Last week, I put together the perfect auction draft for a 12-team roto league with standard Yahoo settings. In that format, I was unwilling to punt a category, bur rather strived to finish in the middle of the pack for both batting average and wins. Those two categories (along with saves and stolen bases) don’t have much overlap with other categories, so they are safer to fade than say HRs or ERA. Because it was an auction, I was able to carry out an approach that netted me exactly zero players ranked within the top 34. Within that article, you’ll also find a unique approach to the bullpen that is borderline cheating and is a surefire way to get a leg (and an arm) up on your competition in leagues with standard Yahoo roster settings.

This draft, was a bit different because I built the league to mimic ESPN standard league settings with 10 teams and head-to-head scoring. Now, you might not think head-to-head and roto are all that much different, and you’d be correct, but if we are nitpicking, there is a different approach to assembling the perfect roster, especially in 10-team snake draft as opposed to a 12-team auction. In the roto league, you want to do well in every scoring category, but in head-to-head leagues, it is encouraged that you punt one, or even two categories. In doing so, you allow yourself a different value system that creates draft profits out of thin air. For instance, Dellin Betances will only warrant ~3 standard deviations above the replacement level player across the five pitcher’s scoring categories. That lands him precisely where he is being drafted: as the 66th pitcher off the board. When you morph the rankings to your categorical focus, however, he remains at ~3 SDAR while nearly every other pitcher goes backward. This propels him all the way up to #17 among pitchers, but you can still draft him in the 15th round. Virtually, this is like trading your 15th round pick for a 7th. When you multiply that by a whole roster of values, it is difficult to lose your league. I detailed this, and why Betances is a must-have in head-to-head leagues, last season when I explained the Marmol Strategy.

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Now, if you are still wondering why it makes sense to punt two categories, it is because in head-to-head, you must win playoff matchups. If you finish 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, and 5th in your league for the 10 scoring categories, that gives you a whopping 80 points, which is sure to win you a roto league. In head-to-head with that balance, you may end up in first place going into the playoffs, but because of small samples in a one-week winner take all contest, volatility reigns and those 3rd and 4th place categories leave you too vulnerable. Instead, you want to target 8 categories that you can finish 1st or 2nd in. The odds of winning a category any given week exponentially increases when you have the 2nd, and especially 1st best team in the league for that category in comparison to 3rd or 4th, which leave you with ~55% chance of winning an individual category each week. Below is how Zeile Projections graded my roster compared to the rest of the league:

As you see, I was able to accomplish my goals. Wins and strikeouts are beyond ugly, but the other 8 categories should provide me a 70 to 85% chance of winning each category for any individual week. I built a basic RNG simulator to run 500 sims using these rankings in order to shed more light on how the strategy plays out:

 
Being so dominant in eight categories gives this team an 86% chance to win each week. Granted, when you move into the playoffs, each matchup is more difficult, but that number only drops to ~60% with a 25% chance at a tie. I can’t imagine anyone who would pass up those odds. It wasn’t just about the strategy, however. Roster composition, of course, came into play. Not only did I fill the more premium positions and categories first, wait until the 10th round to take my first pitcher, and map out a game plan on when I would have to take the most crucial players to secure my goals, but in order to put together the perfect draft, you’ve got to run into some luck during the season and in the draft too. I drafted out of the 6th position and grabbed Bryce Harper, who if he (luckily) stays healthy, could win the NL Triple Crown. Several players who typically wouldn’t be there at my draft slots, were on the board for my taking, from Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rendon to Billy Hamilton and Michael Brantley. Here is the full roster:

 
The two keys within roster composition were to get my three middle infielders early and fill my nine pitching slots with four closers and three high-upside set-up men. If this had been a 12-team draft, that likely would change to just 2 closers and several more of the same type of non-closing relievers like Addison Reed, Carter Capps, Koda Glover and Arodys Vizcaino. Players like that will help significantly in ERA and WHIP while assisting in Ks and providing quality upside for plenty more saves. Thanks for reading and good luck during your drafts!

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