Home runs are simply the most important offensive stat in 5×5 roto. Fantasy owners should dig the long ball since it has a direct effect on RBI, Rs and AVG. No other stat has that sort of impact.
That’s why you typically can’t find good home run hitters after the early rounds of your drafts or without a high price tag in your auctions. If you used early round picks on speedsters in your roto drafts, then you’ll likely be scrambling for power before you know it.
According to Zeile Projections, there are only 23 players projected to hit 30+ HRs in 2017. The bad news is that all but four of them are projected to go in the first 100 picks based on current FantasyPros ADP data.
That means that you have to get creative if you are going to find power for your roster after the obvious picks have gone. So, let’s channel our inner Andy Warhol or something and get creative here!
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Mid-Value Sluggers To Target
Kendrys Morales (DH – TOR)
The Blue Jays are more-or-less hoping Morales can provide Edwin Encarnacion’s power for a fraction of the price. The gamble may pay off. It’s a gamble that fantasy owners should take too. Morales currently has a 163.3 ADP, and he’s one of the few options at that point in a draft that seem like a safe bet to hit 30 HR.
According to advanced metrics, he hit the ball harder last year than any year of his career which resulted in his best power numbers since 2009, and he’s now moving out of Kauffman Stadium, a park that suppresses home runs. The main knock against him is his lack of a true fantasy position at this point, though that would change if he were to get some time at 1B in Toronto.
Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL)
Here we go, here we go, here we go again. Fantasy owners want Schoop once more. His 25 HRs in 2016 were considered a letdown to those who were drooling over the power potential he showed in 2015. You can benefit from his post-hype sleeper status and low draft price tag in 2017.
He’s still only 25 years old, and we’ve seen that the floor for his HR total is in the mid-20s, but he still has a ceiling of being able to hit 30 HRs. That’s mighty valuable for a 2B and his low 171.3 ADP doesn’t reflect that potential.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF – MIN)
With multi-position eligibility and legit 30+ HR potential, it’s a surprise that so many people are saying no to Sano. He has a 142.3 ADP at the moment but is one of the better power hitters you can find this late in a draft. He crushed the ball at every level of the minors and continued that power display in the majors thus far. He’s a classic low AVG, high strikeout but high HR player, so you’ll want to ensure you have other players to balance out your roto team.
Sluggers To Target Even Deeper In Drafts
Joc Pederson (OF – LAD)
Pederson’s power is a sure thing but, well, his playing time is not. He may start the season as a platoon player, but that’s good because it keeps his value low in 2017 drafts.
If he can jockey his way into a full-time position, then he seems like a lock to hit 30 HR. Though he hasn’t showcased it in this majors, he also has the bonus of being a sleeper for stolen bases after stealing 116 bags in the minors.
Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI)
Who? Joseph may have some less aware fantasy owners asking that question after hiding away in a barren Phillies offense last year, but he crushed 21 dingers in just 315 AB and now has a more established role with Ryan Howard out of the picture. He’s a bit of an unknown given his limited minor and major league numbers, which is why he has an ADP of 266.3 right now. With a starting position locked up and his cheap price tag, there’s no reason not to gamble on Joseph’s power potential.
Justin Bour (1B – MIA)
He’s consistently had an ISO hovering around .210 in his minor and major league career, so why have fantasy owners soured on Bour? The main reason is his health as he hasn’t played a full season in his short career.
Last year, he was on the 60-day DL with an ankle injury, but he’s healthy going into 2017. A healthy Bour should be a safe bet to approach 25-30 HRs, and his ADP of 330.5 makes him very attractive as a cheap power option.
Mitch Moreland (1B – BOS)
David Ortiz may be gone, but Mitch Moreland hopes to ensure the Red Sox won’t miss him too much. Despite a career high of 23 HR, he projects to show more power than that in a full season as a starter and could showcase that in Boston this year.
Travis Shaw (3B – MIL)
Shaw’s arrival in Milwaukee may hurt Hernan Perez’s value as a sleeper, but it makes Shaw an interesting sleeper himself. He’s a much better fit for Miller Park as a leftie than Fenway.
That switch alone could add a few HRs to his totals this year. His profile indicates that he could easily jump up to 25 HRs if given a full year of plate appearances in 2017.
Sluggers To Monitor This Spring
Beyond that, there are a few other interesting power hitters to keep an eye on. Chris Carter has not been signed to a team yet and has even threatened to play in Japa if he doesn’t sign somewhere. Once he signs with a team, his draft stock should move up from his current 256 ADP, and he represents a great option for cheap power (with poor AVG).
The DH situation in Minnesota also represents a chance for a sleeper power hitter once it is sorted out. Kennys Vargas seems to be the front-runner, but Byung-ho Park is still an option, assuming he clears waivers and rejoins the team for Spring Training. Despite being DFA by the Twins, I think Park will be underrated after an up-and-down 2016 debut. He still showed flashes of his elite power that made him a star in Korea. He could be a viable sleeper if he gets the job.
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Luke Gloeckner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Luke, check out his archive or follow him @mrcheatsheet.