The outlook for the Ravens D/ST’s will hinge on the starting QB they face Week 9
The Vikings were an obvious disappointment, hauling in just 5 MFL points, but disappointments like theirs are easy to write off: D/STs as good as the Vikings, in a matchup as good as theirs was against the Bears, are impossible to avoid. And Week 8 was projected to be a low-scoring week overall. This held true, given the Vikings kept pace with (or outscored) all but approximately six D/ST.
As we highlighted last week, though, the top tier of the projection model has been the most bizarre this season. Through last week, they were underperforming by nearly 2 points per game, while the rest of the model was pretty spot on. With one more week of data, we have one more week where the top tier disappointed. It is not quite time to consider this systemic. It could easily just be random, but it is something to keep in mind going forward.
The tier 2 D/STs from last week – Denver, Kansas City, and the New York Jets – averaged over 13 points per game. No disappointment there, although Jets owners might feel a little gross after Week 8. Their 6 points was good for 11th overall, but again that was thanks to a low-scoring week and six whole teams on bye.
The third tier was a little more hit or miss, but still nothing too killer. Arizona scored just 4 and Philadelphia scored just 5. Both are still probably good going forward. The Patriots may have been the biggest disappointment on the week with just 3 points, and given how thoroughly they clobbered the Bills, their defense should have expected more. The Patriots bye comes at a very awkward time, given they have been lackluster recently and have strong matchups after, so they will force a difficult choice in nearly 90% of leagues.
On the flip side, San Diego and Carolina both came through very well on the third tier, backed by D/ST TDs for each. Seattle also snagged a touchdown and finished with a respectable score of 11. The rest of the tier scored between 5 and 8 points each. Even with the very good scores at the top, the picture was pretty bleak for the average D/ST in Week 8, and they averaged just 6.2 points each. That’s nearly a full point per game below normal in what was projected to be a struggle of a week to begin with.
Overall, D/STs in Week 8 followed fairly close to the script. The rank correlation for our projection model was a season-high 0.479 (Fantasy Pros ECR came in with a respectable 0.278).
Week 9 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.
- Minnesota Vikings, 11.4 – Tier 1 (vs DET)
- Kansas City Chiefs, 11.1 – Tier 1 (vs JAX)
- Dallas Cowboys, 9.4 – Tier 2 (at CLE)
- Seattle Seahawks, 9.1 – Tier 2 (vs BUF)
- Oakland Raiders, 9.1 – Tier 2 (vs DEN)
- Carolina Panthers, 9.0 – Tier 2 (vs LA)
- Baltimore Ravens, 8.7 – Tier 2 (vs PIT)
- San Diego Chargers, 8.6 – Tier 2 (vs TEN)
- Philadelphia Eagles, 8.5 – Tier 2 (at NYG)
- Miami Dolphins, 8.3 – Tier 3 (vs NYJ)
- Green Bay Packers, 8.1 – Tier 3 (vs IND)
- Denver Broncos, 7.8 – Tier 3 (at OAK)
- New York Jets, 7.5 – Tier 3 (at MIA)
- New York Giants, 7.5 – Tier 3 (vs PHI)
- Atlanta Falcons, 7.1 – Tier 4 (at TB)
- Buffalo Bills, 6.7 – Tier 4 (at SEA)
On bye this week: Arizona, Chicago, Washington, Cincinnati, Houston, and New England. The Bears, Redskins, Bengals, and Texans are all easy drops in most formats. The Patriots are tough – bye week hell will probably force a majority of owners to drop them, but they are probably a strong add for Week 10 vs Seattle. The Cardinals should be held if possible with a Week 10 game vs San Francisco.
Tier 1 – Minnesota and Kansas City
The Minnesota Vikings were really bad on Monday night. They are also still the best D/ST in the game right now, and there is absolutely no reason to panic. One of our core tenets goes back to being a home team. Home teams are more likely to be favored by Vegas, more likely to win, and more likely to have the favorable game expectation. The reverse is obviously all true too with regard to road teams, and the Vikings fell prey to a mediocre Bears team as a result. It would take at least two more dud games in good matchups for me to start to worry.
Kansas City is back in a big way. Aside from a dud in Week 1 and a bad matchup in Week 4, the Chiefs have hit double digits every other week. They had been getting turnovers and done alright on the scoreboard, but Week 8 was the first time the Chiefs pass rush had really broken out. Justin Houston is still not quite ready and will probably not play on Sunday, but the rest of the team is good enough… and their opponent is still the Jacksonville Jaguars. With a stretch of four games vs Jacksonville, at Carolina, vs Tampa Bay, and at Denver, the Chiefs have a very good thing going and should be the first priority on most waiver wires. They are available in more than 30% of leagues.
Tier 2 – Dallas, Seattle, Oakland, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Philadelphia
Most of what was written above about Minnesota could be written about Philadelphia. They are still good, they are still above streaming. It takes more than a single dud game to sink a good team’s outlook, and the Eagles actually did fine on Sunday from a fantasy standpoint. Prior to the late punt-turned-run in the 4th Quarter, the Dallas Cowboys were getting stymied. Between the touchdown they gave up afterward and the touchdown in overtime, the Eagles D/ST dropped from a solid 9 points down to 5 points, and had the Cowboys simply punted the narrative would be vastly different right now.
The Eagles are the back of this tier, but they are at the top priority if available. It should go without saying, but the universally-owned Seahawks are also in that boat in case your league somehow shows them available.
So far through eight weeks, the Cleveland Browns have not been the most profitable fade (they’ve been close), but they have been the most consistent. Every score has been between 6 and 11, but looking at their finish each week is even more illuminating:
The Browns’ opponent’s D/ST each week has finished 3rd, 10th, 13th, 11th, 8th, 14th, 14h, and 6th in weekly standings through eight games. Consistency itself is overrated in fantasy scoring, but consistently good is still always good. The Cowboys defense is good enough for this to continue another week, and they are the top streamer where both the Eagles and Chiefs are already owned.
Otherwise, we are starting to see a little bit of separation finally after the obviously good D/STs. Dallas is sitting at 12th overall in points per game, San Diego is 10th, Baltimore is 7th, and the Panthers are 9th. All five of those are on this tier in Week 9, but the Panthers might be the odd one out. They have a great matchup this week and so can be started freely in Week 9, but their scoring has been buoyed by 3 D/ST TDs. Thankfully, we can just table that for another week since the Rams are an obviously good matchup now. Given the Panthers are at home in both of the next week weeks and are passed their bye, it is probably time to give them the benefit of the doubt over the rest of the tier.
Both the Chargers and Ravens have good matchups in Week 9, and both are similar D/STs. The Ravens get what would have been a bad matchup last month, but Landry Jones still figures to start for their opponent. The Chargers are at home for a game against the Titans. Both D/STs have excellent matchups next week. The Ravens are the slightly better choice because they have already passed their bye, but choosing between these two is splitting hairs otherwise.
The last team on this tier is the Raiders. They are not a good defense, despite being a very good team overall, and the matchup is decidedly average. With a bye next week, the Raiders do not have any future consideration either, and so can probably be ignored for other options in the top three tiers. They only have 11 sacks on the season and have gotten no more than two in a game all year.
Tier 3 – Miami, Green Bay, Denver, NY Jets, NY Giants
A game at Oakland is not just the worst matchup for opposing D/STs on Denver’s schedule – it’s the worst matchup in all of the NFL. The Raiders opponents are averaging just 2.4 points per game, by far the best (worst?) in the league. This includes games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Ravens who are all very solid in their own right. It would be silly to bench or drop the Broncos this week, especially with another week with six teams on bye, but definitely lower your expectations for their scoring.
Green Bay is back after a one-week hiatus (games against the Falcons will do that to almost every D/ST), and they should pick up where they left off in Week 7. Through eight weeks, the Packers have just two bad outings; the aforementioned Falcons game and a game against the Cowboys (behind Oakland, the second-worst matchup for opposing D/STs). Otherwise, they’ve been fine, and they get a very bad Colts team at home in Week 9. Look for another game where they can leverage their pass rush well and finish with a solid score. Next week is at Tennessee, so the Packers are another strong multi-week option to add to the list.
The Dolphins and Jets are playing each other and are both on this tier. The Dolphins are probably the better offense and defense, and they are the home team here, so they make an obvious choice between the two. With Miami available in nearly 95% of leagues, they are going to be a backup plan for a lot of free agency moves this week.
Tier 4 and below
The Buffalo Bills followed up a disappointing Week 7 with a disappointing Week 8, and they have an awkward matchup in Week 9 before their bye. It sucks for Bills owners, because they have been too good to drop, and probably remain so today. The matchup against Seattle looks good on paper, and on some level it definitely is. However, it’s also a road game, and as the season keeps showing us, it’s harder for road D/STs to come out ahead. Most teams that kept the Bills on the roster probably already have a plan for this week and next, so last week should not change things, but one more disappointing showing on Sunday and the bye week will be very difficult to manage.
Overall, Week 9 provides some very powerful options. Where available, Kansas City and Philadelphia should be considered must-adds in most formats, and streamers have some solid options behind them that are viable for at least one more week. Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, and Green Bay all fit into that category, and they can be targeted in that order. Oakland and Miami are both solid streamers for one week only.
Best of luck!
