There are always a few players that experts are much higher on than the general consensus, and it’s usually for good reason. We’re talking about people who spend time in front of their computer analyzing stats, while you’re out at the bar doing shots, or going to family parties.
What’s funny is that while I’m writing this article, there’s a family party going on that I didn’t attend, and not that I didn’t want to, but because I want to bring you the best information possible, and that requires some sacrifices. That’s why you should always be open to listening when a writer spends time trying to inform you on why you should be higher or lower on a player than the consensus. You may disagree, but you should never ignore the information that is presented to you, that is at your fingertips.
One of the players that most experts seem to be higher on this off-season is Browns running back, Isaiah Crowell. This is a profile I couldn’t wait to sit down and do, because I happened to be in between the experts and the public. To me, Crowell wasn’t a great player, but rather an average player who saw his situation improve dramatically this off-season. Let’s talk about why you might not be high enough on Crowell in redraft leagues, as well as why you may be too high in dynasty leagues.
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There are always a few players that experts are much higher on than the general consensus, and it’s usually for good reason. We’re talking about people who spend time in front of their computer analyzing stats, while you’re out at the bar doing shots, or going to family parties.
What’s funny is that while I’m writing this article, there’s a family party going on that I didn’t attend, and not that I didn’t want to, but because I want to bring you the best information possible, and that requires some sacrifices. That’s why you should always be open to listening when a writer spends time trying to inform you on why you should be higher or lower on a player than the consensus. You may disagree, but you should never ignore the information that is presented to you, that is at your fingertips.
One of the players that most experts seem to be higher on this off-season is Browns running back, Isaiah Crowell. This is a profile I couldn’t wait to sit down and do, because I happened to be in between the experts and the public. To me, Crowell wasn’t a great player, but rather an average player who saw his situation improve dramatically this off-season. Let’s talk about why you might not be high enough on Crowell in redraft leagues, as well as why you may be too high in dynasty leagues.
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Hue Jackson Effect
It started prior to the 2016 season, when Hue Jackson was brought in to be the Browns head coach. Over his previous four seasons with the Bengals, Jackson’s offenses ranked top-seven in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns every year. Being someone who didn’t love Crowell’s talent, I placed my bets on Duke Johnson taking over as the lead-dog, drafting him as a top-24 running back. But when seeing how Jackson divvied up the carries and targets, I needed to go back and re-evaluate my position.
Crowell started hot, averaging 6.5 yards per carry over the first four weeks, scoring three touchdowns. He was the No. 5 running back after those four weeks, but just as I started to believe, he took a nose-dive and averaged just 2.5 yards per carry over the next eight games. What caused this massive drop-off? After looking into it, Crowell lost his Pro-Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio in Week 5. Can one offensive lineman make that much of a difference? Not when you’re a special running back, but Crowell doesn’t fit in that category and losing Bitonio obviously hurt his production.
Misleading Finish
Crowell supporters will tell you that he finished as the No. 14 running back last year, but that doesn’t tell you the whole story. Heck, it doesn’t even tell you half of it. Despite finishing as a borderline RB1, Crowell failed to record more than 44 rushing yards in half of his games. Not just that, but 47.5 percent of his rushing totals came on just 16 of his 198 carries. That percentage was higher than anyone else. Do you know who was the leader in that category in 2015? Todd Gurley, who had 45.9 percent of his yards on 16 carries. How about this one – 194 of his 952 yards came on just three carries. On the other 195 carries he totaled just 3.89 yards per carry.
I’m not one to remove one run from one game in order to make a point, but removing three carries from a season shouldn’t have this much of an impact on someone’s totals. Most will view that as a negative, and it is, but there were some positives to take away from his season. After seeing just four targets over the first three weeks of the season, Jackson decided to get Crowell more involved in the passing game. Most don’t know that Crowell totaled 49 targets over the last 13 games, which ranked among the top-12 running backs in all of football. Crazy, right?
2017 Outlook
So why are we too low on him, Mike? The Browns not only locked up Bitonio to an extension (we know how vital he was to Crowell’s success last year), but they also added one of the best free agents available, Kevin Zeitler from the Bengals who used to play under Jackson, as well as center J.C. Tretter from the Packers, a much-needed upgrade on Cameron Erving, who was among the worst offensive lineman in football last year. And let’s not forget that they have Joe Thomas at left tackle, who is among the best in the game. So when people talked about the fact that ‘anyone’ could succeed behind the Cowboys offensive line, one could make the argument that the Browns have built what is a top-three offensive line in football.
On top of the improved offensive line, the Browns have also built what looks to be a semi-decent defense. It will take time for them to mold into a solid unit, but they’re definitely upgraded and it will ultimately lead to better game-scripts for running the ball. After all, there were five games in 2016 where Crowell didn’t even hit double-digit carries.
So, just how talented is Crowell? Well, he was an undrafted running back who’s come a long way. But outside of three carries from 2016, he’s totaled 2,070 yards on 528 carries in his career. That’s a decent sample-size and he’s averaged just 3.92 yards per carry on them. Fortunately, he showed that he’s able to catch passes last season, which could help dig him out of a ditch when he’s not finding room on the ground. The situation is great, even though Crowell really isn’t. But when you’re talking about fantasy football, we need situation and touches more than we need talent. When you have both of them combined, that’s when you find guys like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott. There is no way Crowell is in that conversation.
Looking forward, Crowell is someone you might want to sell after a hot start in dynasty, as he’s a free agent at the end of 2017, and his situation can only get worse. Not to mention, if he struggles, Duke Johnson hasn’t been a slouch to this point in his career, averaging 4.16 yards per carry in a limited role, and excelling in the pass game. I’m okay drafting Crowell as a high-end RB2, but if his price gets out of hand, snag Johnson in the later rounds, and you might just have yourself a league-winner behind the Browns offensive line.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
