Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Josh Donaldson were the top run-scorers in the 2016 season. You don’t need a FantasyPros article to tell you that it would be good to draft one of those guys. Over the last couple of years, the only two players to have scored runs more frequently than one in every five at-bats are Trout and Donaldson, with Bryce Harper in a close third position. There is no way to avoid it. The most productive run scorers are also the best players in the game. In other words, you’ve got to pay for quality.
To some extent, run scoring is also about having opportunities – getting lots of at-bats and having reliable hitters behind in the batting order to drive in the runs. We have identified eight players, outside of the first two rounds, who will provide good contributions in the runs category compared to their draft position/auction price.
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Brian Dozier (2B – MIN): ADP 35
Real life and fantasy stud Mike Trout has scored at least 100 runs in each of the last three years. The only other player to match that feat is Brian Dozier. The Twins’ second baseman had a disappointing start to 2016 and as amazing as it seems now, was on waivers in some leagues last June. No-one expected such an emphatic power surge to follow. Dozier exploded with a .641 SLG for the rest of the season, out-homering everyone (including eight more home runs than second-placed Mark Trumbo), and only Trout scored more runs than Dozier’s 69. Give your runs category a boost by locking up Brian Dozier with a third/fourth round pick.
Jean Segura (2B/SS – SEA): ADP 63
The Mariners’ offseason acquisition was one of only four players last season with a batting average above .300 to also hit 20 home runs and steal 30 bases. The others were Trout (ADP 1), Betts (ADP 2) and Jose Altuve (ADP 3). Segura led the league with 203 hits, including 41 doubles, and set a career-high with his .368 OBP. Some of the reason for Segura’s disappointing 2014 and 2015 seasons can be attributed to the tragedy that hit his family, but last year, the 26-year-old looked much more like the dynamic, multi-category infielder who was an All-Star in 2013. Segura will likely leadoff for the Mariners, or at the worst drop down to second, ahead of the formidable trio of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. He had 697 plate appearances last year and if he gets close to that playing time again, expect another 100+ runs this season.
Adam Eaton (OF – WAS): ADP 118
Washington was happy to pay a heavy price to acquire the talents of Eaton. He has never hit 15 home runs and he has never reached 20 stolen bases but what he can offer is excellent on-base skills. The 28-year-old has posted an on-base percentage around .361 OBP for three straight years and scored 90+ runs in both of the last two years. He and Trea Turner will likely be the leadoff and No. 2 hitter for the Nationals, both expected to get 660-700 plate appearances. Eaton is available outside of the top-100 picks and is currently being taken one spot below Royals’ outfielder, Lorenzo Cain. Last season, Eaton and Cain both hit nine home runs with 14 stolen bases and a batting average between .285-.290. The big difference was that Cain scored 56 runs compared to Eaton’s 91. Look for Eaton to push that total over 100 runs with the move from the White Sox. The upgrade of hitting ahead of David Murphy (.985 OPS last year) and Bryce Harper (.964 OPS over the last two years), should not be underestimated.
Dexter Fowler (OF – STL): ADP 169
With a 129 wRC+ and a slash line of .276/.393/.447, Fowler had the best year of his career in 2016. Although he is unlikely to repeat a .393 OBP, which was second-best in the outfield behind Trout, the Cardinals’ new leadoff hitter has a career .366 OBP across nine years, so expect him to continue to get on-base at a high rate. Fowler scored 186 runs in his two years with the Cubs, and although the Cardinals lineup is not as star-studded, expect the team from St. Louis to push the World Series champions hard in 2017.
Ender Inciarte (OF – ATL): ADP 204
In the first half of last season, the Braves ranked dead last with runs scored. Their season turned around, and in the second half, only five teams scored more runs. The full-year stats for Inciarte, like most of the Braves lineup, are distorted by the team’s disappointing start. After the All-Star break, the Braves’ leadoff hitter scored 59 runs, with only the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon scoring more. The 26-year-old has improved his on-base percentage year-on-year to a career-high .351 OBP last season, aided by 45 walks to 68 strikeouts. He won’t help you in the power categories, but with a pick outside of the top-200, Inciarte will assist with runs and average.
Jose Reyes (3B/SS – NYM): ADP 288
Playing time opportunities look to have increased for the veteran infielder with the ongoing health concerns surrounding David Wright. Reyes is expected to be the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman and he will leadoff whenever he is in the lineup. Reyes’ skills have deteriorated over the last few unsettled years, and the 33-year-old struck out at a career-high 17.6 K% last season. He is still an above-average player (108 wRC+) and although the home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases may not return to levels to help you, he still scores runs. In 2016, he scored 45 runs in 60 games, which almost exactly matches this career 1:1.51 ratio. If he plays, he will help you in the runs category.
Cameron Maybin (OF – LAA): ADP 323
Surely the ADP of 323 is a glitch? Maybin quietly had an excellent season in 2016, setting career-highs with .315 AVG and .801 OPS. He also got on base at a better rate than ever before with .383 OBP. For the third time in four years, injury prevented Maybin from reaching 100 games, but if he is healthy all season, the 29-year-old will be a significant contributor in runs and stolen bases. And that is without factoring in the possibility of the outfielder replacing Yunel Escobar as the Angels’ leadoff hitter. The potential for a speedy, on-base guy hitting ahead of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols is immense. Escobar, with .355 OBP last season, only scored 68 runs in 132 games. A fact that is remarkable and unsustainable if the Angels are to compete for the AL West title this season.
Cesar Hernandez (SS – PHI): ADP 334
Although he did not have high bars to clear, the second baseman posted career-highs last season with a .294 AVG and .371 OBP, and will again lead off for the Phillies in 2017. He offers no power, as his career .361 SLG attests. The 26-year-old has attempted 59 stolen bases over the last two seasons and led the National League with 11 triples. Compared to other second basemen in the same part of the draft (Kolten Wong, Marwin Gonzalez and Raul Mondesi), Hernandez is expected to get everyday at-bats. As a late-round flier, you could do worse than Hernandez.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or follow him @_tramps.
