Jarvis Landry has quietly been one of the most reliable performers
How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many owners will use this information to make start/sit decisions, determine what players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this column is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. I will also provide projections on the top 20 wide receivers for Week 5.
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It is hard to believe a quarter of the 2016 NFL regular season is complete. I have separated the top 20 fantasy wide receivers by their total number of targets through Week 4 and have broken them down into tiers. Each tier will provide a visual of a wide receiver’s target share, yards per target, and other statistics. These tiers do not represent wide receiver rankings, but simply groups wide receivers together based on their target volume. I will provide details on how productive these 20 wide receivers have been relative to their opportunity using a Pro Football Focus metric called PPO (Fantasy Points Per Opportunity).
Tier 1
| Rank | Player | Team | Games | Targets | Target % | Red Zone % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Yds/Target | PPG | FP |
| 1 | Mike Evans | TB | 4 | 50 | 29.2 | 22.2 | 26 | 52 | 360 | 3 | 7 | 13.5 | 54 |
| 2 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 4 | 45 | 31 | 14.3 | 28 | 62 | 369 | 4 | 8 | 15.2 | 60.9 |
| 3 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 4 | 45 | 34.1 | 25 | 31 | 69 | 375 | 1 | 8 | 10.8 | 43.1 |
Source: FantasyData and RotoWire
Evans is averaging 12 targets per game and no competition for targets. He has produced a PPO of only 0.30 (standard formats) due to his 54 percent catch rate, but has an aDOT or depth of target of 16.9 yards. Evans is an elite WR1 that should continue to improve each and every week. He is a player I am trying to acquire in fantasy leagues due to the Buccaneers upcoming schedule that includes Panthers, 49ers, Raiders and Falcons.
Brown is averaging 10.75 targets per game, continues to own sizeable target share with the Steelers, and has a PPO of 0.40 (standard formats) which is very high relative to his target volumes and snaps played. He continues to provide fantasy owners with a high floor and week winning upside as a WR1.
Landry is averaging 10.25 targets per game. He continues to be one of the few fantasy assets in the Dolphins disappointing offense. Landry’s 7.7 aDOT limits his upside, but he can still be viewed a low-end WR1 in PPR formats with a PPO of 0.51 and a WR2 in standard leagues with a PPO of 0.30.
Tier 2
| Rank | Player | Team | Games | Targets | Target % | Red Zone % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Yds/Target | PPG | FP |
| 4 | AJ Green | CIN | 4 | 44 | 30.8 | 21.7 | 32 | 73 | 468 | 2 | 11 | 14.7 | 58.8 |
| 5 | TY Hilton | IND | 4 | 44 | 27.7 | 40 | 25 | 57 | 336 | 2 | 8 | 11.4 | 45.6 |
| 6 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 4 | 42 | 33.6 | 55 | 25 | 60 | 293 | 3 | 7 | 11.8 | 47.3 |
| 7 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 4 | 41 | 25.8 | 30 | 21 | 51 | 238 | 3 | 6 | 10.4 | 41.8 |
| 8 | Terrelle Pryor | CLE | 4 | 40 | 29.6 | 18.2 | 19 | 48 | 290 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 43.9 |
Source: FantasyData and RotoWire
Green has the potential to finish as the number one fantasy wide receiver in 2016. He is averaging 10.5 targets per game with an aDOT of 10.2 yards. Green owns a high target share, has played 92 percent of the Bengals offensive snaps, and remains a WR1. He has a PPO of 0.37 through four games in standard formats.
Hilton is also averaging 10.5 targets per game with an aDOT of 12.2 yards. The multi-week injury to Donte Moncrief allowed the offense to cater even more to him. Hilton remains a low-end WR1 who has played 92 percent of the Colts offensive snaps this season. He has a PPO of 0.25 through four games in standard formats.
Sanders has more targets on the season than Demaryius Thomas, but has a catch rate of 60 percent. He has played 85 percent of the Broncos offensive snaps and has been targeted on 18 percent of them. Sanders continues to be on the WR2 radar with a PPO in standard formats of 0.36, but the Broncos may lean on the run over the next four games. The team faces Falcons, Chargers (twice), and Texans over the next four games. This makes C.J. Anderson a great buy low at the running back position.
Robinson is starting to pick up his play after a slow start to the season. He is averaging 9.5 targets per game and has an aDOT of 14. 1 yards. Robinson has a PPO of 0.25 in standard formats through four games and should come out of the bye week recharged and ready to produce for fantasy owners. The Jaguars’ next four games are against the Bears, Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs. Robinson has played on 94 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pryor is averaging 10 targets a game with an aDOT of 15.3 yards. He is literally the swiss army knife of fantasy football with the way he can be utilized. It is amazing to watch Pryor continue to develop as an NFL receiver. He is worth rostering due to his upside, but can provide weekly WR2 value and currently has a PPO 0f 0.27 through four games.
Tier 3
| Rank | Player | Team | Games | Targets | Target % | Red Zone % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Yds/Target | PPG | FP |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 4 | 39 | 23.5 | 29.2 | 25 | 64 | 280 | 3 | 7 | 11.6 | 46.5 |
| 10 | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 4 | 39 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 249 | 1 | 6 | 7.7 | 30.9 |
| 11 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 4 | 39 | 25.7 | 30 | 22 | 56 | 303 | 0 | 8 | 7.6 | 30.3 |
| 12 | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 4 | 37 | 24.3 | 18.8 | 26 | 70 | 308 | 4 | 8 | 14.2 | 56.8 |
| 13 | Jeremy Maclin | KC | 4 | 37 | 22.6 | 11.5 | 20 | 54 | 244 | 1 | 7 | 7.6 | 30.3 |
Source: FantasyData and RotoWire
Fitzgerald is averaging 9.75 targets per game and continues to be the wide receiver to own in Arizona. He has an aDOT of 9.8 yards and is playing a high percentage (94) of the team’s offensive snaps. Fitzgerald is a weekly WR2 in all formats with a PPO of 0.26 through four games.
Marshall has averaged 9.75 targets per game with an aDOT of 15 yards. He is one of my favorite buy lows at the wide receiver position right now in fantasy football despite his PPO of 0.19 through four games. Marshall and the Jets face the Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens, Browns, and Dolphins over the next five games. The absence of wide receiver Eric Decker will allow Marshall to be leaned on even more.
Beckham has had a disappointing season so far. He has averaged 9.75 targets per game, but has yet to score a touchdown. Beckham will produce sooner rather later and the Giants upcoming schedule will help with that. The team faces the Packers, Ravens, and Rams over the next three games. Beckham is another great buy-low target in fantasy football with an aDOT of 12.1 yards. He has a PPO of 0.19 through four games.
Crabtree could be the epitome of a sell-high player. He is taking advantage of the opportunity with a PPO of 0.37 (standard formats) and continues to out target highly touted second-year player Amari Cooper. Cooper is another great wide receiver to buy low on. How much longer will Crabtree be able to take advantage before opposing defensive coordinators begin to roll coverage his way?
Maclin has averaged 9.25 targets per game and continues to be constrained by the Chiefs offensive scheme. He has an aDOT of 11.9 yards, but has uncharacteristically caught only 57 percent of his targets. Maclin can be viewed as a high-end WR3 after the Chiefs come out of their bye week. He has a PPO of 0.17 through four games.
Tier 4
| Rank | Player | Team | Games | Targets | Target % | Red Zone % | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Yds/Target | PPG | FP |
| 14 | Marvin Jones | DET | 4 | 36 | 23.7 | 20 | 23 | 64 | 482 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 60.2 |
| 15 | Steve Smith | BAL | 4 | 36 | 23.9 | 0 | 24 | 67 | 281 | 1 | 8 | 8.5 | 34.1 |
| 16 | Kevin White | CHI | 4 | 36 | 26.1 | 0 | 19 | 53 | 187 | 0 | 5 | 4.9 | 19.6 |
| 17 | Julio Jones | ATL | 4 | 35 | 25.2 | 11.5 | 22 | 63 | 488 | 3 | 14 | 16.7 | 66.8 |
| 18 | Amari Cooper | OAK | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12.5 | 20 | 57 | 318 | 0 | 9 | 8.4 | 33.8 |
| 19 | Tavon Austin | LA | 4 | 35 | 29.4 | 25 | 16 | 46 | 159 | 1 | 5 | 6.1 | 24.3 |
| 20 | Will Fuller | HOU | 4 | 34 | 23.6 | 25 | 19 | 56 | 323 | 2 | 10 | 11.1 | 44.3 |
Source: FantasyData and RotoWire
Jones continues to emerge as the Lions number one wide receiver with an aDOT of 13.2 yards. He continues to take advantage of his opportunity with a PPO of 0.36 (standard format). Jones is a weekly WR2 with WR1 upside.
Smith is intent on going out with a bang and not a whimper. He has repositioned himself as the Ravens number one wide receiver. Smith has caught 69 percent of his targets, but does have an aDOT of only 8.1 yards. He has averaged nine targets per game, has a PPO of 0.26 through four games, and can be used as an every-week WR2.
White has been given a high number of targets, but has not been efficient. He has only caught 54 percent of his 36 targets and has an aDOT of 13.4 yards. White was recently placed on IR due to an ankle injury and a broken fibula. He finished the 2016 season with a PPO of 0.16.
Jones is another wide receiver that can literally win fantasy matchups for you. He has caught 67 percent of his targets through four games this season. The Falcons offense in its second season under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan have spread the receiving targets around. Jones (33), Mohammad Sanu (20), Devonta Freeman (12), Tevin Coleman (15), and Jacob Tamme (21) all have double-digit targets through four games. Jones may not match his high target volume from 2015, but will receive enough targets to finish as a top-six fantasy wide receiver. He currently has a PPO of 0.51
Cooper has averaged 8.75 targets per game and has yet to score a touchdown this season. He and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr have some close to connecting on multiple big plays throughout the season. Cooper has caught 61 percent of his targets and has an aDOT of 11.3. He remains an excellent buy low candidate and has a favorable schedule moving forward despite a PPO of 0.20 through four games.
Tavon Austin has only caught 48 percent of his targets and has an aDOT of nine yards on the season. The Rams offense is unimaginative under head coach Jeff Fisher. It is difficult to trust Austin as anything more than a low-end WR3 with a PPO of 0.19 through four games.
Could Fuller be the Texans wide receiver to own this season? Quarterbacks tend to find a wide receiver they mesh with. It appears that we are seeing a connection develop between Texans franchise quarterback Brock Osweiler and Fuller. He is averaging 8.25 targets per game with an aDOT of 17.5 yards. Fuller can be viewed as a WR3 with WR2 upside any given week and has a PPO of 0.30 through four games. He is benefiting from the defensive attention that DeAndre Hopkins warrants.
Wide Receivers Points Allowed
| Rank | Team | Team | Gms | WR Pts |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB | 4 | 32.3 |
| 2 | Oakland Raiders | OAK | 4 | 31.3 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | GB | 3 | 30.4 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | MIA | 4 | 28.1 |
| 5 | Washington Redskins | WAS | 4 | 27 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | DET | 4 | 26.9 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 4 | 26.2 |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX | 4 | 26.1 |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | KC | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | NO | 4 | 25.9 |
Source: FantasyData
All of these defenses are great targets when evaluating which players to start from your core of wide receivers.
Week 5 Projections
There are numerous statistics and metrics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. It is easy to get overwhelmed and drown in all of it. It is critical to have an operating system to process and manage it all. My methodology revolves around what I like to refer to playing the piano with both hands. You can make music only playing with one hand, but when you use both that is when things really come together. The narrative based information carries weight, but not as much as snap counts, targets, routes run, or red zone usage. When you pair all of those things together in your process it really gives you clarity. That is an approach to take with projections. It allows you to take a firm stance on the range of outcomes for different players. Here is a visual of my Week 5 projections for the top-20 wide receivers ranked by number of targets:
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Targets | Pct | Yds | TD |
| 1 | Antonio Brown | PIT | NYJ | 13.3 | 61.5 | 97.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | TEN | 12.4 | 58.3 | 79.7 | 0.4 |
| 3 | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | PIT | 10.7 | 60 | 78.5 | 0.4 |
| 4 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | GB | 10.2 | 60 | 96.5 | 0.8 |
| 5 | AJ Green | CIN | DAL | 9.9 | 70 | 94.8 | 0.5 |
| 6 | Julian Edelman | NE | CLE | 9.6 | 60 | 64.7 | 0.4 |
| 7 | Jordy Nelson | GB | NYG | 9.4 | 55.6 | 75.9 | 0.6 |
| 8 | Jordan Matthews | PHI | DET | 9.1 | 55.6 | 67.1 | 0.7 |
| 9 | Julio Jones | ATL | DEN | 8.8 | 66.7 | 64.3 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | ATL | 8.7 | 66.7 | 87.1 | 0.6 |
| 11 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | MIN | 8.6 | 55.6 | 54.1 | 0.4 |
| 12 | Marvin Jones | DET | PHI | 8.4 | 55.6 | 71.9 | 0.4 |
| 13 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | TB | 8.3 | 62.5 | 79.8 | 0.6 |
| 14 | Randall Cobb | GB | NYG | 8.2 | 62.5 | 58.5 | 0.4 |
| 15 | Travis Benjamin | SD | OAK | 8.1 | 62.5 | 61.9 | 0.5 |
| 16 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | SF | 8.1 | 75 | 73.2 | 0.6 |
| 17 | Robert Woods | BUF | LA | 8.1 | 62.5 | 53.1 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Mike Evans | TB | CAR | 7.9 | 62.5 | 82.6 | 0.5 |
| 19 | Steve Smith | BAL | WAS | 7.8 | 62.5 | 63.4 | 0.4 |
| 20 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | IND | 7.1 | 71.4 | 74.9 | 0.4 |
Conclusion
The top-10 fantasy wide receivers all have 29 targets or more and have all scored two or more touchdowns through four games. Wide receiver production matters in fantasy football. What stood out to you the most regarding the wide receiver production? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me and follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody. I am very active, engaged with my followers, and happy to provide feedback to put you in a position to win your fantasy football league. Fantasy football never sleeps and neither do I. Until next time!
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