One exhibition game has already been played, and there are plenty more coming this week. Football is undoubtedly back in the minds of fantasy players everywhere. Before you know it, you’ll be kicking off your draft with friends, family, co-workers, or some random degenerates (I mean that in the most positive way possible), and all will be well, that is until you draft the wrong player and he derails your season.

Now, nobody goes into a draft planning to end up with busts on their rosters, but there’s no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to football. Some players get hurt (we see you Keenan Allen) while other players underperform (hello Todd Gurley). Hopefully, as you gear up for your draft, the advice below from our featured experts will help you avoid any missteps. They’ve named the top bust candidates from both running back and wide receiver positions.

2017 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid

Q1.What RB in our consensus top 20 should fantasy owners fear the most as a bust candidate?

Marshawn Lynch (RB – OAK)
“Lynch’s ECR is kind of a mind-bender, though not as flabbergasting as his ADP of RB12. As I wrote in my team fantasy preview for the Raiders, the floor for Lynch is like the floor of the Eyrie in “Game of Thrones” – virtually bottomless. He hasn’t played since November 2015. He has compressed cartilage in his back, a condition that won’t heal. There’s a widespread belief that Lynch will have better blocking in Oakland than he had in Seattle, but the Raiders’ offensive line is being slightly oversold. Lynch’s four-year run of 1,000-yard rushing seasons with the Seahawks, Football Outsiders ranked the Seattle offensive line 19th, 4th, 9th and 4th in run blocking. Lynch won’t play on passing downs and might be spelled often on early downs. The price is way too high for a running back with a medical condition coming out of retirement.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

“This answer comes down to two players for me: Jordan Howard and Marshawn Lynch. I’ll side with Lynch. The 31-year-old bruiser returns to the NFL following a one-year hiatus. He’ll be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, but age, a long break, and a significant core muscle injury in 2015 are enough to keep me away at his current ADP.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

“I’m avoiding Marshawn Lynch in all drafts. He is 31 and a year removed from playing any football. Oh and don’t forget he was hurt much of 2015 too. Who knows what he was doing in his time off to stay in shape. On top of that, there are sources saying the Raiders could limit his workload, much like Latavius Murray’s 195 carries last year. If Lynch can’t score the touchdowns that Murray did last season then he will not return his current ADP price tag.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Carlos Hyde (RB – SF)
“Hyde is the most obvious bust candidate. His current rank reflects his upside only but there are serious concerns about his role this season. Hyde may not be the best fit for new Head Coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense which might be why they selected Joe Williams in this year’s draft. I think Hightower/Williams will be eating into Hyde’s usage more than people think and one of them may even replace Hyde as the “starter” at some point this season. Not to mention whenever you draft an RB on a poor team you need to make sure they are heavily involved in the passing game – Hyde is not. Too many red flags to take him in top-15 just because he is the de-facto starting RB entering the season.”
– Sean Koerner (STATS)

“Always a threat to miss action due to injury, Carlos Hyde battled through injuries once again last season. Playing hurt, he failed to find the end zone as a rusher over final eight games. Meanwhile, Joe Williams was hand-picked in the NFL Draft by coach Kyle Shanahan and running backs coach Bobby Turner, so Hyde’s leash will be shorter than ever.”
– Sablich Brothers (5th Down Fantasy)

C.J. Anderson (RB – DEN)
“As much as I’d like to rant and rave about Melvin Gordon here, there’s one guy in the top 20 who won’t be his team’s main carry guy nor their best target out of the backfield on opening day – that’s C.J. Anderson, who is all set to take a backseat to Jamaal Charles. Unless Charles gets re-injured, there’s no way CJA is taking the major share of work – he’s just not that good. Anderson is solid, not special. Charles, when he’s right – he has been special (5.0+ yards per carry every season in his career except his very limited 2016)… and Jamaal is still only 30 years old. A split of duties is coming, at best, for Anderson. I’d rather have Charles.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Q2. What WR in our consensus top 20 should fantasy owners fear the most as a bust candidate?

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
“It’s possible that last season’s drop-off was no fluke. He lost 41 targets from 2015 to 2016, but even in 2015, after averaging 14 targets per game in the first eight games, he averaged 10 per in the final eight. This cost him about two catches and 20 yards per game. This also correlated with the team shifting to a run-first offense and relying on a strong defense to win games. That doesn’t look to be changing in 2017, regardless of what kind of quarterback upgrade they might get out of Tom Savage or rookie Deshaun Watson.”
– Sablich Brothers (5th Down Fantasy)

“The esteem for DeAndre Hopkins obviously reflects the belief that the 111 catches, 1,521 receiving yards and 11 TDs he produced in 2015 are more representative of his abilities than the 78-954-4 stat line he turned in last year. Yes, it’s hard to overstate just how terrible Brock Osweiler was last year, but I don’t think that means we should be comfortable with an early-round wager tied to the passing ability of Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. “Bust” is a relative term, of course, and Hopkins is way too talented to lay an ostrich egg, but it seems unlikely that he’ll return a profit on an early-third-round investment.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

Terrelle Pryor (WR – WAS)
“Pryor is a player who I don’t have too much to gripe about – but I don’t view him as a top 20 WR heading into the season. I would treat him as a stud WR3 if he were to fall to me, but there are so many good WRs in this range that it’s possible it could backfire in taking him early. We have to remember that he is a freak athlete who converted from a QB to a full-time WR just last year. He will likely need to still learn the position and adjust to a brand new offense. There is much more downside in this situation than most people are willing to admit.”
– Sean Koerner (STATS)

Alshon Jeffrey (WR – PHI)
“Jeffery scares me at his current ADP of a third round pick. I know the talent is there due to his size and ability to make the big plays. However, my issue with him is health related. Over the last two seasons, he has missed a total of nine games, mainly due to soft-tissue injuries. He already suffered a shoulder injury in camp this season, which is nothing new for him either. Also, there are questions about the quarterback for him once again. I like Carson Wentz, but he is only in his second year and will struggle plenty still, which only hurts Jeffery’s potential.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
“I’m not anti-Keenan Allen, and I’m willing to take a chance on the guy. That being said, he’s missed 21 games over the last two seasons and is coming off a torn ACL. He’s had plenty of time to recover, but players with that kind of injury history aren’t as tempting to draft. ”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
“I think Thomas is in trouble for where he is being drafted. He’s not a super-fast or tremendous WR talent… there’s nothing overly special about him except ‘targets’ – hoping the Saints pass game volume carries him again. The upside problem is Thomas will draw top coverage this season — the Brandin Cooks camo is gone (watch the 2016 DEN game to see Thomas work against top coverage). The early schedule is unkind — Xavier Rhodes Week 1, Stephon Gilmore/Malcolm Butler Week 2. Three road games in the first four weeks and then a BYE Week 5. It’s a very slow start set up for Thomas on a team that used to be known for passing that suddenly has three RBs to feed. The surroundings are not as advantageous as they were in 2016 for the very ‘B’ grade (trading as an ‘A’) talent Michael Thomas.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

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Thank you to the experts for naming their top busts at RB & WR. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and check out our latest podcast below.

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