If it seems like stolen bases are hard to come by, they’re certainly harder to come by than in previous years. Stolen bases are a tough commodity to come by because teams are running less frequently. I’m not sure why teams are running less frequently, but I suspect the stolen base success rate needing to reach a certain point to mathematically support taking the chance has something to do with it. Teams are getting smarter, and they understand the importance of not giving away outs.

Getting away from me speculating about things, let’s look at the numbers. Below you’ll see a table with the league-average stolen-base attempts by season dating back to 2007 (10 full seasons). I’ve yet to find a site that provides raw stolen base totals that aren’t broken down by stolen bases and caught stealing, so the averages provided in the table below are the sum of the league average in stolen bases and caught stealing listed annually at Baseball-Reference.

 
As you can see, over the last two years, teams have averaged fewer than 120 stolen-base attempts. The drop may not seem extreme, but if you use a 70% stolen-base success rate as a benchmark, you’re looking at 82.6 stolen bases in 2006 for the average team and 88.9 in 2014. Six fewer steals per team might be a little more eye-catching. Furthermore, my 70% success rate is probably on the light side as the league average for successful steals in 2014 was 92 and the success rate was 72.4%, and in 2016, the average number of steals per team was 85 at a 72% success rate.

Managerial Impact on Stolen Bases

Managerial tendencies can greatly impact where a team falls in relation to the league average for stolen-base attempts. It’s not necessarily that straightforward, though, as personnel probably plays a huge role, too. For instance, a manager whose roster is filled with aging sluggers as opposed to youthful jack rabbits is less likely to run. Still, it’s probably worth identifying a few managers and teams that look most likely to run and those least likely to run.

Teams Less Likely to Attempt Stolen Bases

If you’re looking for steals, I’d avoid Baltimore. Buck Showalter and the O’s have ranked dead last in stolen-base attempts each of the last three years. Their high-water mark in the last three years is 69 stolen-base attempts in 2014. That total cratered to 32 last year. The Mets ranked 29th in stolen-base attempts and nearly doubled the O’s attempts with 60. Last year was the second year in a row the Terry Collins-led Mets ranked 29th in steal attempts. In 2014, the Mets ranked tied for 11th in stolen-base attempts, so there’s some hope Collins will send his baserunners more frequently, but I wouldn’t hold my breath or look there for stolen bases, either.

Teams More Likely to Attempt Stolen Bases

At the other end of the spectrum, Craig Counsell’s Brewers led the way in aggressive tendencies last year with 237 stolen-base attempts. The Brewers are the only team in the last three years to attempt more than 200 steals, and they attempted 47 more steals than the Reds. It was Counsell’s first full season as a manager, and the Brewers ranked just 16th in stolen-base attempts in 2015 when Counsell took over for Ron Roenicke after 25 games. In other words, it’s not a guarantee they’ll continue to run wild since we don’t have a large sample of work to judge Counsell on, but my money would be on them ranking at or near the top of the league again this season.

The sample is larger to judge Reds’ manager Bryan Price on. Price’s Reds have ranked no lower than third in stolen-base attempts since he took the reigns. The low mark in stolen-base attempts in that three-year run is 172 in 2015, and they reached a new high with 190 last year. Price’s willingness to send runners somewhat illustrates my point about personnel dictating manager tendencies. Billy Hamilton — at last check — is the fastest player in the Majors. It makes sense that a team featuring Hamilton ranks near the top of the league in stolen-base attempts. Having said that, Hamilton is extremely efficient at stealing bases, and he’s “only” accounted for 66 and 65 stolen-base attempts the last two years, respectively. If you eliminated Hamilton’s 66 attempts last year, the Reds still would have ranked in the top half of the league in attempts (12th). Hamilton is obviously an elite target for steals, but Price’s aggression is good for others on the team, namely Jose Peraza. Even slugger Adam Duvall attempted 11 steals last year and succeeded six times, so you don’t have to be a speedster to get a bump in stolen-base upside from Price.

The Astros, Pirates, and Royals have all ranked in the top 10 in stolen-base attempts each of the last three years. Bo Porter managed the Astros in 2014, but A.J. Hinch has continued to send baserunners since being hired as the manager prior to the 2015 season. Clint Hurdle and Ned Yost have managed the Pirates and Royals, respectively, the last three years and remain in that role this year. Terry Francona’s Indians ranked fifth in stolen-base attempts last year, and the Indians have ranked above average in stolen-base attempts in all four years Tito has managed them. Looking back at his tendencies with the Red Sox includes some low ranks, but by and large he appears to be more aggressive than most managers in regards to sending would-be base-stealers.

The Nationals ranked sixth with 160 attempts in Dusty Baker’s first year managing in Washington, but his track record is murkier. Baker managed the Reds from 2008 through 2013, and only in his first year did they finish above the league average in stolen-base attempts. For full disclosure, they were within a few attempts of sitting right on the league average a few years. As the Cubs manager from 2003 through 2006, they ranked below average in stolen-base attempts three times. I’m not at all concerned about Trea Turner’s ability to steal bases in bunches, but be careful about using 2016 as a guideline for what to expect from Baker. The veteran manager’s track record suggests it’s best to exercise caution in stolen-base projections for guys like Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Adam Eaton since none are elite base stealers.

The Diamondbacks ranked fourth in stolen-base attempts last year and first in 2015. The team has moved on from Chip Hale, though. Torey Lovullo fills the managerial vacancy for the Snakes, and his managerial experience in the Show is limited to 48 games to close out the 2015 season for the Red Sox when John Farrell left to receive cancer treatment. I don’t have Boston’s stolen base numbers under Lovullo’s tutelage handy, and I don’t have the free time to go through box scores for 48 games and calculate them manually (#SorryNotSorry). It is safe to say there’s more room for the Diamondbacks to go down than up in ranks for stolen-base attempts this year. I’m not preaching doom and gloom for owners of Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, and other members of the Diamondbacks, but without info on how Lovullo will handle his baserunners, the prudent thing to do is assume he’ll be average in terms of sending runners.

The final top-five team in stolen-base attempts last year was the Padres. They were managed by Andy Green. It was Green’s first year as a skipper in the Majors, and he’s back this year. The Friars ranked third and attempted 170 steals under Green, and since all we have is one year of work to judge on, tepidly pegging Green as an aggressive manager makes sense. San Diego’s offense ranked 29th in wRC+ (85) last year, according to FanGraphs. They’re not built to wait on the long ball, so creating action on the bases is one way to attempt to manufacture runs — as long as the stolen-base success rate doesn’t fall to dreadful levels. Wil Myers exploded for 28 steals and was caught stealing only six times. I’m optimistic he’ll continue to be allowed to run regularly since he was successful so often, and because his manager let the team run a lot in general. My favorite source of steals from San Diego, however, is Travis Jankowski. The 25-year-old stole 30 bases in 42 attempts in 131 games and 383 plate appearances.

Players Changing Stolen Base Atmospheres

Gamers may want to temper expectations for stolen bases for a couple of players who changed teams in the offseason. Rajai Davis heads west from the Indians to the A’s. Cleveland ranked fifth in stolen-base attempts last year with 165 while Bob Melvin’s A’s ranked 26th with 73. Melvin’s A’s ranked tied for 21st in 2015 with 107 attempts and 23rd in 2014 with 103 attempts. Joining Davis in the American League West is Cameron Maybin. Unlike Davis, he moves to a more aggressive team. The Tigers ranked 23rd in stolen-base attempts in 2016 with 87 and the Angels ranked 16th with 107. Unfortunately for Maybin, 16th is the highest the Angels have ranked in stolen-base attempts in the last three years with them checking in 27th in 2015 (86) and 20th (120) in 2014. Mike Scioscia’s love of small ball and bunting apparently doesn’t extend to running wild on the bases.

Favorable Stolen Base Matchups

While you can’t draft for favorable stolen-base matchups, it’s worth noting which pitchers and catchers make for good targets to stream against in season.

Pitchers to Exploit

Noah Syndergaard allowed the most stolen bases (48) in 2016 followed by Jimmy Nelson (30), Jon Lester (28), Ubaldo Jimenez (26), and a tie for the fifth-most allowed by Jake Arrieta (23) and Cole Hamels (23). You can check out the whole leaderboard here. Enlarging the sample size to include 2015 results in the same players in the top-five of stolen bases allowed, but the order changes to Lester at the top followed by Thor, Nelson, Arrieta, and Jimenez with Hamels checking in sixth. You can view the whole list here. A few other guys of note who stand out as targets for streaming steals against are Gerrit Cole, Jered Weaver, Tyson Ross, and Anibal Sanchez — assuming the latter trio can hold down rotation spots this season, a long shot for the last guy on the list.

Catchers to Exploit

Pitchers aren’t alone in controlling the running game. Their battery mates play a big role, too. Last year, Derek Norris held the dubious honor of allowing the most stolen bases (76) followed by Jonathan Lucroy (69), Tucker Barnhart (68), and a tie for fourth between Francisco Cervelli (67) and Yadier Molina (67) — no, that’s not a typo on the last guy. Four of the five guys listed played in more than 100 games, so raw volume isn’t the only thing to account for when judging which catchers to pick on. For instance, Travis d’Arnaud was tied with Russell Martin for the sixth most stolen bases allowed with 61, but Martin started in 119 games and played in 127 and d’Arnaud played in 73 and started in 70. Tyler Flowers (60 stolen bases in 63 attempts in 76 starts), Miguel Montero (59 stolen bases in 66 attempts in 64 starts), Nick Hundley (57 stolen bases in 66 attempts in 77 starts), and Kurt Suzuki (52 stolen bases in 64 attempts in 92 starts) are a few guys to pick on chasing steals when they’re tabbed to don the tools of ignorance on a given day. Check out the leaderboard for stolen bases allowed by catchers in 2016 here. Following the lead with the pitchers, let’s expand the sample to include 2015. Doing that yields a top five of Cervelli (168), Norris (160), Lucroy (139), Suzuki (132), and Montero (130). The full list can be seen here.

Accumulating steals in fantasy leagues can be dicey, but if you account for manager tendencies when drafting and are active picking on pitchers and catchers who struggle to control the running game during the year, you’ll be fine.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.