When looking at last season’s totals, we notice certain things. Like for instance, we know that quarterbacks who throw a touchdown pass on more than 5.0 percent of their passes are likely to regress, unless, of course, they’re Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. We saw it with Cam Newton after the 2015 season, and we’re likely to see it with Matt Ryan after his 2016 season.

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We know these things because of the years and years of data that we have readily available to us. If a player is not of a certain caliber, he cannot sustain elite-level production. That’s what we’re here for today; to discuss the players who are due for target regression in 2017. Whether it be due to their own talent, the talent getting better around them, a coaching change, or a quarterback change, we’re here to talk about all of them. This series will touch on wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. But let’s start with the one that should be easiest to predict, wide receivers.

Mike Evans (TB – WR) 2016 Targets: 173 (29.9 percent share)
Those who have paid attention to the Buccaneers offseason understand why Evans is here on the list. In fact, his drop started over the second half of 2016. For the first eight games of the season, Evans actually totaled 12.6 targets per game and saw a 32.8 percent target share, which is astronomical when the league leader (him) averaged 29.9 percent at year’s end. Over the final eight games, he averaged 8.8 targets per game with a more realistic 26.7 percent target share. The additions of DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin, and Jeremy McNichols can only lower his target ceiling. Expect him closer to the 150-target mark than the 175 one in 2017. 2017 Prediction: 156 targets

Rishard Matthews (TEN – WR) 2016 Targets: 108 (21.5 percent target share)
With the additions of Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Jonnu Smith in the draft, it was clear that Matthews would struggle to retain his 21.5 percent target share, but if you wanted to be optimistic about him, there was a slight chance. After the Titans signed Eric Decker to a one-year deal, that window closed. There were just 22 receivers who had a higher target share than him last year, and there were no wide receivers that played on the same team to finish with more than a 20 percent share. Even projecting the Titans to throw a bit more wouldn’t help, as it’s hard to project anything more than a 17 percent target share for him and it might even be closer to 15 percent. 2017 Prediction: 85 targets

Terrelle Pryor (WAS – WR) 2016 Targets: 140 (25.1 percent target share)
Going to Washington is going to do wonders for Pryor’s efficiency (it needs to, as he ranked 107th in yards per target in 2016), but his target share won’t be anything close to what it was in 2016. Below is a chart with Kirk Cousins target distribution over the last two seasons. Even projecting him for the max amount that Reed has gotten (7.8 targets/game), it would amount to 125 targets over 16 games. Expect him to be somewhere in the 110-125 range. 2017 Prediction: 118 targets

Julian Edelman (NE – WR) 2016 Targets: 159 (28.9 percent target share)
Quite possibly the easiest regression to find, Edelman finds himself surrounded by new talent on the offense. Not only did the Patriots go out and trade a first- and third-round pick for Brandin Cooks, but they also dealt for Dwayne Allen and James O’Shaughnessy. Not enough? They also extended receiving specialist James White, then added Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee in free agency further complicating matters. The only player with a higher target share in 2016 was Mike Evans, who was already listed at the top of the article. Unlike Evans, Edelman won’t get near that 150-target mark. I’d be surprised if he hits the 125-target mark. 2017 Prediction: 111 targets

Allen Robinson (JAX – WR) 2016 Targets: 151 (24.2 percent target share)
Over the last two years, Blake Bortles has thrown the ball 1231 times, more than all but two quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Philip Rivers). Not exactly a recipe for success, leading the Jaguars to replace their coaching staff. This offseason, I put together a bunch of research on what a coaching change means for fantasy players (read here), and by the league average, Bortles would throw 40 fewer attempts in 2017. That’s being modest considering they added the top two defensive free agents (Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye) to an already strong defense, as well as adding the best workhorse running back with the No. 4 overall pick in the draft (Leonard Fournette). Not just that, but the Jaguars should finally have all of Robinson, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurns on the field, which has been a rare sighting. He’ll still lead the team in targets, but his team’s attempts will go down, as will his target share. 2017 Prediction: 140 targets

Other notable players who’ll see their targets regress in 2017 (with 2016’s target share in parenthesis):

Brandon LaFell (19.0 percent)
Jordan Matthews (23.2 percent)
Brandon Marshall (24.6 percent)
Jeremy Kerley (23.4 percent)
Larry Fitzgerald (23.2 percent)

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.