Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in week one.

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In this column, I’m going to be revealing the players that I believe are overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This will be based on the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. Each week I’ll give you a player at each position that I believe is overvalued and one that is undervalued based on their current ECR.

Week One is typically the most difficult to predict player rankings. This is due in part to offensive changes that a team has undergone in the offseason as well as defensive changes that can dramatically impact the strength of schedule. We saw bits and pieces of those changes in the preseason but week one is where everything comes together. Based on my research and predictions, here are the players that I believe are overvalued or undervalued this week.

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Overvalued

Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) ECR: 6

Why the experts like him
When healthy, Roethlisberger has obvious big game potential. His opponent, the Washington Redskins, were firmly entrenched in the bottom half of the league in pass defense last year which makes this look like a nice matchup on paper. Roethlisberger is always a candidate for 400 yards and that’s what people are hoping for here.

Why I think he’s overvalued
I expect Roethlisberger to be a solid fantasy starter for most of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle in week one. The offseason for the Steelers was one of extreme disappointment with Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Ladarius Green all being eliminated for multiple games before they even played a snap. This week their replacement number two receiver, Markus Wheaton, is missing practice with a shoulder ailment.

Without multiple consistent receiving threats, the Redskins will be able to key in on the Steelers remaining weapons which could limit their ability to move the ball. While the Redskins did not have a stellar passing defense last year, it will almost certainly show improvement in 2016, partially due to the addition of Josh Norman. All of these limiting factors put Roethlisberger on the QB1/QB2 borderline for me which is significantly lower than his ECR.

Carlos Hyde (RB – SF) ECR: 16

Why the experts like him
Much has been made about Hyde’s potential upside this year in Chip Kelly’s high volume offense. Hyde does possess some great physical traits that could make that upside a reality if everything goes right for him this year. When he was healthy last year we got to see a taste of what Hyde is capable of in the NFL.

Why I think he’s overvalued
I believe the biggest roadblock to Hyde’s success this year will be the impotence of the 49ers offense. They simply don’t have the personnel that will put Hyde in the position to score with any consistency. This squad is also learning a new offense that was exposed at times last year in Philadelphia.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Los Angeles Rams appear to have a stout defensive line heading into the season. This is a team that is going to want to dictate the game with their defense and run the ball effectively. I believe they will effectively limit Hyde’s production and put him in the RB3/Flex range for this week.

Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA) ECR: 19

Why the experts like him
Everyone should be aware of Baldwin’s amazing stretch of games in the second half of last season, but I’ll recap it for you anyway: 8 games, 724 yards and 12 touchdowns. Nobody expects him to replicate that level of production but the potential has him slotted in as a WR2 for many owners.

Why I think he’s overvalued
Prior to last year, Baldwin has never managed more than five touchdowns over the course of an entire season. This and other factors lead me to believe that last year was an extreme outlier that will not come close to being replicated.

For this week’s matchup in particular, I expect the Seahawks to use a very run-heavy approach (perhaps more so than normal). They will be able to easily exploit Miami’s defensive line and gash them for large gains on the ground. When they do throw the ball (which will likely happen 30 times or less) it would almost be impossible to consistently do so with the same efficiency that made Baldwin a star last year.

Martellus Bennett (TE – NE) ECR: 13

Why the experts like him
Bennett has some serious upside in a New England offense that will likely trot out two tight ends on a majority of plays this year. Even with Rob Gronkowski being the obvious top target there should be targets to spare for this versatile tight end. With the top defensive players dedicated to stopping the other receiving weapons, it could leave openings for Bennett to shine.

Why I think he’s overvalued
Until Tom Brady is back on the field I can’t buy into Martellus Bennett as a borderline TE1. It has nothing to do with his talent, more to do with the fact that we haven’t seen this offense as a complete unit yet this year.

To make things more difficult in week one, the Patriots are facing off against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. This is going to limit the upside of the offense as a whole as I believe they will struggle to put together drives against this elite unit. For this week I have Bennett as a low-end TE2.

Undervalued

Philip Rivers (QB – SD) ECR: 15

Why the experts are low on him
After an excellent start to the season, Rivers significantly underwhelmed down the stretch last year. His first matchup in 2016 is against a solid Kansas City squad that could be one of the top defenses this year. This combination has many scared off of Rivers this year, particularly for week one.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Rivers’ decline last year began when his team started to fall apart around him. Everyone knows that Keenan Allen was lost due to injury, but injuries all along the offensive line were just as devastating to the Chargers. Entering this season they have made significant improvements to their offensive line to complement their healthier receiving group.

Even against a good passing defense, Rivers will be able to move the ball through the air. His strength has been in the short passing game which should be difficult for the Chiefs to stop. Rivers also has a healthy deep threat in Travis Benjamin which is something that he was sorely lacking for much of last year.  I’d be comfortable starting Rivers this week as a QB1.

Danny Woodhead (RB – SD) ECR: 31

Why the experts are low on him
Danny Woodhead has always struggled to get respect in fantasy circles, particularly in standard scoring. This week’s ranking likely has to do with a difficult matchup and questions about the Chargers offense as a whole. Some are concerned that Melvin Gordon may make a step up which could mean less carries for Woodhead this year.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Danny Woodhead was quietly a top 10 option in fantasy football last year, despite the Chargers struggles on offense. The Chargers are predicted to be playing from behind this week, which will only benefit Woodhead and his role in the passing game. I expect him to get about 15 touches which will be enough to make him an RB2 this week.

Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) ECR: 41

Why the experts are low on him
Shepard is an unproven rookie which makes for a huge range of outcomes for this season. The Dallas Cowboys have an underrated passing defense and will likely attempt to limit time of possession for the Giants by handing the ball off to Ezekiel Elliott frequently.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Shepard is going to be the number two passing option for Eli Manning, who will almost certainly throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this season. He’s an extremely polished wide receiver that is set to make an offensive impact immediately. With Odell Beckam Jr. drawing most of the attention, Shepard should be able to get open and make plays frequently.

In this particular matchup I believe that Shepard will be able to exploit the Dallas secondary. The Cowboys defensive backs fall off sharply after Brandon Carr which should leave ample opportunity for Shepard to get open. I would expect Shepard to perform at a WR3 level at worse, but wouldn’t be surprised if he snuck into the WR2 discussion this week.

Zach Miller (TE – CHI) ECR: 16

Why the experts are low on him
Miller has yet to put together a full season of relevance at the tight end position. People are also wary of Cutler’s ability to consistently get him the ball. Many are unsure of what the role for Miller will be now that Martellus Bennett has been shipped to New England.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Miller was able to keep pace with and even exceed Martellus Bennett‘s stat line last year which suggests that he is a solid replacement. The Bears have made it clear that he is their top option at tight end and I expect them to rely on him heavily. Kevin White is looking like a bit of a project which will mean more targets headed Miller’s way.

The Houston Texans have a stout defense and on paper a significantly improved offense. This indicates to me that the Bears will likely be playing catchup for a significant portion of the game. Jay Cutler isn’t afraid to throw the ball when he needs to (and often when he doesn’t need to) which means Miller’s upside is extremely high this week. I have him as a back-end TE1 that is worthy of starting.

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