Defense Wins Championships (Week 14)

The Lions D/ST has quietly been a top-12 unit this season

Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for five straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.

While the fantasy football playoffs get all of the hype, the truth is many of us have been in de facto playoff games for weeks. After all, while the playoffs themselves are just a cut to top 8 or top 6 or top X, the fact that makes them so meaningful is that they are single elimination.

That said, if you are still reading this, congratulations: You’re in. Whether your playoffs start this week or next, if you are still alive and in a single elimination game, your playoffs are upon you. Week 13 was certainly a weird one, and for those of us who started the Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, I hope your tilt passes quickly. DVOA be damned, stick a fork in them; they’re dead and gone. Consensus rankings missed this one too, but thankfully, it was the only truly disappointing finish (though an honorable mention might go to Seattle, whose top tier score started to break in concert with Earl Thomas’s leg).

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Overall, the projection model again performed in line with expectation, with a rank correlation of 0.283. The biggest misses were the aforementioned Eagles, followed by Detroit (projected 29th but finishing 9th), Tampa Bay (projected 21st but finishing 4th), and Indianapolis (projected 25th but finishing 9th). The projection model most outperformed consensus rankings on Chicago, Buffalo, Miami, and Tampa Bay. It most underperformed consensus rankings on Minnesota, Kansas City, the NY Giants, and San Francisco.

Since Week 1, the average rank correlation has been 0.317; since Week 4 (where 2015’s effect on the algorithm was eliminated entirely) it has been 0.344. Since rank correlation can be difficult for everybody to grok, by comparison, FantasyPros ECR sits at a very steady and respectable mark of 0.258 on the season (and 0.247 since Week 4).

As always, we look backward just long enough to avoid getting blindsided by the games on the horizon. Time for our usual look forward.

Week 14 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.

1. Minnesota Vikings, 10.2 – Tier 1 (@ JAX)
2. Cincinnati Bengals, 9.9 – Tier 1 (@ CLE)
3. Detroit Lions, 9.8 – Tier 1 (v CHI)
4. Miami Dolphins, 9.2 – Tier 1.5 (v ARI)
5. New England Patriots, 8.8 – Tier 2 (v BAL)
6. Atlanta Falcons, 8.7 – Tier 2 (@ LA)
7. Arizona Cardinals, 8.7 – Tier 2 (@ MIA)
8. Seattle Seahawks, 8.2 – Tier 3 (@ GB)
9. Kansas City Chiefs, 8.0 – Tier 3 (v OAK)
10. Carolina Panthers, 8.0 – Tier 3 (v SD)
11. San Francisco 49ers, 7.8 – Tier 3 (v NYJ)
12. Denver Broncos, 7.8 – Tier 3 (@ TEN)
13. Indianapolis Colts, 7.7 – Tier 3 (v HOU)
14. Washington Redskins, 7.6 – Tier 3.5 (@ PHI)
15. Tennessee Titans, 7.5 – Tier 3.5 (v DEN)
16. San Diego Chargers, 7.4 – Tier 3.5 (@ CAR)

Byes are done for good in 2016. On the same tier as San Diego are Pittsburgh (7.4).

Tier 1 – Minnesota, Cincinnati, Detroit

Has there been a more up-and-down team in 2016 than the Minnesota Vikings? Starting before Week 1 had even kicked off, Vikings fans were the loudest (and arguably most obnoxious) about their team being disrespected by the projection model. Three strong opening weeks – including dominating wins against the supposedly good offenses of Carolina and Green Bay – had them reveling in cries of “I told you so!”

Then, after scoring six points or fewer in Weeks 8, 9, 10, and 12, it was all quiet on the northern front. The stench of lutefisk was gone, the world rejoiced, and Vikings D/ST owners were left with a haunting sense of doom.

Well, rejoice once again: The Vikings are back. At least for now. They play Week 14 on the road, but it’s a game in Jacksonville, so it hardly counts. Blake Bortles is still the QB, and 42 games into his NFL career, the Jaguars QB has more pick-6s than he does wins. Do not overthink this one; start the Vikings with as much confidence as you did two months ago. Even if the Vikings lose this one (and they may very well lose, being only three-point favorites), they profile so well defensively that they should be fine either way.

Joining the Vikings on this tier are another fairly obvious play, the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Bengals have been aggressively mediocre all year long, they have put up a couple of quietly strong games in a row, and most importantly, their opponent is the Cleveland Browns. Like the Vikings, the Bengals are playing on the road, and like the Jaguars, the Browns are horrible. The Browns are still sitting as the most generous team in the league to opposing D/STs, allowing five points per game more than average. It does not matter that the Bengals are mediocre. It does not matter that the Browns are coming off a bye. These factors only serve to temper the projection slightly, not to derail it by any means. Like the Vikings, the Bengals can be started with extreme confidence this week.

That leaves just one team in the top tier, and it was a bit of a surprise to see them here. The Detroit Lions have not been a defensive powerhouse this year, but from a fantasy perspective, they have not actually been that bad. Without looking it up, could you guess where their D/ST sits through 13 weeks?

Would it surprise you to learn they are tied for 12th overall with Buffalo? Ahead of the Patriots, ahead of the Dolphins, Titans, Rams, Bengals, Redskins, Texans, and Raiders. In Week 14, they get a very vulnerable Bears team at home, who Vegas expects to be the worst offense in the NFL for the week. The Lions are eight-point favorites and this one could get ugly. Temper expectations as you would with any mediocre D/ST, but the matchup is extremely favorable, and garbage time could come early in this one.

Tier 1.5 – Miami

The Miami Dolphins snapped their winning streak on Sunday, but that matters more for the Narratives Win Championships column than it does for us here. In Week 14, the Dolphins are at home and facing the Arizona Cardinals, which coming into the season would be enough to scare us away entirely. Arizona, however, has been the 8th most generous team to opposing D/STs this year, even in spite of David Johnson’s singularly ridiculous season. Sadly, Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense has simply been that bad. In fact, the Cardinals have been a better matchup (9.6 points per game) this year than the Bears have (9.4 points per game) before adjusting for strength of schedule.

A lot of the same cautions given above for Detroit and Cincinnati can apply here. The Dolphins have a mediocre D/ST. The Cardinals still could be better than they have shown themselves to be, however unlikely that may be. On balance, though, the Dolphins make an excellent entry at D/ST for Week 14, and with an ownership rate barely above 55%, make a great backup for streamers missing out on the Bengals (50%) or Lions (17%).

Tier 2 – New England, Atlanta, Arizona

The New England Patriots appear at first glance to be an average D/ST, and overall, they have been. They have been extraordinarily consistent though. In Weeks where they had a good matchup, they’ve scored an average of 8.1 points in 10 games. In their remaining four games, they’ve averaged just 3.3 points. Week 14 is certainly not a bad matchup, but getting to play the Ravens in Foxboro is also not a particularly good matchup. Expecting the Patriots to score just above their season average of 7.8 points per game has us arriving at their Week 14 projection of 8.8. The floor is low, the ceiling is fairly high, and anybody with the Patriots D/ST on their roster should probably just fire them up and focus on the rest of their lineup for the week.

The Atlanta Falcons, owned in barely 7% of leagues, show up with their highest ranking of the season as they travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams. Let’s get this out of the way first: the Falcons defense is really, really bad. Let’s also get this out of the way: the Rams offense is really, really bad.

Got it? Good. This is not a play for the faint of heart.

What the Falcons do well though, they do really well. Their offense is damn good. Coming into Week 13, they had claimed the top spot in DVOA, buoyed by their 2nd-ranked offense (and masking their 24th-ranked defense). Favored by nearly a touchdown even on the road, the Falcons should force Jared Goff to throw the ball, a role in which is he is still not quite ready for. Missing Desmond Trufant is a bit of a dagger here, but the Falcons will be put in enough high-leverage situations for their D/ST to make up for it. They should not be targeted as a first choice for anybody, but as a backup plan for streamers, they could very well be golden in Week 14.

Rounding out the tier is perhaps the second-half’s most disappointing D/ST, Arizona. Over their last  six games, the Cardinals are ranked 20th overall in D/ST scoring, clocking in with just 6.3 points per game. They have been allowing nearly 30 points per game over that stretch, notching barely two sacks per game, and have just two interceptions since Week 7. It has been a train wreck all around, so why the relatively strong showing in Week 14? They face the team that gave up 15 D/ST points last week to the Ravens, Miami.

The Miami Dolphins are a very strange foe. On the one hand, they have weapons all over their offense, and their offensive line has fixed most of the problem that plagued them for most of the last couple of seasons. Ryan Tannehill has really been impressive. Jay Ajayi looks like the player we thought he could be coming out of Boise State. When everything is clicking, the Dolphins are a dangerous offense. On the other hand, they have looked downright bad at times, especially when their offensive line fails to give Tannehill the time he needs. Nursing multiple injuries across the line, this might be a time to wait and see who plays and who doesn’t come Sunday. I would stay away from the Cardinals if I had the luxury, but they make a fine play in deeper or more competitive leagues.

Tier 3 – Seattle, Kansas City, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Indianapolis

In reality, this tier could probably be a little bit larger, with a handful of teams coming in a half-tier behind. It is also a bit of a strange list of teams, consisting of universally-owned Seattle, Denver, and Kansas City alongside dumpster fires San Francisco, Indianapolis, and whatever you would like to call the Panthers.

First thing’s first: Seattle is not the same team without Earl Thomas. We have gone over injuries before in this column, and the conclusion usually is “They don’t matter (much) (usually)” – Thomas, like J.J. Watt, is one of those cases where it probably does matter, and their opponent Green Bay is one of the matchups where his absence should be sorely missed. Many people will not have the luxury to bench Seattle here, but if you can, you probably should.

The same conclusion is true for Kansas City, although for very different reasons. Their game is at home, they have Justin Houston back, but their opponent is the worst matchup for D/STs in 2016: Oakland. The Raiders have averaged a concession of just 2.1 points per game this year, including four negative scores, nine scores of 3 or fewer, and just a single score of 8 points or higher. No one could be faulted for starting the Chiefs, especially if your roster space is really tight. Though, in a must-win playoff game, it is a really tough sell.

Sticking with the AFC West, the Denver Broncos probably can distinguish themselves from the other studs on this tier, even though they go into Tennessee as underdogs (at least as of Tuesday morning). The Broncos still have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Titans have been an above-average matchup through 12 games. Temper expectations, and this game looks a lot worse than it did back in September, but while I would be looking for excuses to sit Seattle and Kansas City, I would be looking for excuses to start the Broncos.

Last week, the 49ers and Bears were both recommended as potential starts, although without any measure of confidence in either. The Bears came through huge while the 49ers disappointed. This week, the 49ers have the chance at redemption, getting their shot at Petty and the Jets, and it’s at home to boot. The Jets have been the second-best matchup for opposing D/STs over the whole season, although with a new QB it is very difficult to extrapolate that and expect it to continue; but in limited work, Petty has flash a little bit but has been mostly garbage. There never is a time to start the second-worst D/ST in the game with confidence, but the option is here for anybody who needs them.

The final two teams on this tier, Carolina and Indianapolis, both get home games against decent matchups (San Diego and Houston, respectively). The Panthers have been the better defense, but the Texans have been the better matchup. Both are fine streamers in deeper leagues, but nowhere near the caliber of the tier 1 or tier 2 plays above.

For those of you stuck in this quagmire of tier 3 options, I would recommend them in the following order: Denver, Kansas City, Seattle, Carolina, Indianapolis, and then San Francisco.

Tier 3.5/4 and below

The Philadelphia Eagles are dead to me. Their most recent scores from Weeks 8 through 13: 5 points, 6 points, 8 points, 2 points, 1 point, 1 point for a grand total of 23 points. Over the same stretch, there have been six different 20+ point scores by other D/STs! We will have to reevaluate their worth in Week 16 with a decent matchup at home, but until then, they can be left alone pretty safely.

For everybody who has been reading along since Week 1, I would like to extend a very special “Thank you” to each and every one of you. Spending Monday nights and Tuesday mornings going over the week’s matchups really makes the season go by so much quicker, and even though it can be a grind, it leaves a huge void after the regular season ends every year. I truly hope each of you makes bank this season in your leagues, and regardless of the result, hope that you have had (and continue to have) fun.

Best of luck in Week 14!

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