Tonight’s lineup is geared toward GPPs despite the hitting selections likely being chalky. A pair of high-upside, sub-$8,000 arms allow for plenty of exposure to Coors Field, and I’m all over it. There are five players from Coors on the roster below in all, and I’m not offering honorable mentions for them since they’re the backbone of the roster.
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Pitcher
Jimmy Nelson (MIL) : $7,800 vs. Cardinals
Max Scherzer and Chris Sale get the ball tonight (among some other aces), and it’s always tempting to give them a look, but a 12.5 runs over/under total in Colorado, according to Pinnacle Sports, is calling my name. Furthermore, the middle-tier of hurlers isn’t just palatable, it’s downright delectable. Nelson headlines that group. In a breakout campaign he’s whipped up a 3.38 ERA (3.20 FIP, 3.15 xFIP, and 3.37 SIERA, per FanGraphs, as well as a 3.14 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus), 1.20 WHIP, 5.9% BB%, 27.1% K%, 50.0% GB%, and 11.6% SwStr%. He’s been even better over he last 30 days with a 3.23 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.42 xFIP, 2.81 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, 5.0% BB%, 31.7% K%, and 12.4% SwStr%. He and the Brewers are -119 favorites in a game with an over/under total of just 8.5 runs against the visiting Cardinals. The Cardinals are a non-threatening opponent ranking in the middle of the pack offensively against righties as well as hovering there on the road, too.
Jose Berrios (MIN) : $7,700 @ Padres
Berrios hasn’t pitched well of late, so that could suppress his ownership. He’s facing the Padres in Petco Park, though, so that might not necessarily prove to be true. The Twins are small favorites at -111 with an inviting over/under total of just eight runs. The Padres are awful against righties ranking tied for 24th in wRC+ (88) and tied for 26th in wOBA (.307). More interesting from a ceiling standpoint, perhaps, they have the highest strikeout rate (25.4%) against right-handed pitchers this season. In addition to being a punching bag for righties this year, they’ve been beaten like a drum by visiting pitchers ranking just tied for 22nd in wRC+ (91) and tied for 27th in wOBA (.306) at home with an exploitable 24.7% K%. Berrios’ recent hiccups haven’t taken the shine off his breakout full-season numbers in which he’s tallied a 3.76 ERA (3.90 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA, and 3.98 DRA), 1.20 WHIP, 7.1% BB%, and 22.2% %. Both of the honorable mentions below at pitcher were extremely tough cuts, and if you’re entering multiple lineups, I’d advise mixing and matching them around the bat-happy lineup.
Honorable Mentions
- Sean Manaea (OAK): $7,900 vs. Giants
- Jhoulys Chacin (SD): $7,300 vs. Twins
Catcher
Bruce Maxwell (OAK) : $2,300 vs. Giants
If one of the big bats sits and you’re forced to turn elsewhere, feel free to use the savings in order to spin up to the only honorable mention backstop, Jonathan Lucroy. Otherwise, I’m completely content using Maxwell against Jeff Samardzija. The second-year big-leaguer has a .372 OBP and 115 wRC+ in 180 plate appearances against righties in his young career, and Shark has coughed up a .317 OBP, .541 SLG, and .357 wOBA to lefties this year.
Honorable Mention
- Jonathan Lucroy (COL): $2,900 vs. Mets
First Base
Logan Morrison (TBR) : $3,400 @ Astros
First base is another punt position, and what a steal of a punt LoMo is. He has a lengthy track record of fairing much better against righties on the road than in his hitter-friendly home digs. This year, he has a .428 OBP, .390 ISO, and 191 wRC+ in 145 plate appearances on the road. Dating back to 2015, he owns a .361 OBP, .282 ISO, and 145 wRC+ against righties on the road. He’s grossly under priced tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Victor Martinez (DET): $3,200 @ Yankees
Second Base
DJ LeMahieu (COL): $4,800 vs. Mets
And it begins! LeMahieu is the first member of the game in Colorado to get the nod on this roster, and what a good piece of exposure to that game he is. He’s blossomed into a lefty killer in Colorado. Since 2015, he has a .463 OBP, .132 ISO, and 132 wRC+ against southpaws at home. If you parse the data even smaller and look at his numbers against lefties at home since last year, they explode to a .484 OBP, .173 ISO, and 147 wRC+. The odor emitted from Steven Matz‘s numbers of late resembles that of a sewage plant, and this year, he has surrendered a .346 OBP, .556 SLG, and .373 wOBA to right-handed batters.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado (COL) : $5,400 vs. Mets
When I first saw the salary discrepancy between Arenado and Kris Bryant, I gave brief consideration to slotting Bryant in at the hot corner. After looking at Arenado’s numbers against southpaws at home, I came to my senses. Since 2015, he has a .426 OBP, .333 ISO, and 153 wRC+ against lefties in Colorado.
Shortstop
Tim Beckham (BAL): $2,500 vs. Royals
Beckham was dealt to the Orioles before the non-waiver trade deadline yesterday, and if he makes his debut for his new club tonight, I like him as a punt in his new home digs. Ian Kennedy‘s .279 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters looks like one to avoid before further inspection. After poking around, however, the batted ball data clearly doesn’t support the dominance. He’s allowed a 46.4% FB% and 34.2% Hard% to righties while coaxing a tiny 11.2% Soft%. Camden Yards provides righties a 112 park factor for homers, according to StatCorner’s rolling three year average, and Beckham’s 45.3% Hard% this year and 41.0% Hard% for his career against righties tends to play well when he lifts the ball (22.5% HR/FB% this year but just a 27.6% FB%). Kennedy’s not hard to lift the ball against, so I’ll take my chances on Beckham running into one for a super-cheap tater. If he’s not in the lineup, this is a punt position with a few possible starters for tomorrow’s games who are within Beckham’s price range listed as honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
- Jose Peraza (CIN): $2,800 @ Pirates
- Adeiny Hechavarria (TB): $2,500 @ Astros
- Adam Rosales (ARI): $2,400 @ Cubs
Outfield
Charlie Blackmon(COL) : $5,500 vs. Mets
I’ll admit I don’t give Blackmon enough credit in lefty-lefty matchups. His salary often causes me to shy away, but he’s gone from below average, to above average, to studly against lefties at home. Since 2015, he’s terrorized lefties at Coors Field with a .416 OBP, .214 ISO, and 131 wRC+. Those numbers balloon to a .446 OBP, .242 ISO, and 152 wRC+ since last season.
Jay Bruce (NYM) : $5,300 @ Rockies
My love for the bats in Colorado extends beyond those on the host Rockies. Colorado’s starter Jeff Hoffman has been torched for a .390 wOBA at home this year, and lefties are knocking him around for a .365 OBP, .544 SLG, and .379 wOBA at Coors Field. The sample is small, but if you include his work against lefties at Coors Field last year, he’s ceded a .372 OBP, .524 SLG, and .374 wOBA. Bruce is enjoying a nice walk year with a .342 OBP, .273 ISO, and 131 wRC+ against righties. He’ll look to fully take advantage of these wonderful park factors in Colorado.
Michael Conforto (NYM) : $5,200 @ Rockies
The Mets All-star representative has been even better against righties this year than his aforementioned lefty-swinging teammate. Conforto has accumulated a .413 OBP, .297 ISO, and 161 wRC+ against righties this year, and for his career, he has a .364 OBP, .258 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50