Bold Predictions for Week 1

Yes, Clive Walford is a real person and he will dominate week one

Ok, so let’s just say this up front – this is my favorite article to write. A bold predictions piece is the best column for a fantasy analyst, bar none. You get to go absolutely insane with your picks, doing anything you want so long as there’s some remote justification in the numbers, even if it sounds crazy. And you can be wrong all day long and no one can criticize you because, hey, what do you want from me, they’re just bold picks, dude. But if you happen to nail a couple, then you’re a flat out genius. “Remember when that Dan Harris guy said RG3 was going to be a top 5 QB in Week 1 and he actually WAS?” (Note – that will not be one of my bold predictions, so stop trying to hold me to it). It’s the perfect combination of the opportunity to dig deep for some fantasy analysis with absolutely no accountability. If only all of life were that simple.

So, here we go. Some bold predictions for Week 1. Remember the very simple rules. If I get these wrong, then nothing happens. But if I get any of them right, like Billy Madison, I am the SMARTEST MAN ALIVE! Note: All predictions are for standard leagues. Unless they are accurate in PPR leagues. In which case, they’re for PPR leagues (no, seriously, just standard, everyone relax).

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1) Brock Osweiler finishes as a top-5 QB (20th in ECR)

Are you not entertained? Seriously, these are BOLD predictions, people, so let’s have fun. I’m not sure how good Osweiler is going to be this season, but I do know that I like a QB playing for the Texans at home in Week 1 against the cornerback-less Bears. Does anyone know who is supposed to be guarding DeAndre Hopkins? Anyone? The Bears’ top THREE cornerbacks are all looking questionable to play. This is the perfect situation for Osweiler to completely light it up, the fantasy community to go gaga, and for him to then finish the season as the 18th ranked QB. I could see a huge game coming here.

2) A.J. Green finishes outside the top-30 wide receivers (8th in ECR)

Here we have the perfect combination for me of incorporating my fandom while simultaneously trying to reverse-jinx Green. As one of the few Jets fans that did not burn his Darrelle Revis jersey after Revis went to the Patriots, I still have total faith in the guy as a shutdown corner. Ok, that’s vastly overstating it, but he’s still an excellent defender who can take out most wide receivers. And the Jets can afford to give Revis help because who else is Andy Dalton going to throw to right now? So, I’m just not sure Green has a great game here. At the same time, I own Green in several leagues because, well, he’s awesome, so I’m throwing a little reverse-jinx in there. That’s how the game is played, folks.

3) Ameer Abdullah finishes as a top-10 running back (25th in ECR)

Full disclosure. I have an absolutely irrational love for Abdullah. I can’t explain it. But, if he was ever going to have a really big week, here it is. Week 1 against the Colts. Abdullah thrived last season in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense, and Joique Bell isn’t around anymore to anger fantasy owners with his stubborn relevance. With Calvin Johnson out of the picture, Matthew Stafford‘s patented “close my eyes and throw it high in the air in Megatron’s direction” play from within the five-yard line is no longer an option. So, I could see the Lions with more rushing scores this season. In a game where lots of points should be scored, Abdullah should be in line for a big game.

4) Tajae Sharpe finishes as a top-20 wide receiver (48th in ECR)

Why can’t I stop caring about the preseason? Every year, I promise I won’t get sucked in, but it never sticks. Sharpe flew up my draft board this preseason after the Titans’ game against the Panthers, and he never stopped rising. Honestly, there’s little to get behind here other than Sharpe’s immense talent. The Vikings have a very solid defense (although it’s in the middle of the pack against wide receivers for fantasy purposes) and Sharpe will be playing in his first NFL regular season game. But, that’s why they call it a bold prediction and not an “interesting prediction that is slightly unlikely to happen but still very well-supported and reasonable.”

5) Clive Walford finishes as a top-7 tight end (17th in ECR)

Who the heck is Clive Walford? Don’t worry about it. All you need to know is he’s a tight end playing the Saints. You know the Saints defense? That one that gave up 1,290 yards to tight ends last year and allowed the most fantasy points to the position. Right, that one. Seriously, reader, if you played tight end for an NFL team, I would put you in my bold predictions column as a top-10 option. And, although I know you’ve never heard of Walford and you just clicked on his name to make sure he’s a real person, he actually had a nice little second half last year, with 20 catches for 235 yards. So, what the heck? Also, if you’re wondering why it’s top-7, it’s because top-5 sounded too ludicrous even for this column, but a top-10 tight end just didn’t have that “bold” feel to it, you know? Top-7 it is!