A lack of solid receiving options may prevent Philip Rivers from racking up very gaudy numbers against the Saints
Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 4.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.
In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 4 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.
Before getting into my Week 4 players, let’s take a look at how I did in Week 3. All of the results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders. In my results, I’m not considering players injured during last week’s games as a victory or defeat since there is no metric that can be used to predict that in advance.
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Overvalued
- Ryan Tannehill (QB – MIA) ECR: 12th – Finished: 10th – Winner: ECR
- Jerick McKinnon (RB – MIN) ECR: 27th – Finished: 32nd – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Brandin Cooks (WR – NO) ECR: 6th – Finished: 88th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Dennis Pitta (TE – BAL) ECR: 7th – Finished: 19th – Winner: FantasyTruth
Undervalued
- Joe Flacco (QB – BAL) ECR: 16th – Finished: 21st – Winner: ECR
- Cameron Artis-Payne (RB – CAR) ECR: 40th – Finished: 38th – Winner: ECR
- T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND) ECR: 16th – Finished: 4th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Clive Walford (TE – OAK) ECR: 18th – Finished: 25th – Winner: ECR
It was a 4-4 split between the Expert Consensus Ranking and I this week, which is an improvement over Week 2. With this Sunday rapidly approaching I’ll be looking to come out ahead of the experts in Week 4.
Overvalued
Philip Rivers (QB – SD) ECR: 3rd
Why the experts like him
Whatever quarterback is facing off against the Saints can be expected to produce, it’s just a given at this point. Rivers is the lucky man up this week, and as a result, he has shot up to No. 3 in the expert consensus rankings. Despite another season that has injuries piling up, the Chargers have enough offensive weapons to do some damage in the passing game this week.
Why I think he’s overvalued
I think Rivers will have a fine game this week, but he doesn’t have the receiving threats to post a top five fantasy performance. The biggest issue is his lack of a reliable red zone threat in the passing game.
Rivers’ touchdown numbers are skewed by a huge performance against the Jaguars, but in his other two games combined he has just one passing touchdown. This puts Rivers in the low-end QB1 range for me despite the wonderful matchup.
Tevin Coleman (RB – ATL) ECR: 24th
Why the experts like him
Both Coleman and Devonta Freeman exploded last week, finishing as the top two running backs in both PPR and standard scoring formats. Coleman’s production largely came from the three touchdowns he punched in. The way the Falcons’ offense has been producing makes both Freeman and Coleman viable fantasy assets from week to week.
Why I think he’s overvalued
The Falcons have had one of the easiest offensive schedules of any team in the NFL which has boosted the production of not only their running back but Matt Ryan as well. This week’s matchup against Carolina will present what is easily their most difficult test of the season to date.
Despite his fantasy production, Coleman has not been that great of a runner as he’s averaged only 3.4 yards per carry as compared to 6.3 for Freeman. Coleman is nothing more than a low floor RB3/flex play in week four.
Marvin Jones (WR – DET) ECR: 7th
Why the experts like him
How can you not like the top scoring receiver in fantasy football? Nobody expected Jones to be a true replacement for Calvin Johnson entering this season, but that’s what we’ve gotten so far. The Chicago Bears are generous to opposing passers which could allow Matthew Stafford to throw the ball freely in this matchup.
Why I think he’s overvalued
I think it’s apparent that Jones’ current production is unsustainable and that should become evident this week. While the Bears have struggled in defending the pass, they have managed to limit opposing No. 1 wide receivers to under 60 yards in each of their first three weeks. Jones should draw that attention which means they may be forced to spread the ball around a bit more in Week 4.
Jimmy Graham (TE – SEA) ECR: 11th
Why the experts like him
Graham turned in a vintage performance last week, going for 100 yards for the first time since October of last year. If he is truly healthy, then Graham presents a unique and dangerous threat at tight end that will be difficult for opposing teams to deal with. His opponent, the New York Jets, are known for stuffing the run which means Graham could get more work in a passing game script.
Why I think he’s overvalued
I need to see more than one good game out of Graham before I’m ready to buy into his health and role in this offense. Even when he was healthy last year, he wasn’t particularly effective. The upside of the Seattle Seahawks’ offense as a whole is also tied directly to the health and mobility of Russell Wilson, which is also questionable heading into Week 4.
Undervalued
Brian Hoyer (QB – CHI) ECR: 21st
Why the experts dislike him
Hoyer has never been an exciting fantasy option at quarterback. He is on track to be the starter in what has so far been a mediocre offense that has injury question marks, most notably wide receiver Alshon Jeffery who is nursing knee and hamstring injuries.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Hoyer managed to find success with the Houston Texans last year, and he should be able to put up similar production for as long as he’s under center for the Bears. This week’s opponent, the Detroit Lions, has had one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL year to date.
In addition to their porous defense, the Lions are going to put up points which will force Hoyer to throw the ball early and often. Hoyer could flirt with QB1 production this week.
DeAndre Washington (RB – OAK) ECR: 47th
Why the experts dislike him
Washington is behind Latavius Murray on the Oakland Raiders depth chart and is stuck in a timeshare that would likely need an injury or two to produce a featured back. While he has been productive in limited work so far, he would need a bump up in touches to have a shot at consistent fantasy production.
Why I think he’s undervalued
On a touch for touch basis, Washington has been the most productive running back in Oakland. I believe the coaching staff will recognize that and give him a larger slice of the pie this week. That will come at the expense of Murray, who has seen his touches slowly declining every week. I’m predicting that Washington will see double-digit touches this week which would put him on the RB3 radar.
Brandon Marshall (WR – NYJ) ECR: 27th
Why the experts dislike him
Marshall just hasn’t been himself so far this year, which has been made painfully evident by his lack of touchdowns through three weeks. The Jets’ passing offense hasn’t been efficient so far this year and this week’s matchup against Seattle does little to inspire confidence.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Marshall didn’t appear to be playing at 100% the last two weeks due to an injury he sustained in Week 2. He appears to be fully healed and may have to shoulder even more of a load if Eric Decker is forced to miss this week’s matchup.
Despite the production issues, Marshall has still been targeted 27 times in only three games this year. Even in a tough matchup, I think he is a high-end WR2 at worst.
Jacob Tamme (TE – ATL) ECR: 15th
Why the experts dislike him
After a strong start to the season, Tamme was quiet in week three with only three reception for 28 yards. This week’s matchup isn’t any easier as the Panthers’ defense is the toughest that Atlanta has faced this season.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Tamme struggled to produce in Week 3 simply because Freeman and Coleman were so effective in the running game. Ryan will be forced to throw more in this week’s matchup which should bring Tamme back to his eight target baseline that he enjoyed in the first two weeks.
That many targets created a nice floor for a tight end and also gives a reasonable shot at a touchdown which is essential to be competitive at this position. Tamme should produce TE1 numbers in Week 4.
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