Could Deshaun Watson blossom into a Marcus Mariota-esque QB in Cleveland?
Mo Brewington provides advice on which landing spots would provide the best fantasy situations for some of next season’s rookies.
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In less than 100 days, the NFL will welcome its next crop of rookies into the league. Many of us will spend that time pouring over mock drafts, game tape, and workout results trying to uncover the next breakout fantasy star.
While general managers are forced to debate drafting for need or taking the best player available on their boards, fantasy owners just want to see those players land on teams where they can make a splash. So, rather than give you the typical mock draft, we thought it’d be interesting to envision some of this year’s best draft fits from a fantasy perspective.
Cleveland Browns (1.01) – Deshaun Watson (QB – Clemson)
In 2007, Derek Anderson threw for 3,787 yards and 29 touchdowns, finishing as the No. 5 fantasy quarterback, and helping the Browns to a 10-6 record. Since then, no Browns’ QB has finished higher than 22nd in fantasy scoring.
To turn around a team that’s won more than five games once in the last nine seasons, the Browns need more than a franchise quarterback. They need a “LeBron James-style” savior.
Over the course of the recent college football playoffs, Deshaun Watson proved he has the “hero gene.” Watson opened the semi-finals, against Ohio State, with a disastrous interception on the game’s first series, only to recover and throttle the Buckeyes, 31-0.
Then, in the rematch with Alabama, Watson put on one of the gutsiest championship game performances you’ll ever see. The Tigers trailed for the game’s first 55 minutes, yet the QB fought through his early struggles, and a merciless Crimson Tide defense to lead Clemson on two critical touchdown drives in the final seven minutes of regulation. The contest ended with Watson finding his slot receiver on a shallow out route in the end zone, with one second on the game clock.
The Tigers avenged their loss to ‘Bama in last season’s title game and hoisted the national championship trophy for just the second time in school history. None of which would have been possible without Deshaun Watson at the helm.
Having failed with the five quarterbacks they’ve drafted since 2007, it’d be easy for Cleveland to take the “Best Player Available” cop-out, and select Myles Garrett at No. 1. As difficult as finding a franchise quarterback can be, it gets even tougher once your team begins to win in spite of poor QB play. Just ask the Houston Texans, who’ve been a perennial playoff contender since 2009, and thus, stuck drafting in the mid-teens to early-20s, where you don’t typically find the top quarterback prospects waiting.
Houston’s been forced to sign mediocre free agents in attempts to fix their QB position. The results have been equally mediocre.
If the Browns want to reverse their fortunes, they need first to draft a capable quarterback, then allow him time to grow in a stable environment. Cleveland’s tendency to constantly turn over its coaching staff will rob any young QB of the opportunity to truly master one offensive system. Deshaun Watson’s intelligence, athleticism, and leadership qualities are similar to Marcus Mariota’s.
A broken leg in Week 15 is all that kept the Titans’ second-year star from finishing as a top 12 fantasy QB and taking his team to the playoffs, despite the lack of weapons at his disposal. Under Hue Jackson’s tutelage, Deshaun Watson could yield similar fantasy results early on in his career for the Browns.
San Francisco 49ers (1.02) – Mitch Trubisky (QB – North Carolina)
Not only did San Francisco’s 2-14 record cost Chip Kelly his job, but it was also the final nail in the coffin of general manager Trent Baalke. 2017 will now be the third straight season the 49ers enter with a new head coach.
To make matters more interesting, it appears this eventual head coach will have a good deal of input in whom the team chooses to replace Baalke in the front office. The rumor mill has placed Falcons’ offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan at the top of San Francisco’s wish list, a move which could increase the odds of the team taking a QB with the No. 2 pick.
Shanahan has had success with quarterbacks of varying skillsets, at various stages of their careers, from the 4,770-yard season he squeezed out of Matt Schaub with the Texans, in 2009, to the standout rookie campaign of Robert Griffin III, in 2012. In 2016, his second season working with Matt Ryan, Shanahan helped the veteran achieve a 5:1 TD-INT ratio, the highest of his nine-year career.
It’s evident Kyle Shanahan’s philosophies can be successful in the hands of a gifted quarterback. His time as offensive coordinator for both Washington and Cleveland have given him a taste of what it’s like to struggle with a passer who’s not up to the task. Should he become the 49ers’ head coach, finding a QB who can execute his system is likely to be job number one.
During the season, San Fran was rumored to have interest in Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer. Yet in recent weeks, Mitch Trubisky has been the passer atop most mock drafts. Trubisky’s game bares a resemblance to the QBs Shanahan’s had success with in the past. He’s accurate when given time, but gets erratic under pressure, tending to launch throws off his back foot.
A one-year starter for the Tar Heels, Trubisky threw 30 TDs and just five interceptions in 2016. Where Kizer and Watson played with future first-round picks at wideout, Trubisky’s receiving corps was unspectacular, yet sure-handed. They helped the quarterback post a 68% completion percentage on the year, dwarfing Kizer’s 58% mark.
Physically, DeShone Kizer is the better prospect. If he’s going to overtake the Notre Dame star, Mitch Trubisky will have to shine in the pre-draft workouts and come away looking like a polished, pro-ready product.
It may take some time for who ever lands in San Francisco to yield dividends for fantasy owners, however. The 49ers had the NFL’s worst receiving corps in 2016, accounting for a paltry 3,166 yards, the league’s lowest receiving total.
They do, however, have 12 draft picks, and close to $100 million in cap room to aid them in their rebuilding effort. Still, the odds of Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens walking through the door this offseason are slim.
Chicago Bears (1.03) – Myles Garrett – (DE – Texas A&M)
The Bears have won more than seven games just twice in the eight years since trading for Jay Cutler. With the team staring down a $16 million cap hit for Cutler’s services in 2017, compared to a $2 million dead money charge for releasing or trading him, it’s finally become economically viable for the team to move on from the mercurial quarterback.
John Fox has won a total of nine games over his first two seasons as the Bears’ head coach. At 3-13, Chicago was the only sub-.500 team in the NFC North – a division which put two teams into the playoffs, one of which made the conference title game.
Rumors of Fox’s demise swirled around the “Windy City” throughout December. Yet, the 62-year-old coach remains in charge heading into the offseason, albeit under a good deal of pressure to get the Bears back in contention, ASAP.
This fact invokes the question of whether the Bears would pursue a veteran signal caller before the draft, rather than sign up for the growing pains, (and losses) that come with grooming a rookie QB. Chicago will have options, as players like Kirk Cousins, Tony Romo, A.J. McCarron, Tyrod Taylor, and Mike Glennon could potentially become available via trade or free agency, this spring. Such a move would allow Chicago to take the draft’s best overall player, Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, with the No. 3 pick.
Garrett is one of the quickest, most powerful edge rushers to come into the league in recent years. Although his 2016 campaign was marred by an ankle injury which severely reduced his effectiveness, Garrett has earned a mulligan from draft evaluators on the strength of the 47 tackles for loss, 31 sacks, and seven forced fumbles he’s racked up over his three-year career in College Station. His game is frequently compared to fellow Texas A&M alum, Von Miller, who broke into the NFL with 60 sacks in his first five seasons.
The Bears’ defense already has a few pieces in place, including a pair of veteran inside linebackers, and a secondary which posted the fourth highest interception total in the league. Chicago was in the bottom 10 in sacks, however, and would benefit greatly from adding a freakish athlete like Garrett to play opposite Leonard Floyd, who finished a half-sack off the team lead as a rookie, in 2016.
Fox took the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl, led by a veteran QB named Jake Delhomme, and a defense with a pair of dominant pass rushers in Mike Rucker and a young Julius Peppers. He pulled off the trick again with the Broncos, aided by Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. Fox must turn things around next season, or he’ll be looking for work elsewhere in 2018.
If you see Chicago make a move for a veteran QB in March, there’s a good chance Garrett is flashing on their radar. Owners in IDP leagues know how difficult it is to find good edge rushers.
Myles Garrett has the raw talent to be a productive IDP asset very early in his career. He’ll be the most coveted defensive player come time for your rookie draft.
Tennessee Titans (1.05) – Mike Williams (WR – Clemson)
Clemson has turned out some of the NFL’s most dynamic receivers in recent years, including Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins and Martavis Bryant. Mike Williams will be the next Tigers’ wideout to try his hand(s) at the next level. After a dominant redshirt junior season, in which Williams and Deshaun Watson carried the Tigers to the National Title, the 6’3” receiver has solidified his standing as the best pass catcher in this year’s draft class.
The Titans desperately need a game breaker to bolster their passing attack. Marcus Mariota has performed admirably, considering how little he’s had to work with. He was one of five QB’s to throw at least 18 TDs inside the red zone without tossing an interception, in 2016.
Between the 20s, however, his TD/INT ratio slipped to 8:9. The addition of a receiver like Williams, combined with Tennessee’s duo of punishing running backs, would open passing lanes over the entire length of the football field, and help make the Titans’ offense a legitimate force in the AFC.
Based on the needs of the teams drafting ahead of them, there’s a decent chance Williams falls into the Titans lap. Yet, with a second first-round pick at No. 19, Tennessee could choose to address a different position early and still have the chance to acquire a difference-making wideout like Corey Davis, or John Ross, later in round one.
Every franchise quarterback deserves a go-to guy. If Marcus Mariota gets Mike Williams to line up on his flank, the QB’s third-year progression could be astronomical, and make both players fantasy studs for years to come.
Carolina Panthers (1.08) – Leonard Fournette – (RB – LSU)
The Panthers struggled to a 6-10 record in 2016, falling victim to the post-Super Bowl jinx which sinks so many defending conference champions. They lost five of their first six games in 2016, before going 5-5 to end the year. About the only time, their offense made noise is when Cam Newton was telling anyone who would listen that the referees weren’t doing enough to look out for his well-being.
Carolina’s running game floundered, barely averaging 4.0 YPC. Their lead back, Jonathan Stewart, finished with a 3.8 YPC average, and ran for just 824 yards, making 2016 the second consecutive season his rushing production has declined. This, despite handling the third most carries of his career. Between injuries, and the fact he was trapped in a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams for his first seven years in the league, Jonathan Stewart has posted just one 1,000 yard season over his nine-year career, and that occurred in 2009.
A decline in productivity, combined with an increase in salary typically equals a player who’s soon to be a cap casualty. The Panthers stand to gain $5 million by moving on from their feature back this offseason.
The running game has been an integral part of Carolina’s success, yet with all the concern surrounding Cam Newton’s health, the team needs to ensure the QB isn’t the team’s primary rushing threat. With the No. 8 pick in round one, the Panthers will have their pick of two dynamic running backs to start rebuilding that support system.
Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette bring different skills to the table. Fournette’s devastating mix of power and speed fits the smashmouth style we’ve grown accustomed to seeing the Panthers play. Cook, however, is the more dynamic receiver, and a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball.
Carolina couldn’t go wrong with either player, but teams grow an affinity for the things which have brought them success in the past. For this reason, Leonard Fournette seems the more likely selection at 1.08.
