In 2013, Chris Davis and his .286 batting average were likely a huge boon to fantasy owners who punted average and drafted him
It’s called “getting too cute.”
It’s one of my pet peeves, along with fans who do the wave during critical moments of a game and announcers who don’t believe in sabermetrics. I mean, Kyle Shanahan, we know you’re a brilliant offensive mind, but just run the ball three times after that Julio Jones catch instead of calling all those pass plays, will you? Too cute.
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A prime example of getting too cute is punting categories during your fantasy baseball draft. I mean, really think about the concept here.
“Hey, I’m going to intentionally draft a team that has a ceiling of 109 points instead of 120.” To quote Jerry Seinfeld, that’s how they negotiate in the bizarro world.
There may be a time during the season when punting may become a necessity (i.e., you’re way behind in both steals and strikeouts and just don’t have enough time to make up ground in both categories), but it is almost never during the draft. Anyone who has won a championship knows that pretty much every point is critical, and guaranteeing yourself a “1” in a category right out of the gate is basically leaving yourself needing to draw an inside straight to win the big prize.
Ok, so, the short answer is, don’t punt a category on Draft Day. Easy peasy. But, as with any short answer, there’s a long answer.
And that long answer is – Don’t punt a category on Draft Day. But if you HAVE to do it, here’s some advice on how to do it effectively.
So you’ve lost a bet to your roommate and you’re forced to punt a category on Draft Day. First thing you need to do is decide which category you’re going to punt. There are a few categories that you really just can’t even attempt to punt because it’s impossible to do so without negatively impacting other categories.
For the hitting categories, home runs, RBI and runs are pretty much out. Remember, you’re basically looking at needing to rank at or near the top in every other category if you’re punting.
Punting home runs is probably going to negatively impact RBI and vice versa. And it’s difficult to see a scenario where you punt runs and don’t also negatively impact either home runs or steals.
With pitching, you certainly can’t punt ERA or WHIP, because the other category will undoubtedly be affected. Punting wins is fine in theory, but it’s not exactly a category you can ignore absent throwing almost no innings, which kills your strikeouts. And punting strikeouts is really a dangerous tightrope.
You’re either giving up on wins because you’re throwing so few innings, or you’re filling your team with a ton of low-strikeout starters with elite ratios, which really do not exist. So right off the bat, we’ve got only a few options.
The two most common schools of thought are to punt steals or saves because both are discrete statistics that don’t have a huge effect on other categories. And yes, to the extent you are compelled to punt, both make good options.
You can easily just avoid closers at the draft and during your season, and you can largely do the same thing with speed demons (though it would be impressive if you somehow manage to end a season with zero steals). So, if you’re punting, steals and saves are probably the easiest and cleanest categories to avoid on draft day.
But if you want to punt while leaving yourself just a little bit of wiggle room, you might want to try batting average because, well, it’s fluky. I mean, Chris Davis did hit .286 one year. Curtis Granderson once hit .302.
Punting batting average always gives you the chance of having one of those random crazy years where everyone gets some great BABIP luck. So, drafting a lot of low-average sluggers might not definitively crush your potential to compete in the batting average category. I mean, it probably will, but whatever, we’re grasping at straws.
The real thing to remember, however, is that other than perhaps in the batting average category, punting means punting. That doesn’t mean drafting one closer instead of two, and it doesn’t mean drafting just one or two guys who may steal instead of five. When you punt, every stat you accumulate in that category is wasted. You need to approach your draft and your season like those categories simply don’t exist.
In other words, as Mike Ehrmantraut would say, no more half measures, Walter. Come for the fantasy advice, stay for the obscure pop culture references, am I right?
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Dan Harris is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.