When most people talk about the winners and losers of free agency, they talk about whether or not the player went to a better situation. While that’s helpful from that particular player’s standpoint, it doesn’t help you, the fantasy player. For that reason, this is an article to give you fantasy’s biggest winners and losers.
What that means is that a player should be valued more after from free agency than they were prior to all of the moves taking place. A perfect example of perception being greater than reality is Terrelle Pryor. Most assume that just because he went from the combination of Browns quarterbacks to Kirk Cousins, that he’ll have more fantasy value. If you were to read the article on Pryor when that move took place, you would know that it doesn’t change his value very much.
On the flip side, there are players who weren’t even free agents that should be on this list, simply because the situation around them got better or worse. For instance, if you were a running back that was playing behind a bottom-five offensive line in 2016, but your team went out and got two Pro-Bowl offensive lineman, it would have a very strong impact on your value. Now that we’ve cleared up what this list is and what it isn’t, let’s talk about the winners and losers of free agency.
WINNERS
Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
It’s easy to overlook the impact that free agency has had on quarterbacks, especially when it’s one who didn’t go anywhere. With no run game whatsoever, no wide receiver outside of Mike Evans, and not much talent on the offensive line, Winston took a step forward in his second NFL season, compiling 28 passing touchdowns on just 567 attempts, giving him the 11th highest touchdown percentage in the NFL (minimum 100 attempts). The addition of DeSean Jackson was the element this offense was missing in order to stretch the field, and create true one-on-one situations for Evans. While Jackson and Evans will fight over targets, Winston is the one stockpiling all the points, regardless of which receiver catches them. The fact that they didn’t sign a free agent running back (outside of Jacquizz Rodgers) bodes well for him as well, because Charles Sims’ best attribute is catching the ball out of the backfield. Coming off boards as the No. 15 quarterback in early ADP is a steal.
Pierre Garcon (WR – SF)
This is a move that’s been put off as a good one, but not one that severely impacts fantasy. Sitting here as one of the top “winners,” I clearly disagree with the mass consensus. The last time Garcon played with Kyle Shanahan (his new head coach), he totaled 249 targets in just 26 games. To give you an idea of that pace, it would amount to 153 in a 16-game season, a number that only five players hit in 2016. While he likely won’t see that many targets, there’ve been just three wide receivers (of 56 possible) over the last two years who finished outside the top 30 wide receivers while seeing at least 110 targets. It’s pretty safe to lock in Garcon for at least that, and his current ADP sits as the No. 57 wide receiver. This needs to be fixed.
Isaiah Crowell (RB – CLE)
Crowell was a restricted free agent that received a second round tender, which means that the Browns were planning on keeping him. The Browns have quietly built the best interior offensive line in football with the free agent acquisitions of offensive guard Kevin Zeitler from the Bengals, and center J.C. Tretter from the Packers. They also brought back offensive guard Joel Bitonio, who was playing at a Pro-Bowl level prior to going down with a season-ending injury. With Bitonio in the lineup, Crowell totaled 416 yards on 74 carries (5.62 yards per carry) and three touchdowns. Without him, he totaled just 536 yards on 124 carries (4.32 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. He may not be a top five running back in the league, but he has a top-five offensive line and a head coach that wants to run the ball. He’s an RB2 at worst, but he’s being drafted as the 28th running back off the board.
Jack Doyle (TE – IND)
From the start of free agency, it appeared as if Doyle was going to be headed out of Indianapolis, while the Dwayne Allen hype train would start again. Instead, Allen was traded away and Doyle re-signed with the Colts, making him the clear-cut No. 1 tight end playing for Andrew Luck. This is big news, because in Luck’s five years, he’s targeted tight ends an average of 135 times per year. There were only eight other teams to hit that mark in 2016, showing Luck’s willingness to continually target his tight ends. There’ve been studies that I’ve done in the past that show tight ends who see at least 82 targets are almost a lock to finish as top-12 options. Unless you think Eric Swoope steals his job, there’s no reason Doyle should be drafted outside the 15 options. Currently, he is being drafted outside the top 24 options.
Tom Brady (QB – NE)
If you were expecting a decline from the soon-to-be 40-year-old, the Patriots are doing everything in their ability to ensure that doesn’t happen. Not only did they make two trades that brought both Brandin Cooks and Dwayne Allen to their offense, but they also added Rex Burkhead to potentially fill LeGarrette Blount’s old role. This works well because Burkhead is an excellent receiver who could turn a few rushing touchdowns into receiving ones, whereas Blount didn’t offer anything to Brady’s output. While most will talk about Cooks, Edelman, and Allen, trying to figure out how they’ll use them, Brady just continues to post elite fantasy numbers.
Notable mentions: Rex Burkhead, Todd Gurley, Eli Manning
LOSERS
Andy Dalton (QB – CIN)
There are a lot of fantasy owners who are going to be disappointed in Dalton this year. Not because of the fact that they remained content with Brandon LaFell and re-signed him, but because of the guys they didn’t re-sign. Both left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Kevin Zeitler left the team via free agency, leaving Dalton behind arguably the worst offensive line in football. Even with Whitworth and Zeitler last year, Dalton was sacked 41 times, which was the second-most in the NFL. He’s going to be under a lot of duress this season with almost no mobility, yet he’s being drafted before guys like Tyrod Taylor.
Brandon Marshall (WR – NYG)
Don’t be one of those fantasy players who jumps on the Marshall hype-train just because “Odell Beckham Jr. will take attention away from him.” To start, Beckham has seen plenty of attention before and really can’t get any more. If anything, Marshall will be a solid decoy to detract attention from Beckham. On top of that, Sterling Shepard was an extremely solid player in his rookie year and will demand targets himself. Between Beckham, Shepard, and Marshall, you have to find a way to distribute roughly 350 targets. There is no way they take away from Beckham’s 160 target range, which leaves roughly 190 targets between Marshall and Shepard. Whichever way you split them up, the 33-year-old Marshall isn’t worth his late-fifth round price tag.
Latavius Murray (RB – MIN)
While playing for the Raiders the last two years, Murray has had essentially zero competition for carries, as he was running alongside two rookie running backs who simply weren’t ready in 2016. Going to the Vikings to battle with Jerick McKinnon for carries doesn’t strike some as a challenge because of McKinnon’s struggles in 2016, but much of that was on their injured (and bad) offensive line. As the season went on, McKinnon got more accustomed and changed his game. Murray will come into Minnesota after playing behind a top-five run-blocking offensive line where he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry, to play behind a line whose best running back averaged 3.39 yards per carry in 2016 (McKinnon).
Jared Cook (TE – OAK)
It’s always been “wait until Jared Cook plays with a real quarterback!” That’s when we were supposed to see results. Well, another year has passed and Cook has still yet to finish as a top-10 fantasy option at the tight end position. That’s hard to do when you’ve seen at least 72 targets in five of the last six seasons. Going to the Raiders should cool down all of the Cook hope, as he now has to battle both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree for targets. Just sit back and laugh when someone selects him in front of Jack Doyle.
Jordan Matthews (WR – PHI)
From a real football standpoint, the Eagles did a lot of good things to their wide receiving corps during free agency. That doesn’t change the fact that it hurts Matthews and his production going forward. Not only will he have to deal with Alshon Jeffery taking targets, but he’ll also have to battle for targets with Torrey Smith. The Eagles have also been attached to Dalvin Cook during the scouting process, which would further complicate the Eagles fantasy prospects. Matthews was the star of the receiving corps last year seeing 8.4 targets per game (20th most among WRs), yet finished as just the No. 49 wide receiver on a points per game basis. His quality of targets will go up, but not enough to overcome the new competition.
Notable mentions: Thomas Rawls, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Hill
Ep. 71: Early Mock Draft & March Madness
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
