Are Jordy Nelson and the Packers in for a tougher matchup than expected?

The fades are in! How did I do in Week 2?

Drew Brees (NO) – 14.52
Everyone in this game underperformed except for Sterling Shepard. Neither of my alternates did much better. McCown threw two touchdowns and two interceptions only to get injured. Mariota threw a game-winning touchdown but only had 17.62 fantasy points.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – 13.3
Elliott got into the end zone again. He also fumbled, again! Guess what? Alfred Morris played touchdown vulture as mentioned in my Week 2 article. One of my alternates, TJ Yeldon, was a huge bust. C.J. Anderson had a disappointing 16.8 fantasy points for all his hype against the Colts.

Jordan Matthews (PHI) – 10.1
Matthews caught 6 passes for 71 yards and no touchdowns. That’s the Jordan Matthews stat line we’ve all grown accustomed to.

Travis Kelce (KC) – 5.9
My alternate, Dwayne Allen, only scored 3.5 points.

Denver Broncos – 22
The Broncos scored two touchdowns against Andrew Luck and the Colts. My alternate defense, Green Bay Packers, was torched by Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs.

Enter the NFL Sunday Million for your chance at a $200k top prize

I didn’t do as well as I did Week 1. That’s ok. Fading is a skill you build up over time. You can still fade big names and profit.

All week all we heard was how the Saints/Giants game was going to be an epic shootout. Something felt off. Did Eli Manning really have to force the ball to Odell Beckham Jr. for three touchdowns again? With Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard it wasn’t very likely. Also, the last game was played in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. This time, they would play at MetLife Stadium. As mentioned in the last article, Brees doesn’t play well on the road.

I decided on Saturday that I would fade all players in this game. Instead, I elected to go light on the main slate and early slate and attack the afternoon only with a bigger portion of my bankroll. I also faded the Steelers/Bengals game which was the second most talked about game on social media. It was a high risk/high reward play that paid off! I ended up having one of my single biggest scores yet (+$7,000)!

The reason I bring this up is that fading takes careful planning and execution. It took me all week to decide if I was going to fade these games. I sat back and listened to the noise on social media. I came up with a plan and stuck to it. I also did this within my own bankroll. If you utilize bankroll management, losing one week won’t hurt. A loss one week won’t make or break your season with proper game selection. In my mind, the reward of winning big far outweighed the risk of losing 5-10% of my bankroll. A lot of people have trouble fading as they don’t want to look stupid or be wrong. This is something you can get past with careful practice.

In DFS, as the edges get smaller, game selection and bankroll management become more paramount. Instead of stressing myself out, I elected to take a different route and it paid off. While it doesn’t always turn out like this there is a lesson to be learned.

What’s that lesson? There is always a solution in DFS! Don’t get stuck using one approach because someone tells you to. Build your own reads and use stats, and this article, to back them up.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (GB): $8,900

Did you know that Blaine Gabbert is averaging more fantasy points per game over his last eight than Rodgers? Rodgers is averaging 16.79 fantasy points to Gabbert’s 17.26!

I’m not saying that Gabbert is a better QB than Rodgers. I am saying that something is off. While the over/under is an inviting 48 points, divisional foes always play each other tough. Quarterbacks also underperform the more they are favored. In this case, the -7.5 spread would indicate that Rodgers may not need to throw to win. Even if he does throw he may not post the monster stat lines we’ve grown accustomed to. This game looks like a shootout on paper but it may not play out that way.

Alternate Play

Marcus Mariota (TEN): $7,700

Am I crazy to go back to Mariota after he disappointed me fantasy wise? I played him in the FantasyPros.com DFAC as my QB so I feel your pain.

In this case, the Raiders just made Matt Ryan look like the old Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. Give Mariota one more chance and you’ll be rewarded.

Running Back

C.J. Anderson (DEN): $8,000

Anderson has the starting running back position all but locked up, right? Booker, after a disappointing Week 1 fumble, came back with nine total touches. Bibbs and Janovich also chipped in for two touches as well.

While that doesn’t mean you should panic it does mean that there are touchdown vultures ever present. Usually, there is one. In this case, there are three! You can have David Johnson in a much better situation in Week 3 for only $400 more.

Alternate Play

David Johnson (ARI): $8,400

Johnson disappointed by not getting a touchdown in a 40-point stomping of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chris Johnson even scored when the game was well out of hand. Don’t jump ship just yet. There is a glimmer of hope just around the corner!

This week the Cardinals get to play the Bills. Anywhere that Rob Ryan coaches you should target with reckless abandon. He has been the defensive coordinator of two of the worst defenses of all time (Saints and Cowboys). In this case, he is assistant head coach and assistant defensive coordinator.

In other words, he couldn’t get a job anymore so his brother hired him on. The Bills defense is already in shambles. Johnson could get two touchdowns quick and end up sitting before the 4th quarter even starts.

Wide Receiver

Jordy Nelson (GB): $8,300

After two straight games with a touchdown, you have to wonder “is Jordy Nelson heating up?” I’m not spending $8,300 to find out. The Packers opened at -7.5 favorites. Something feels off about this line. Rodgers may not have to go to Jordy very often to win. Also, this early in the season, why risk him when the game is out of hand coming off of injury?

Alternate Play

Dez Bryant (DAL): $7,900

How many games in a row can you keep Bryant out of the end zone? With a 40% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone, you’d think he’s due for a positive regression in the upcoming weeks. This is the perfect time to utilize Bryant. Most people will continue to ignore him until he scores. Kelvin Benjamin, who just scored two touchdowns, is $100 less than him. Most people can’t justify playing Dez when Benjamin is a $100 cheaper.

Tight End

Antonio Gates (SD): $6,000

Tight end is always inconsistent. It’s hard to make a case to fade Greg Olsen as he is Cam Newtons favorite target. In this case, I want to strongly suggest you fade Antonio Gates. He’s getting up there in age. This game looks very inviting to use Gates in. I just don’t think the Chargers will have to. Instead, I’m hoping Ken Whisenhunt see’s value in grinding the clock down at some point with Melvin Gordon. Rivers also has Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams, two dynamic playmakers on the outside, to throw to and pick up huge chunks of yardage.

Alternate Play

Kyle Rudolph (MIN): $5,100

You can also start Delanie Walker against the Raiders. Rudolph is cheaper and may go slightly overlooked. He appears to be a big part of that offense, especially after Adrian Peterson went down. The past two weeks he has 16 targets and is a lock for at least a few red zone targets per game.

Defense

Seattle Seahawks: $5,400
The San Francisco 49ers just embarrassed the Rams in Week 1. The Rams just embarrassed the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. Russell Wilson is struggling and the 49ers are confident after their impressive performance against the Panthers.

Alternate Play

Miami Dolphins: $4,600
The Browns just lost another QB. Cody Kessler is expected to start against the Dolphins. This one seems way too obvious. If you live the fade life, you still have to have a core to lean on. In this case, the Dolphins get to play a Browns third-string QB. Don’t overthink this spot!

Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.