I’ve been playing this game for a long time. Up until recently, for as long as I can remember, running backs dominated the early portions of drafts.
In my very first draft back in 2003, eight of the 12 picks were running backs. In 2004, Randy Moss was the only non-running back selected in the first 10 picks. Fast forward a decade and the notion of more than half the first round being a running back is considered antiquated and obsolete.
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The key to success in fantasy football is always to be one step ahead of the curve. Back in 2012, we saw the rise of the early round quarterback. But the truth is, you needed to be on that train in 2011 to benefit from it.
With the shift to wide receiver as the dominant fantasy position over the past few years, if you were onto it before it became mainstream, you probably benefited greatly. Much like the stock market, fantasy positions ebb and flow. I remember doing my research in the early summer of last year desperately wanting two elite WRs with my first two picks.
As time went on, I came to the realization that there was tremendous value to be had in securing two RBs with your first three picks. I even wrote an article about it. It appears as though last year was the beginning of another shift back towards RB dominance, and I think that trend will continue this season.
I encourage you to read my linked article from last season as it explains the logic behind passing on the best player available in order to construct the best team possible, but I will recap it here as well. The general concept is that the difference in caliber of running back from the early rounds to the later rounds is greater than the difference in caliber of wide receiver.
Therefore, you will have more of an edge over your opponent by rostering two high-level RBs than two high-level WRs. I believe that to be the case again this year.
We’re still early on in the draft prep process and rankings will surely change – a lot – but right now, there are roughly 13 RBs taken in the top 24 picks. Now I’m not currently enamored with most of the RBs pegged for the back end of the first round/early second round, but this is more about the strategy than the actual players. I firmly believe that if you are lucky enough to secure a top three pick this season, you should spend it on one of the big three running backs (David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott).
As a side note, this is why I favor auction drafts because there’s a large advantage to be had by picking early. If you can secure one of those three backs, you are going to be in a great spot to grab a complementary RB in the late second or early third as you see fit, which I think you should do.
So what happens if you pick later in the first round? Unless you don’t like any of the RBs going around that time (Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, DeMarco Murray, Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard), it will behoove you to try and grab two of them, passing on the WR options. In 2016, the top five most consistent weekly scorers were (you guessed it) all running backs. Seven of the top nine were RBs.
Meanwhile, the next 11 were all WRs (and one TE). Out of those WRs, Antonio Brown was the only one that was a first round pick that also performed at an elite level (the other first round pick was DeAndre Hopkins, and although he was consistent, he wasn’t consistently good).
In 2006, it was the height of the RB over WR differential. The average total points of the top 10 RBs was 272.1 compared to just 182.3 for WRs. In 2007, there was a huge regression towards the mean with the average top 10 RBs scoring 225.1 points against 205.2 for WRs.
For the next seven years, the top 10 RBs outscored the top 10 WRs every year. In 2015, WRs finally took over, with the top 10 averaging 210.2 points and the top 10 RBs averaging a 10 year low of 191.4. And people reacted to that.
In 2016, as many as eight WRs plus Rob Gronkowski could be seen going in the first round. So naturally what happened was top 10 WR production dipped precipitously to a 10 year low of 161.6 points, and 2015 was revealed to be an anomaly in RB production as the top 10 average jumped right back up to 218.9 points.
Delving deeper into the scoring averages is what supports the two RBs in the first three rounds approach. From 2006-2013, RBs ranked 11-20 outscored WRs ranked 11-20 by total average points. In 2014, the difference was a mere 0.4.
In 2015, the anomalous year, WRs ranked 11-20 finished with an all-time high differential of a whopping 8.7 points more. In 2016, RBs 11-20 came back with a vengeance, outscoring the WRs by 23.7 points.
Continuing down the ranks, WRs 21-30, 31-40, and 41-50 all have had a relatively consistent final point total averages over the past 10 years. RBs, on the other hand, have been wildly inconsistent from year to year at that range.
The evidence indicates that you are far more likely to be able to grab a serviceable WR in the 21-50 range than you are to find a serviceable RB. Perhaps more importantly, the point total you’re likely to get from a top 10 RB is significantly greater than the point total you’re likely to get from an RB ranked 11-20. The difference between the top 10 and 11-20 for WRs is much less.
In 2014, the difference between the top 10 RBs and RBs 11-20 was 78.5 points. In that same year, the WR difference was just 55.1 points. In 2016, the RB differential was 67.8 points, and the WR differential was 34.2 points.
2015, as I mentioned previously, is the outlier in an otherwise unanimous result over the past 10 years. As you go even lower, the difference between WR ranges shrinks. There’s not much of a difference between say a fifth-round WR and an eighth-round WR.
There’s far more of a difference between RBs at those spots. Once you get outside the top 30 RBs, you’re beyond the point where you can justifiably rely on any of those players to perform for you. At that point with WRs, you can still get adequate production.
As with any strategy, you need to be able to adapt. Ultimately, all you can do is take what the draft gives you. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and Julio Jones are still likely too good to pass on for lesser RBs. However, if you’re in a spot where you need to decide between second or third tier RBs or WRs, both history and recent stats suggest you get yourself two RBs before you get yourself two WRs.
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.