The Jets D/ST get the Browns Week 8 and are widely available
Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for five straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.
It’s incredibly important to have a healthy grasp on your results for any numbers-based endeavor. For those of you who gather information from a multitude of sources before any given Sunday, make sure the folks you take advice from can provide their receipts if you need to audit their results. Or even better, make sure the people you take advice from are volunteering their results on a regular basis.
That said, results can be extremely deceptive. Take the Seahawks, for example. Defense Wins Championships has projected the following scores for Seattle: 10.6, 9.3, 10, 8, BYE, 9.9, and 9. The Seahawks D/ST scores in those weeks were 9, 7, 6, 14, BYE, 9, and 11. On average, the projections were off by 2.5 points per week. At the same time, the projected score through seven weeks – 56.8 – and the actual score through seven weeks – 56 – are remarkably close.
What is the best way to verify results? In my opinion, on a weekly basis, we are most interested in the rank correlation. This is the measure that I post each week, with the corresponding correlation among FantasyPros ECR for comparison. Rank correlation compares the original rankings that get published here every week with the final rankings on Monday night and computes a number between -1 and 1. Typically, the results hover between 0.0 and 0.4, which illustrates just how variable D/ST scoring can be.
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Rank correlation is not the only way, though! Through seven weeks of play, here are the tiers and their results:
Tier 1 (26 teams): Average projected score of 10.68, average actual score of 8.76
Tier 2 (33 teams): Average projected score of 9.35, average actual score of 9.33
Tier 3 (29 teams): Average projected score of 8.44, average actual score of 8.83
Tier 4 (36 teams): Average projected score of 7.65, average actual score of 8.03
There’s a lot to unpack here!
First, the easiest note to make is how the Tier 1 teams have been vastly underperforming expectation. Is this a flaw in the methodology? Is this due to the sample itself? If neither, what is to blame? Unfortunately, we cannot say for sure. However, an interesting note is that the nature of D/ST TDs is to blame for most of the variance in D/ST scoring. In this case, the tier 1 teams through 26 trials have just one D/ST TD. For comparison, the Tier 2 teams have six, Tier 3 teams have three, and Tier 4 teams have five. I suspect that explains a majority of the discrepancy.
Second, it is remarkable just how close the results have been to reality among the other tiers. Whether that continues or not remains to be seen! But it is very nice to see as we near the halfway point.
For Week 7, the rank correlation for Defense Wins Championships was 0.15, while for FantasyPros ECR it was 0.24. This marks the first time since Week 1 where ECR significantly outperformed our model here. The biggest culprits were the Giants (ranked 23rd but finished 2nd), the Buccaneers (ranked 22nd but finished 4th) and Chicago (ranked 30th but finished 11th).
And with that glance toward the past, it’s back to the present. We move ever onward and into Week 8.
Week 8 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.
- Minnesota Vikings, 11.5 – Tier 1
- New York Jets, 9.4 – Tier 2
- Denver Broncos, 9.1 – Tier 2
- Kansas City Chiefs, 9.1 – Tier 2
- Houston Texans, 8.5 – Tier 3
- Arizona Cardinals, 8.5 – Tier 3
- Tennessee Titans, 8.4 – Tier 3
- Dallas Cowboys, 8.4 – Tier 3
- Seattle Seahawks, 8.1 – Tier 3
- Carolina Panthers, 7.9 – Tier 3
- Washington Redskins, 7.9 – Tier 3
- New England Patriots, 7.8 – Tier 3
- Cincinnati Bengals, 7.6 – Tier 3
- San Diego Chargers, 7.6 – Tier 3
- Philadelphia Eagles, 7.4 – Tier 3
- Oakland Raiders, 7.1 – Tier 4
Also on Tier 4 are Cleveland (7.1) and Chicago (7.0)
On bye this week are NY Giants, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Rams, and Dolphins. The Ravens are the toughest to drop of this group, but they are a safe drop nonetheless in most formats. The rest are easy drops.
Note: This week and next week see six teams each on bye. If you can get through these weeks without much trouble, good for you! Most people will not be so lucky. Benches are going to look ugly. Do the best you can, avoid carrying backups at every QB, TE, and D/ST as needed. Do not be afraid to stream if you are forced to. Do what you need to in order to stay alive and/or keep pace with your league.
Tier 1 – Minnesota
There is not much left to say about Minnesota that has not been said already. The Vikings are having a wonderful season defensively, even during their season’s first loss last week in Philadelphia. Minnesota is up to 19 sacks, nine interceptions, and seven fumble recoveries, and they’ve given up just 84 points on the scoreboard all season. That’s an average of just 14 per game, which in MFL scoring is an automatic 4 D/ST points on top of everything else.
Simply put, they have been in a class of their own. A few teams are close, namely Denver, Buffalo, Arizona, Seattle, and Philadelphia (and perhaps a couple others), but none of them have been quite this good. In Week 8, the Vikings get the Bears which, while on the road, should be a low-scoring slugfest for both teams. The Vikings are favored, Jay Cutler is prone to turnovers, and the profile for this game is about as high as it will get all year for any D/ST.
Tier 2 – NY Jets, Denver, Kansas City
The Broncos are on the second tier here, but realistically, no team should consider sitting them. If you have both the Broncos and the Vikings, congratulations. You have a headache every week for what really amounts to a win/win situation, and you have one fewer bench spot. Trade one or find a better league next year where you can trade one. Otherwise, you are starting the Broncos without worry, and without regard to their opponent. This week’s opponent is a home game against the Chargers. Yes, please!
The other two names on this tier are much more interesting. The Jets are owned in fewer than 25% of leagues and the Chiefs in just 55%, so one of the two will be available in a majority of leagues. The Jets get this week’s crack at the Cleveland Browns, who despite putting up points on the scoreboard, have given up 10+ points in all but one week this year, and that last week was a score of 7. Kevin Hogan was their leading passer on Sunday. Fire up the Jets as the No. 1 streaming option of the week.
The Chiefs are perhaps the more interesting option, even if they are less likely to be available. Justin Houston’s return is imminent, with a return scheduled tentatively for Week 9, and they have been playing very well in his absence. They have been one of six D/STs to average double digits through seven weeks and have the year’s highest score of 35 points. Their opponent in Week 8, Indianapolis, is on pace to allow over 100 sacks.*
It is not all so rosy for the Chiefs, though. They have just eight sacks themselves through six games. Their overall numbers have been boosted tremendously by their destruction of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 3. However, there is still more than enough to like here, and the Chiefs are a strong candidate to ascend from the ranks of streaming options into a plug-and-play defense every week. They are not there yet, but they could with games remaining against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Denver twice, and Tennessee.
*Don’t lie, you at least thought this was plausible.
Tier 3 – Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, Dallas, Seattle, Carolina, Washington, New England, Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia
What on earth is happening here? Barely 1 point separates Houston at #5 overall from Philadelphia at #15. Overall it is projected to be a fairly low-scoring week, and this massive tier is partially to blame. There are a few clear standouts among them.
Seattle, Arizona, and Philadelphia should be kept and started without looking toward streaming options. All three are in the top 8 of D/ST scoring (including Philadelphia at #2 overall!), and two of the three are past the bye week. Arizona and Seattle got a chance to show off their defenses in prime time on Sunday night, so there should be no doubt that they are both strong D/ST holds.
The rest of the tier starts to get a little murky after that. The Patriots are close to a plug-and-play team, however, they got destroyed by the Bills the last time, and this time they meet in Buffalo. They also have a bye next week. I would not recommend a drop, but desperate times and bye weeks call for desperate measures. If you are going to be forced to drop the Patriots next week anyway, you can probably jump the gun and do it now for the Jets or Chiefs. If it were for something else on this tier, though, I would probably just sit tight.
The Texans might headline this tier, but they are almost impossible to recommend right now. Has there been a worse move this offseason than Brock Osweiler? The Broncos last year benched him for Peyton Manning, who was himself playing as a bottom tier quarterback. Then, Denver let Brock go to start a seventh-round QB whose NFL resume was literally a single kneel-down. Is it any surprise that Osweiler has been a disaster? But all that said, the story of this game really might be Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense. While they will have to play on the road this week, the Lions have been a top-half offense in the league and one of the harshest on opposing fantasy D/STs. The Texans make a reasonable streaming play in Week 8, albeit with a somewhat low floor. Being owned in almost 80% of leagues means you probably do not have to worry about them one way or another.
The only other team on this tier that has a chance to transcend streaming will be the Bengals, but with a game against Washington and then a bye, it is unlikely to come to fruition. Aside from their game against the Browns, the Redskins have not truly allowed a dud D/ST score, and they have given up 10+ points in two straight weeks. Watch out though; one of those games had 2 D/ST TDs. Washington is a mediocre matchup for a mediocre D/ST, and though the Bengals are home and favored here, I think we can stay away in most cases.
That leaves a handful of streaming options this week; Tennessee, Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and San Diego. Surprisingly (or not, if you have been paying attention) the Cowboys and Redskins are both Top 12 D/STs through seven weeks. The Titans are not far behind at No. 14, while the Panthers and Chargers clock in at number 16 and 21, respectively.
Tennessee went into Week 6 with three straight home games against the Browns, Colts, and Jaguars, and had just come off two solid games against Houston and Miami. They have failed to live up to expectations in both Week 6 and Week 7 and are now much tougher to back in Week 8. However, the Titans are now up to 20 sacks on the season to go along with six interceptions, and they have been unlucky on fumbles to still be searching for their first of the year. The Titans are my favorite streaming option on this tier and are still available in more than 60% of leagues.
The Cowboys are a close second with a home game against the Eagles. The matchup is not great, but the venue certainly is, and the Cowboys have been very good at limiting opposing teams offensively. They need to find themselves a more effective pass rush, but allowing just 18 points per game on the scoreboard is great, as is collecting 1.5 turnovers per game. The big worry here is the Eagles’ defense coming to play and smothering the Cowboys offense, which would put a huge strain on their D/ST. However on balance, the entire range of scoring has enough profits to balance out the losses, and the Cowboys make a great streaming option this week.
The Carolina Panthers are facing the Cardinals this week. As inept as Carson Palmer looked on Sunday, he still flashed some great plays, and the Seahawks defense is significantly better than the Panthers. I would not start the Panthers in any format, nor would I start the Redskins on the road against Cincinnati in advance of their bye. Both are easy to get away from this week.
The last team to cover this week is the Chargers. They are away and playing against Denver, so the Chargers open as nearly 1-TD underdogs at altitude. That said, the game profiles to be low-scoring, and the Chargers have been impressive overall. If the Chargers offense can avoid mistakes (and actually win with field position more often than not), they can come away with a solid D/ST score. Like Houston, this is going to be a play with a low floor, but perhaps just as much (if not more) upside. With the Chargers available in almost all formats and with a home game against Tennessee next week, they make an excellent streaming option.
For streamers, that leaves a target order of; New York Jets, Kansas City, Tennessee, Dallas, San Diego, and then Washington. All other options should be either universally owned or bad enough to ignore.
Week 8 marks the halfway point of the season. It is hard to believe that we are here already, but we are. Best of luck to everybody still fighting for a playoff spot!
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