The hardest part about projecting D/STs is accounting for the defensive touchdowns. This model takes a very simplistic approach to determining that: Every fumble expected by every team is weighted equally, and each interception expected by every team is weighted equally. We assume the touchdown conversion rate is similar across every team, and that the differences from team-to-team are either minor or negligible, and so really, we are trying to model sacks and turnovers (with a small nod to Vegas for the expected score).
This means that while it is really easy to point out which defenses are good starts in any given week…
- Find good defenses in good matchups (home, favored, low-scoring) for the top tier
- Mix in the good defenses with bad matchups with some mediocre teams in good matchups on the next tier or two
- Sort through what’s left, mostly teams in horrible matchups or bad defenses, and grab the few that stand out
…it is very difficult to say which of those good starts will be there at the end of the week. Those touchdowns are relatively rare events, but they are exceedingly common at the top of the scoreboards each week. Of the 10 D/ST scores of 20 or higher this year, each of them involved a D/ST TD, and three of them had multiples. For the 24 D/ST scores of 15 or higher, 71% of them involved a touchdown. Nearly half of the scores of 11 points or more required a touchdown. Touchdowns are clearly good.
But the touchdowns don’t always go to the teams with the most turnovers. Sometimes they even go to teams with zero turnovers! Sometimes things go as expected. But when the largest component of D/ST scoring is also the most variable, things get tricky, and that is why the position is far more unpredictable than receivers or runners.
Overall, the picture for Week 10 is about as blurry as it normally is. Our rank correlation for the week was 0.398.
Week 10 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.
- Arizona Cardinals, 11.0 – Tier 1 (vs SF)
- Baltimore Ravens, 10.4 – Tier 1 (vs CLE)
- Washington Redskins, 9.7 – Tier 1.5 (vs MIN)
- New York Jets, 9.1 – Tier 2 (vs LA)
- Carolina Panthers, 9.0 – Tier 2 (vs KC)
- Kansas City Chiefs, 8.9 – Tier 2 (at CAR)
- San Diego Chargers, 8.7 – Tier 2 (vs MIA)
- Minnesota Vikings, 8.3 – Tier 3 (at WAS)
- New York Giants, 8.1 – Tier 3 (vs CIN)
- Houston Texans, 8.1 – Tier 3 (at JAX)
- Los Angeles Rams, 8.0 – Tier 3 (at NYJ)
- Philadelphia Eagles, 7.8 – Tier 3 (vs ATL)
- Chicago Bears, 7.8 – Tier 3 (at TB)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7.4 – Tier 4 (vs CHI)
- New England Patriots, 7.2 – Tier 4 (vs SEA)
- Green Bay Packers, 7.0 – Tier 4 (at TEN)
Also on tier 4 are New Orleans (7.0) and Denver (6.7). On bye this week are Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Oakland. Buffalo should probably be kept if you have the space, but can be dropped if not. They have great matchups and scary matchups alternating in their schedule.
Tier 1 – Arizona and Baltimore
The Cardinals have cemented themselves as one of the league’s premium D/STs, and they’re now past their bye week. They’re plug-and-play for the rest of the season and probably in the top couple of tiers more often than not. In Week 10 they are at home against the 49ers, so expect few points allowed, many big plays, and a great opportunity for a huge score. San Francisco is conceding more than 10 D/ST points per game, and the Cardinals have averaged over ten per game on their own. With a great schedule going forward, the Cardinals are in the top tier of rest of season (ROS) D/STs.
While Baltimore was a premium streaming choice in Week 9, they appear to be somewhat better in Week 10. The Ravens had a deceptively good matchup, but there’s nothing deceptive about Cleveland: they’re still a good D/ST fade. The Browns conceded 8 points (projected 9.4) in a tier 2 matchup last week, but Baltimore is slightly better than the Cowboys and gets to play at home instead of on the road. The Ravens schedule is about to get fairly rough so it might be the end of the line, but for the 50% of leagues where they are unowned, that should be changed immediately.
Tier 1.5 – Washington
The Redskins are not quite good enough to be in tier 1, but they’re not quite weak enough to be considered tier 2. First, the pros: Washington is at home, they are favored, the game forecasts as low-scoring, and the Redskins defense matches up well against the Vikings. Minnesota will have difficulty exploiting Washington’s weak run defense.
There is a decent chance that the Vikings are both better than they have been, but nowhere near as good as they were to open the season. Either way, their offense does not look like anything to be afraid of right now.
Tier 2 – NY Jets, Carolina, Kansas City, and San Diego
As a whole, the top couple of tiers in 2016 have had numerous streaming options in most weeks. Week 10 is no different. Both the Jets and Chargers are hovering around 50% ownership right now, and with both teams in favorable home matchups, that number should climb all week. The Chargers are the more desirable of the two, however, both teams have byes next week and would probably be dropped anyway.
The Chargers D/ST were one of the heroes of Week 9. Their 15 points led all scorers, and they have now put up scores of 12 or higher in 5 of 9 games this year. They have also been remarkable with converting their good matchups to good scores and their bad matchups into bad scores. With their opponent in Week 10 the Dolphins at home, the matchup is good and we can expect good things. The Chargers are a top 10 D/ST through 9 weeks of the season, and it should be no surprise to see them here. As mentioned above though, it will be hard to justify keeping them through the bye. If you can though, you will be rewarded with one of the best schedules after their bye – three top 10 matchups, one top 16 matchup, and one bad matchup, including Cleveland in Week 16.
Kansas City should be universally owned, and it is still a plug-and-play D/ST for the most part. Week 9 was their fourth consecutive double-digit game, and the streak could easily continue into a fifth. The Panthers aren’t the scary matchup they were last year; through 9 weeks, they are the third most generous team to opposing D/STs.
Speaking of Carolina though, their ownership has creeped back out of the streamable range, now owned in almost 85% of leagues. They can be started with confidence against the Chiefs, and with another home game next week could be a multi-week option as well. Kansas City is not a good matchup, but their offense is not good enough to shy away from our usual profile of home teams favored in low-scoring games. Vegas has the Chiefs with the fifth-lowest team scoring total of the week, so it checks all of the boxes.
That just leaves the Jets. They are a bad defense, but they’re favored at home in a low-scoring game. Sound familiar? There is no need to overthink some of these. The Jets have zero merit of being held through their bye next week, so they can be kept or discarded otherwise as needed. Those of you in leagues that count yardage and points against should also probably look elsewhere, because this is the type of play that can be very scoring-dependent.
On these top two tiers, streamers should target the NY Giants (See below) and Baltimore, with Washington, San Diego, and NY Jets following in that order. Managers looking to stash an extra D/ST through the playoffs should choose San Diego first instead. Those looking to maximize Week 10 should choose Baltimore, while the Giants are the balanced, steady choice.
Tier 3 – Minnesota, New York Giants, Houston, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Chicago
The most interesting teams on this tier are Minnesota and Philadelphia. Both teams have been disappointing for fantasy for most of the last two weeks, with Minnesota averaging 4.5 points per game and Philadelphia with 5.5. It’s not yet time to panic; while streaming is great for averaging a top 8 or top 10 D/ST score over a season, it will rarely eclipse one of the top plug-and-play options at the position. Both of these two teams were top 5 defenses in Football Outsiders’ DVOA going into last week, and both should still provide returns rest of season.
Both also have very awkward matchups coming up, so you’re going to have to accept that you’ll be starting them each week in the face of mediocre projections. Both teams should still outperform streaming though.
The rest of this tier consists of some of the more underappreciated defenses of 2016. Again by DVOA, the Giants, Rams, and Texans rank with the 10th, 11th, and 12th-ranked defenses on the season. Chicago is not far behind at 15th. I would target the Giants first, followed by the Rams, the Bears, and then the Texans.
The Giants are the only team of the group to get two consecutive home games, with a MNF tilt versus the Bengals this week, a game at home against the Bears next week, and even get an away game in Cleveland after that. They’re a top 10 defense, a top 16 D/ST, and the Bengals have been virtually league-average when it comes to their matchup strength in 2016. They are not the most exciting choice in Week 10, but taken on balance, their next three weeks are as good as any streamer.
The Texans are the weakest choice in the tier. Their game is on the road, and they have been extraordinarily mediocre through the first 9 weeks. Their game next week is a neutral field game on Monday against the league’s worst matchup, Oakland. They also play 4 of their next 5 games away from Houston, where they have been horrible. They can be justified for Week 10 but that is where this one ends.
That leaves the Rams, who I think might be the most talented team of the group if they played to their potential, and the Bears, who have been quietly putting up solid performances all season. Flip a coin if all you care about is this week, but the Rams have the better matchup next week.
Tier 4 and below
It feels weird to go an entire writeup without mentioning the Denver Broncos. Denver is coming off of a negative score against Oakland, and @OAK is the toughest matchup in the entire NFL right now. Playing on the road in New Orleans is not that much better, but the Broncos are still too good to drop, and are probably too good to sit. They are on bye next week though, so if you correctly plan to keep them through their bye week, you can maybe justify an extra week on the bench right now too.
The Packers were one of my favorite teams to start the season, but they are going through a bit of a rough patch. They have only been bad in two games this year, and both were bad matchups – this week at Tennessee is not yet a bad matchup, even as the Titans have looked better. The Packers are still a steady league-average option at worst, and so those in deep leagues or those who do not like to stream should feel happy with Green Bay still. Shallower leagues surely have better options now though.
The Patriots and Seahawks are the last two D/STs worth mentioning. The Seahawks are still too good to drop, and they are going to be rewarded with a few more good matchups through the remainder of the schedule. This is a very, very bad matchup though, and so can only be started if you have no bench space. The Patriots, meanwhile, project worse than I expected them to, but they still have plenty of upside in Week 10. They also have a string of matchups going forward that are about as good as it gets, and so can be started with relative confidence now and very confidently going forward.
There is a lot to digest for Week 10, and overall it projects to be a slightly low-scoring week. If you are fighting for a playoff spot, then best of luck to you! If you are likely out of it, it is your duty to play spoiler and try to crush as many dreams as you can.
—
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS