Is Sterling Shepard in line for a big game this weekend?
Welcome to another edition of “Analyzing Vegas Odds”. The first few weeks of the season have been pretty good so far, and our analysis has been mostly on target – with the exception of a few details here or there. As always in any sport, there is going to be variance and outliers, so no article by anyone is likely to hit everything on the head. The more information we get, the better we can plan for what to expect in each game. This will be the only week of the season we will not have the Saints to pick on, so this will be the first and likely only time this year they will not be written up.
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San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders – Total: 50; Spread: -3.5 Oakland
This game has all of the makings of a game that should be very high scoring, as it is featuring two of the worst defenses in all of the NFL. Vegas agrees that it should be high scoring, and they also tell us that it should be closely contested.
All things considered, it has been a pretty bad year for the Chargers, having lost three of arguably their top five players in Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead and Jason Verrett. This has left Melvin Gordon with a huge workload, and thus, massive fantasy outings. His price has finally caught up with him for the most part, and it isn’t as easy to just toss him in your lineups. Also, it is unlikely that his production can keep up, especially when considering much of it has been reliant on touchdowns. Strangely enough, I could see this being the week things come screeching to a halt. Not just for him, but this entire offense. I think there is still an opportunity for a Travis Benjamin, Dontrell Inman, Tyrell Williams or Hunter Henry [pending Antonio Gates status] to put up a big game, but I’m not expecting it from more than one. I am also not seeing it coming from Rivers either. Again, this is mostly just a gut reaction to how I see this being played, and I think this is a week I am hopping off the Chargers.
On the other side of the matchup, I very much like the Raiders. Derek Carr is one of my favorite quarterback plays this week, and I think it is likely that he will go at least somewhat overlooked. I think many will jump to the Michael Crabtree train, but I am all in on Amari Cooper this week, and I expect him to get his first taste of the end zone this week. The running game is up in the air right now, with Latavius Murray dealing with a foot issue. If he is out, DeAndre Washington makes an excellent tournament option, and I don’t mind Jalen Richard as well. Seth Roberts is someone else who I do have a bit of interest in, but just as a last resort tournament plug.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers – Total: 48; Spread: -7 Green Bay
Perhaps the game I could see the most fantasy impact coming from might be this Sunday night game that I think will play heartbreaker to many players who has top 10 lineups at 8PM and not after. There are a lot of options here and I think we can use them in a variety of formats.
2016 has been tough sledding so far for Odell Beckham Jr. and friends. He’s had a few temper tantrums already, and has basically said football isn’t fun anymore. I think things will change Sunday night, and I fully expect Eli Manning to be feeding the ball to him. Due to his early season volatility, I would much rather use both of them in tournaments, but there is certainly upside. I also like the upside that exists for both Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. They are cheaper options that Beckham, but if things go south for Beckham, one or both of these guys will be there to pick up the slack. That is about where I would stop for the Giants. The tight ends have been inconsistent, and I don’t even really think the Giants know what their running back situation is going to look like on Sunday.
The Packers look like a much different team in 2016, and Jordy Nelson seems to be the answer. He makes an excellent play in both formats this week, and should see double-digit targets, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the end zone. Randall Cobb hasn’t really gotten going yet this year, but due to the system he is in, he makes a good tournament play. I think Davante Adams makes a great tournament play, as Rodgers likes to look for him deep, and if he manages to catch the passes coming to him, is always a threat for high yardage and touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers should also be considered in this matchup, as I think the Giants will do enough to keep this game close. I would love to say that one of the tight ends could be in play here, after we saw them struggle with Kyle Rudolph last week, but I don’t trust either of them enough. Eddie Lacy also makes the don’t trust list, so I’ll pass on him as well, though Vegas odds would suggest that game flow should cause him to run the clock down.
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns – Total: 46.5; Spread: – 10.5 New England
This has the makings of a game that should be downright ugly. Vegas has the spread with New England as a 10.5 point road favorite. The Bills just shut this team out last week, and Tom Brady is coming off suspension. I will be at this game, with seats in the second row on the 35-yard line behind the Browns bench. For what it’s worth, I am not a Brown’s fan. I live in Northeast Ohio, and I want to see Tom Brady play before he retires. Oh, also, I don’t think this game will be that big of a spread.
What do we know about the Patriots? Well, for one , Tom Brady is likely to have a big game here. LeGarrette Blount is nursing an injury right now, and quite frankly, he is the only reliable true running back they have. So I expect the ball to be thrown. Julian Edelman, who also popped up on late week injury reports, is that guy I want here, as I expect him to see double-digit targets and the end zone for the first time this week. I’ve seen a lot of Rob Gronkowski chatter, and to be quite honest with you, in DFS, I cannot pay this price until I’ve actually seen more than less than a handful of targets. Everyone else could score a touchdown, but I just don’t think any of the other role players will put together games that are big enough to warrant use in tournaments.
That brings us to the Browns, and really, I am looking at three guys here: Isaiah Crowell, Terrelle Pryor and Duke Johnson Jr. This is the Browns version of the big three. Crowell has been dominant this year, and there is little doubt in my mind that he can get it done in this matchup. He is absolutely dependent on touchdowns, though, as his yardage will not be enough to warrant playing him, but either way the three of them are tournament only options. Pryor and Johnson should see a lot of targets in the passing game, and will likely to not have to suffer through a phantom fumble in this one. If there is one thing about the Browns, it is that they tend to stay in games when they have no business to, and that is exactly what I could see happening here.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams – Total: 39.5; Spread: -2.5 Los Angeles
The final game I want to look at is a game that I think Vegas has wrong in a few ways. I think it will be both under the total and I think the spread will be higher. But whom will it favor?
Buffalo is riding high right now, after shutting down division rival New England last week, but will now travel across the country and play a Rams team that is running on a hope and living on a prayer. Somehow though, I think Buffalo is going to be running into a brick wall. This Rams defense is better than it has been given credit for, and I am in no way shape or form sold on this Bills team. I think it is likely that the Rams will shut them out as they have done to many others thus far, and Buffalo will struggle mightily.
With that being said, I love the Rams defense. It also doesn’t hurt that Tavon Austin is around to return punts and kicks, increasing the likelihood that they end up with special teams touchdowns. The only other guys I want to even look at here are Austin, much for the reason I have listed above, and Todd Gurley. I know he has made his way onto many naughty lists, but ultimately, I do find this to be a talented player who will get out of his funk. This is a great chance to buy low on Gurley, and while he cannot be anywhere near your cash game lineups, he should most certainly make his way into some of your tournament lineups.
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Nicholas Volinchak is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicholas, follow him @researchandwin. You can find more of Nicholas’ football work at Research Fantasy.
