There can be great value in drafting guys coming off serious injuries, although Keenan Allen owners of last year will disagree. However, for every Keenan Allen, there’s also a Jordy Nelson, who returned from a preseason ACL injury in 2015 and ended up being one of the best wide receivers in the league last season. In most cases, I believe the term “injury-prone” is widely misinterpreted. There are so many other factors beyond the player simply getting injured in the previous season that make a player more likely to succumb to an injury in the following season. I’m much more concerned drafting the guys who went down with serious injuries late in the season than a guy like Jordy Nelson who had ample time to recover as he tore his ACL in the preseason. Let’s take a look at which “injury-prone” players may provide great value on draft day.

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Keenan Allen (LAC): ADP 36 (WR18)

If you drafted Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen in two straight seasons then you are probably not drafting him again. I get that. This guy has gone down with a serious, season-ending injury in THREE straight seasons now. It was a broken collarbone that forced him to miss the final two games in 2014, a kidney injury that ended his season early in 2015, and a Week 1 ACL tear in 2016. I have no stats or evidence to support this, but I’m willing to take a chance that Keenan Allen does not suffer a serious season-ending injury in FOUR straight seasons.

When Keenan Allen has been on the field for the Chargers, he’s been a borderline WR1. Allen broke out during his rookie season in 2013 with 1,000+ yards and eight touchdowns. Before the collarbone injury in 2014, Allen was having a bit of a sophomore slump with 77 catches, 783 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. However, he returned in 2015 with 67 catches, 725 yards and four touchdowns in only half a season and put himself squarely back on the WR1 map. The kidney injury that ended his season was devastating, but not nearly as devastating as the ACL injury that ended his 2016 campaign before it really even got started.

As far as soft-tissue injuries like the ACL are concerned, this article by Jason Phelps of Sports Injury Predictor identifies the number of projected touches, the amount of recovery time, and the number of soft-tissue injuries in a player’s career as the biggest factors regarding re-injury. Well, Keenan Allen has had nearly a year to recover and won’t average anywhere near 10 touches per game unless he catches 170 passes this year which would be quite a season. With Chargers rookie WR Mike Williams’ season in great jeopardy, there’s going to be even more reliance on Allen in the passing game, and a return to WR1 glory will be in the cards. Let’s just hope the bad luck is finally over.

Sports Injury Predictor Chance of Injury: 55%

Danny Woodhead (BAL): ADP 82 (RB32)

Woodhead is never going to be a guy you’re going to reach for in leagues that don’t count receptions. However, if you’re league does count receptions then Woodhead can produce at star-level. In his last full season in 2015 with the Chargers, Woodhead finished as a top-five running back in half-PPR leagues — granted it was also a season in which eight of the ADP top-10 running backs busted. However in 2016, Woodhead got injured for the second time in three seasons. This time it was an ACL tear in Week 2. Now with the Baltimore Ravens, Woodhead will be looking to successfully return from a major injury once again like he did after he fractured his fibula in 2014. The recovery time is the key here and — like Allen — he’s had plenty of time to recover. Woodhead isn’t the type of running back who’s going to be a bell-cow, so a heavy number of touches shouldn’t be a concern for Woodhead coming off his ACL injury.

With reports that Kenneth Dixon will miss the season with a torn meniscus, Terrance West and Woodhead are expected to lead a two-headed backfield in Baltimore with Woodhead occupying his familiar receiving/third-down back role. No team dropped back to pass more than Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens in 2016 with 41.4 attempts per game, and you’d be hard pressed to find a quarterback who checked down more than Flacco who averaged only six yards per pass attempt. That bodes well for Woodhead who has already been called by Flacco “the best receiving back the Ravens have had since Ray Rice.”

Sports Injury Predictor Chance of Injury: 13%

Adrian Peterson (NO): ADP 65 (RB25)

32-year-old running backs have never been my thing nor should they be yours. Yes, Frank Gore was a first-round draft pick during the Civil War and is still putting up productive seasons in the National Football League, but he is much more the exception than the rule. In general, 30+-year-old running backs equals very, very bad news. However, I believe Adrian Peterson is another one of those exceptions. He is not done.

One of the biggest fantasy stories of the offseason was Peterson’s departure from the Vikings and arrival with the high-octane offense of the New Orleans Saints. The Saints offense was well-equipped to support both Tim Hightower and Mark Ingram last season, and the Saints didn’t bring in AP as a change-of-pace weapon. Selecting a 32-year-old running back coming off a torn meniscus in Week 2 last season isn’t for the faint of heart. However, AP has always returned great value following a disappointing season — his 970-yard season in 2011 was followed by his epic 2,000-yard season in 2012 and his suspension season of 2015 was followed up with a nearly 1,500-yard, 11-touchdown season in 2016.

Many of the all-time great running backs have fallen victim to that age-30 wall. However, AP doesn’t have the number of carries you would expect of a 32-year-old back who has served as a feature back his entire career due to a couple of injured seasons and of course his suspension. AP has just over 2,400 rushing attempts in his career which seems like a lot of times to be taking a beating from big men running fast. When you compare that total to other running backs unable to break through that age 30 wall like LaDainian Tomlinson (3,174 carries), Marshall Faulk (2,836 carries), Edgerrin James (3,028 carries), and Eddie George (2,865 carries) then you realize that AP has two to three seasons worth of carries less than these guys. AP is not done.

Sports Injury Predictor Chance of Injury: 44%

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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.