A.J. Reed disappointed plenty last season but is a quality post-hype sleeper
Generally, a first base prospect is not much of a prospect. He is more a player unable to hold down a position elsewhere in the park due to defensive inadequacies. First base only prospects all have flaws and give their teams very little flexibility. Looking back at the 2012 list of top prospects, Jon Singleton was the number one first base prospect, ahead of Cron, Matt Adams and Hunter Morris. None of them have amounted to much, although Cron will again appear on many sleeper lists this season. On the same prospects list, Wil Myers and Christian Yelich were both listed as outfielders with Nolan Arenado and Miguel Sano at third base. All four could eventually end up at first base and in Myers’ case, it has already happened. First base only prospects have nowhere else to go.
Check out our 2017 consensus rankings 
5. Dan Vogelbach (SEA)
It was only a matter of time before the stocky 24-year old was traded to an AL team, which is exactly what happened in September when the Cubs sent him to Seattle in exchange for SP Mike Montgomery.
Although not blessed with overwhelming power, Vogelbach is a disciplined hitter with the ability to go the other way. Defensively he is improving but DH would appear to be his eventual position.
Over six years in the minors, the left-hander slashed .286/.391/.481, with .923 OPS in 133 games in Triple-A last year. Nothing should be read into the eight games he played in the big leagues in September, striking out six times and recording one solitary hit.
With Nelson Cruz embedded at DH in Seattle, Vogelbach will start 2017 in a platoon with right-hander Danny Valencia. Patience at the plate, coupled with power to all fields is a combination that could see him become a middle-of-the-order bat for the Mariners for years to come.
4. Casey Gillaspie (TB)
Former 20th pick from the 2014 draft posted .840 OPS over 85 games in Double-A in 2016 before thriving in Triple-A with a slash line of .307/.389/.520. He hit a career-high 19 home runs last season, split between those two levels.
The switch-hitter may never be an All-Star first baseman, but his plate discipline and ability to put the ball in play could make him very valuable in fantasy and a linchpin of the lineup in Tampa Bay.
Currently, Brad Miller is expected to start the season as the Rays’ first baseman but he will need to build on last year’s breakout to keep the role otherwise Gillaspie will get a shot at bringing his high on-base skills to Tropicana Field.
3. A.J. Reed (HOU)
Although AJ Reed exceeded his service time rookie limits in 2016 and so will be omitted from many prospect lists, the left-hander has only accumulated 122 big league at-bats and will still be rookie-eligible in some leagues.
He was clearly the top first baseman on prospects charts before the season started and continued to impress by slugging .556 over 70 Triple-A games. Transition to the Majors was difficult, with the left-hander slashing .164/.270/.262 in 45 games, severely denting the hype that surrounded him.
Unless the Astros secure the services of one of the remaining veteran free-agent sluggers, Reed will get the opportunity to compete with Yulieski Gurriel for the first base job in Spring Training. Given his proven power and plate discipline in the Minor Leagues, it is way too early to consign the 23-year-old to the same reject pile as Jon Singleton.
2. Cody Bellinger (LA)
The Dodgers’ top prospect is one of the most sought after players in the minors, having been demanded in trade talks by the Twins for Brian Dozier, Yankees for Michael Pineda and the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen. Yet the 21-year-old remains destined to take over from Adrian Gonzalez when the veteran becomes a free agent in 2019.
The left-hander spent last season at Double-A Tulsa, slashing .263/.359/.484 with 23 home runs and 65 RBI over 114 games. He was promoted to Triple-A for his final three games of the season, going deep three times.
The fourth-round pick from the 2013 draft enhanced his reputation with .981 OPS in the Arizona Fall League whilst securing a spot on the AFL Top Prospects team.
His floor his high but his ceiling is as an All-Star. Although Bellinger will not make a significant impact for a couple of years, he could see playing time at the end of 2017.
1. Joshua Bell (PIT)
Pirates’ first baseman Josh Bell catapulted himself into fantasy relevance by sending a pinch-hit Grand Slam out of PNC Park against the Cubs on July 9. The switch-hitter went deep for a career-high 17 home runs in 2016 in 549 at-bats, split between Triple-A and the Majors.
Opportunity is one of the biggest limiting factors faced by prospects, yet the 24-year-old is expected to be Pirates’ first baseman on Opening Day, batting second ahead of Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte. Although he lacked the power numbers in the Minors that you would like from your first base prospect (just 44 home runs in 487 games), Bell is physically impressive with 25+ home run potential.
Unlike so many young sluggers, Josh Bell has exemplary control of the strike zone, with more walks than strikeouts in his brief 35 game stint in the Majors and 1:1 walk to strikeout rate in the Minors in 2015. This skill could help him develop into a top-10 first baseman.
Worth Mentioning
Bobby Bradley of the Indians has prodigious power. The 20-year-old led his league in home runs for both of the last two years, winning the Carolina League MVP in 2016 as he set career-highs with 29 home runs and 102 RBI. He has yet to play above High-A and with the signing of Edwin Encarnacion to join Carlos Santana, there will not be an opening at 1B/DH in Cleveland for the next couple of years. This will allow Bradley work on reducing his high strikeout rate, which looks to be the only thing capable of stopping him from reaching the Majors. A poster-boy for three-true-outcomes, Bradley will need to continue to hit when he is promoted to Double-A Akron in 2017 to help determine whether his career path will emulate Chris Davis, Chris Carter or Joey Gallo. Maybe 2017 sees his fantasy value at its highest.
The long-awaited power finally arrived for the Mets’ Dominic Smith in 2016 as the former first-round pick hit 14 home runs with 91 RBI. In fact, he hit more home runs last year than he had in the previous three seasons combined. The left-hander likes to take a walk, with 50 in 130 games in Double-A and an impressively low 13.7% strikeout rate, to go along with his .302/.367/.457 slash line. Dominic Smith is excellent defensively and has hit over .300 in the last two seasons. This latest power surge will re-established his status as a top prospect. Although he may never develop 30 home run power, Smith could mature into a useful big league first baseman similar to Eric Hosmer or Brandon Belt.
More Prospects:
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