We’re nearly through two weeks of baseball, so it’s the perfect time to roll out the first entry in our By The Numbers series!
I’ll be checking in every Thursday with noteworthy stats and trends, and what they might mean for players moving forward. Obviously, at this stage, we’re still dealing with small sample sizes, so we can’t draw many concrete conclusions just yet, but there are still plenty of interesting early trends we can dig into. Let’s take a look at a handful that have caught my attention so far.
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Miguel Cabrera has a 27.3% strikeout rate
Miguel Cabrera is striking out 27% of the time? What is this madness?
Yes, folks, it’s true. Cabrera’s career strikeout rate sits at 16.9%, meaning he’s striking out around 10 percentage points higher than his career rate. Sure, we haven’t gotten that deep into the season, but it’s worth noting that according to FanGraphs, strikeout rate is one of the first stats to become reliable at around 60 plate appearances. He has 33 so far.
So he still has a little bit to go before we need to start becoming truly concerned, but it’s worth noting that his swinging-strike rate sits at an ugly 15.9%. Cabrera will turn 34 next Tuesday, and Father Time comes for us all, so it’s possible we’re beginning to see a decline in skills. No, I’m not saying to sound the panic alarms just yet! But this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
But at least he doesn’t have a 56.7% Strikeout Rate
Holy Byron Buxton, Batman!
We all knew Buxton had strikeout problems, but this is absurd! Buxton struck out in 35.6% of his 331 plate appearances last season, a mark worse than either Chris Davis (32.9%) or Chris Carter (32%). Unlike Cabrera, who has a lengthy history with an above average strikeout rate, Buxton’s issues are much more troubling given his past struggles. His swinging-strike rate is an equally cringe-worthy 24.4%.
Buxton has only had 30 plate appearances, so like Cabrera, there is time to improve before his strikeout rate begins to stabilize. But considering we’re starting at such a low point, it’s hard to see that mark settling in on a positive one anytime soon. If you were hoping this was the big breakout year, this isn’t the start you were hoping for.
On the bright side, he can only go up from here?
A relief pitcher has as many strikeouts as Clayton Kershaw
Staying with the strikeout theme, did you know that a relief pitcher has as many strikeouts as Clayton Kershaw? And if you did, would you have guessed it was Chris Devenski? Yeah, I didn’t think so.
That’s right, Devenski has as many strikeouts (14) as Clayton Kershaw, and in just eight innings of work. I wrote about Devenski in yesterday’s Depth Chart Review, and he’s an interesting case because his eight innings have come from just two four-inning appearances. The Astros seem intent on using him as a long reliever, not as a guy for mop-up duty, but as a weapon who can churn out quality innings. For instance, his four-inning appearances came in extra-inning games, both of which the Astros won.
Last year Devenski threw 108 1/3 innings (including five starts), so it doesn’t look like the Astros will be afraid to let him carry a heavy workload. Naturally, he won’t keep pace with Kershaw, but what if he can improve upon last year’s 25.5% strikeout rate and maintain this sort of usage? If so, he’ll be a very intriguing piece indeed, both in fantasy and for the Astros.
Zero soft-hit balls by two guys named Miguel
Credit goes to Jim Sannes of numberFire for pointing out this fun fact on Twitter yesterday. At that time, just four qualified hitters had zero soft-hit balls on the young season.
Following Thursday’s games, it’s down to two players — Miguel Cabrera and Miguel Sano. It’s probably no surprise then that both also have high hard-hit rates, with nearly identical marks above 52%. Not too shabby.
For Cabrera, it’s a good sign that even if his strikeouts remain a little higher than normal, he’s still crushing the ball when he makes contact, and should remain productive regardless. Cabrera has had a hard-hit rate of at least 40% the past five seasons. Last year, among qualified hitters he had the lowest soft-hit rate in the league (9.7%). Of course, we were never worried!
Regarding Sano, he’s slashing .296/.406/.704 so far, and has fantasy owners excited that a breakout could be coming. He’s still striking out too often (31.3% strikeout rate), but he too has had a hard-hit rate of at least 40% in his two major league campaigns. No one is denying the power, and there is evidence that a minor adjustment to his swing is paying early dividends. The strikeouts could prevent Sano from reaching the upper echelon of hitters, but the sky could be the limit with his home run power.
Andrew Benintendi is making contact 94% of the time
One of the highest regarded prospects going into the season, if not the highest, Andrew Benintendi hasn’t disappointed so far.
Among qualified hitters, Benintendi leads the league in contact rate with 94.2%. He’s made contact on 100% of pitches in the zone, and 88% outside the zone, all while swinging just 40.3% of the time. And it’s not like he’s slapping a bunch of slow rollers in the infield either. His hard-hit rate is a solid 35.7% with a 53.6% fly-ball rate. Perhaps even more impressively, his swinging-strike rate also leads qualified hitters at a minuscule 2.3%.
This is all a wonderful sign for Benintendi, who always showed excellent plate discipline in the minors. Last season, across 263 plate appearances in Double-A he had a 9.1% walk rate and 11.4% strikeout rate (he skipped Triple-A). But in his major league debut, the strikeout rate was more league average at 21.2% in 118 plate appearances, so it was fair to wonder if and when his minor league numbers would translate. Apparently, we have our answer already.
Undoubtedly the league will adjust to Benintendi, and more than likely he’ll show some growing pains somewhere along the way. But the future sure looks bright.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.