovich – NFL
Brandon Marianne Lee – HerFantasyFootball and Sirius XM
Matt Harmon – NFL and Footballguys
Brad Evans – Yahoo
Matt Kelley – RotoUnderworld
Bob Harris – Football Diehards
Joe Dolan – Fantasy Guru
Michael Moore – PFF
Myself – FantasyPros

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.