After riding Eddie Lacy for a solid three years, the Packers have dealt with a multitude of problems at their running back position over the last two seasons, forcing them to lean on guys like Christine Michael, Don Jackson, and Aaron Ripowski in 2016. Did they need to do this when they had Ty Montgomery on the roster the entire time? As we head into 2017, rumors have come out suggesting that they are ready to trust Montgomery as their starter. Should you believe that?

We often attempt to read between the tea leaves trying to learn a team’s intentions, but what if they’re doing the opposite of what they’re saying? There were times last year where Packers head coach Mike McCarthy suggested that they were going to trot Montgomery out there as the starter, and while they did in fact have him start, they never gave him the role that Lacy or even James Starks had.

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Lack of Carries

Despite the struggles that the Packers had at the running back position last year, can you guess how many games Montgomery had double-digit carries? One. It came against the Bears in Week 15 when they were missing over half of their front-seven on defense. In fact, if you were to remove the Bears games from Montgomery’s 2016, it’d look completely different.

Does this tell the whole story? Absolutely not, as Montgomery was essentially a part-time player throughout the first three games he played in 2016, but his role never really grew that much. His numbers against non-Bears opponents weren’t bad at all, but McCarthy refused to commit. There was a game in Week 9 where Montgomery was apparently on a “rep count,” though Montgomery came out after the game and said he had no idea that was happening. It was reported that he was dealing with the sickle cell trait, though he said that he’d never really had symptoms. It’s clear that there was a certain divide in communication between Montgomery and McCarthy last year.

Empty Words?

McCarthy has also come out this offseason saying, “I think Ty definitely has that ability… Obviously, it’s a very heavy-lifting position, so availability will be Ty’s No. 1 statistic. He’s a very talented young man, very bright, obviously understands the whole perimeter part of the offense now, so his utilization and the variation that he gives us as far as alignments and assignments and the different things that he can do will definitely benefit us as far as our offensive scheme. He just needs to have a great offseason … but this is a big opportunity for him.”

While this all sounds great, the Packers said the exact opposite in their actions this offseason, as they were the only team to draft three running backs in the NFL Draft. In fact, there was just one other team that selected more than one running back (Bengals). Even scarier, the Packers selections of Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Devante Mays are all guys who are known to be able to run in-between the tackles, not somewhere Montgomery excels.

History of Packers Running Backs

Now what Montgomery brings to the table that the others don’t is elite receiving skills for a running back, being a former wide receiver and all. The Packers offense looked much different in 2016 than it had in any previous year, as Aaron Rodgers topped his career-high in pass attempts by 38, which is essentially one full game. Let’s take a look at what the offense looked like prior to their defense being the worst one on the planet.

There are clear trends inside of these numbers, as you can see the rush attempts dropping, while the receiving numbers are on a steady incline. One thing remains true, though, and that is the fantasy points at the end of the year, as the running backs combined for anywhere from 379-385 points, which is likely the most consistency you’ll find in the NFL over a three-year sample. What this tells us is that the Packers running back position is one to target in fantasy football, regardless of what happened in 2016.

The Packers running back attempts went down to 257 last year, while they were targeted 101 times, which is a much lower percentage than years past, because of Rodgers’ increased attempts. The target distribution in 2014 and 2015 with Rodgers under center was 18.5 percent, while that number dipped to just 16.6 percent in 2016. It’s clear that 2016 was an outlier in what’s been a relatively easy offense to project.

Montgomery certainly has a leg-up on the competition, as he’s now been a part of the offense for two years, but the one thing that’ll determine his role comes down to pass protection, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal. There are reports everywhere talking about how the Packers are trying to turn Montgomery into a better pass-blocker, which is something he’s never been asked to do in his life as a wide receiver. This is an underrated portion of the puzzle, and quite honestly, it will likely determine Montgomery’s role. The reason it’s such a big deal is because Montgomery was only kept in to pass-block 15 percent of the time last year, a number that will have to go up if he wants the workhorse role.

2017 Outlook

When projecting the Packers for 2017, the running back target totals will likely come down even more with the additions they have to the offense. They went out and spent $21 million over three years to acquire big name free agent Martellus Bennett. The Packers tight ends have only seen 103 targets in each of the last two seasons, a number that will rise in 2017. Not just that, but Randall Cobb will return to a full-time role after trying to gut it out through multiple injuries last year. He saw just 84 targets in 2016, which is a far cry from his 129 and 127 targets the two prior years. You can also argue that the inflated running back targets in 2015 were from the absence of Jordy Nelson.

If Rodgers falls back down into the 540-570 pass attempt mark that he’s been in throughout the majority of his career (average is 34.1 attempts per game in career, or 545 over a full season), and the target percentage for running backs even remains as it did last year, we’re looking at anywhere from 89-95 targets for them. Keep in mind that doesn’t include what could be a decrease with the addition of Bennett and a healthy Cobb.

In the end, I’m not going to send Montgomery to the bench just because of the rookie additions, but it adds another layer of risk to his stock. Considering he’s being drafted as the 19th running back off the board, he’s too rich for my blood. My current projections have him at 150/675/3 on the ground and 50/390/3 receiving on 62 targets, which puts him as my No. 26 running back in standard formats, and No. 20 in PPR. His receiving totals are near his ceiling after looking at target distribution numbers, but is there upside for more on the ground? I suppose, but you shouldn’t bet on it with the concerns around pass protection. If Montgomery falls into the RB3 range, feel free to take a shot, but let someone else take him as an RB2. I’d rather take Williams in the 12th round in case Montgomery can’t get a handle on pass protection.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.