Over the last six years, stolen bases have fallen by around 750. Back in 2011, 50 players swiped at least 20 bags but last year that number dropped to just 26. As with all resources, reduced availability increases the cost. In this article, we will suggest 10 players to target for steals across all parts of the draft.
Don’t despair if you are not fortunate enough to have an early first round pick for the power/speed combos of Mike Trout, Jose Altuve or Mookie Betts. Trea Turner (2B/CF-WAS) is a high-risk, high-reward option at the end of the first round who could finish the season as one of the league’s top base-stealers. He is projected for 42 stolen bases but the 23-year-old swiped 33 bags last season in just 73 games. That’s 73 stolen base pace.
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Jonathan Villar led the league with a career-high 62 stolen bases in 80 attempts in 2016 but comes with significant risk of regression, so why not target the best base-stealer in the business? Billy Hamilton (CF-CIN) could steal 100 bases this year. The Reds’ center fielder stole 165 across all levels back in 2012 and has swiped 57 & 58 over the last two years. The 26-year-old made significant improvements in the second half of the season, pushing his on-base percentage up from .283 OBP in the first half to .369 OBP in the second. He only played 45 games after the All-Star break but nabbed 36 bags (that’s 123 pace). If he gets on base, he will steal.
The list of players to hit 20 home runs and steal 30 bases with a batting average above .300 last season consists of four. Mike Trout (ADP 1), Mookie Betts (ADP 2), Jose Altuve (ADP 3) and with an ADP of 62 Jean Segura (SS-SEA). The Mariners’ new acquisition is one of only six players to have stolen at least 20 bases in each of the last four seasons. The 26-year-old set a career-high .368 OBP, helped by a league-leading 203 hits.
No team has stolen more bases over the last two years than the Reds. Billy Hamilton might be the star with speed to spare, but Jose Peraza (2B/SS/OF-CIN) is hot on his heels. The former top-40 prospect stole 220 bases over six seasons in the minors, and in 271 at-bats with the Reds in 2016, the 22-year-old was able to translate his speed to the big leagues with 21 stolen bases and a decent .352 OBP. The departure of Brandon Phillips, making Peraza the everyday second baseman, has inflated his draft day price. Be careful not to overpay for a speed-only guy (14 home runs in 611 games across all levels) who has infield competition from the offensively and defensively superior Dilson Herrera.
Last season, the Brewers attempted 237 steals. That was 47 more attempts than the second place Reds. There is no reason to think that they will not continue to run wild in 2017. Keon Broxton (OF-MIL) has stolen at least 40 bases across all levels in each of the last two years. He is expected to start the season as the Brewers’ center fielder and will be a valuable source of steals until his unsustainable 36.1% strikeout rate or star prospect Lewis Brinson force him from the lineup.
Staying with the speedy Brewers, their new first baseman became an elite base-stealer in the KBO, with 40 bags in his debut season in 2015 while also hitting 47 home runs. It is easy to dismiss the achievements of Eric Thames (1B/OF-MIL) in Korea, but it is widely accepted that KBO pitching equates to Triple-A. A 40 steal, 40 home run season in Triple-A would not go unnoticed. No one knows exactly what to expect from Thames, but given the Brewers’ inclination to run, he could easily steal 20-30 bags.
Tim Anderson (SS-CWS) played 99 games in the majors last year with nine home runs, .283 AVG and 10 stolen bases. Projections forecast 17-20 stolen bases but the 23-year-old has the pedigree of a speedster, having stolen 49 in Double-A back in 2015. Obviously, if Anderson is to become a top-10 base stealer, he will need to get on-base at a better rate than his current .306 OBP. Walking more than 3% of the time would help.
Two off-season transactions transformed the top of the Mariners’ lineup with the acquisitions of Segura and Jarrod Dyson (OF-SEA). The veteran outfielder is expected to lead off for the Mariners, at least against right-handers, and despite never being a first-choice outfielder, only five players have stolen more bases than the 32-year-old since 2012.
The Padres were top-5 in stolen bases last year and have two speedy outfielders destined for the left and center jobs. Their No. 2 prospect Manuel Margot already has three 30+ stolen base seasons to his name and topped the Dominican Winter League with 14 stolen bases. Available some 70 picks later, the Padres’ leadoff man Travis Jankowski (OF-SD) looks to be a better value. Defensively, he was a top-10 outfielder last season, just behind the Rays’ superstar center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (according to Fangraphs defensive WAR), so the Padres will want his glove on the field. He offers no power (.313 SLG) but got on base 124 times and attempted 42 steals.
Between 2011-2015, only Dee Gordon and Rajai Davis stole more bases than the 176 nabbed by Ben Revere (OF-LAA). Not only did he offer elite speed, the left-hander hit .296 over those five years. 2016 was nothing short of a disaster with injury in his first at-bat on Opening Day. Then he witnessed his replacement in center field, Trea Turner, emerge as one of the most dynamic players in the game. Revere will start the season as the Angels’ fourth outfielder but is only a Cameron Maybin injury away from everyday starts.
Players to Target for Home Runs
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or follow him @_tramps.
