David Johnson may be a safer fantasy draft selection than you think
Donald Gibson explains why Cardinals RB David Johnson is a safe pick in 2016 fantasy football drafts.
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David Johnson broke out at the end of 2015, and the world is split on whether or not he can be trusted to carry (ha, get it?) your fantasy team this season. It kind of sounds like C.J. Anderson at the end of 2014 into 2015, doesn’t it? Let’s hope this story ends differently. Actually, let’s hope the entire beginning and middle of the story are different too. Those were rough.
In points-per-reception (PPR) scoring, David Johnson finished as RB7 in 2015 with 215.8 points and an average of 13.5 per week. He had eight rushing touchdowns, four receiving touchdowns and a kickoff return touchdown. For a guy who finished RB7, you’d think he was getting a decent amount of carries right?
Well, uh, no. Not at all actually.
David Johnson didn’t have more than 10 (yes, 10!) offensive touches until Week 13. To break that down, Johnson averaged just under five offensive touches per game before that point, but still averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game. From Week 13 through the end of the season – aka when Bruce Arians got it together – Johnson went up to 21.4 offensive touches per game and a whopping 22.6 fantasy points per game.
Clearly, Johnson doesn’t need volume to reward fantasy owners. I like to use a completely unofficial statistic called fantasy points per touch (FPPT) to illustrate explosiveness and productivity in guys like Johnson – guys who may not play as often as you’d like but who make a big impact when they do.
Johnson had 125 rushing attempts and 36 receptions last season – so 161 touches. As mentioned previously, he had 215.8 fantasy points. Johnson’s FPPT was 215.8 divided by 161, or a ratio of 1.34.
“Alright Donald, you just threw a stat at me that I’ve never heard of, and I have no idea how that compares to everyone else. Thanks so much.”
Okay, relax, avid reader. I won’t leave you hangin’.
Antonio Brown – arguably (not really arguably) the best fantasy player in 2015 – had 139 offensive touches and an incredible 388.2 fantasy points, yielding an FPPT of 2.79. Simply put, that’s insane.
You’d have to imagine that receivers are a little inflated, especially in PPR leagues. Let’s look at the leading running backs.
Devonta Freeman – fantasy’s 2015 RB1 and everyone’s favorite brain-numbing mystery – had 337 touches and 316.4 fantasy points for an FPPT of 0.94. The NFL’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, had 357 touches for 260.7 fantasy points – an FPPT of 0.73. Danny Woodhead, the league’s RB3 in PPR (yes, you read that correctly), had an FPPT of 1.37, largely because he only had 98 carries to go along with 80 receptions. Lamar Miller, the only guy who initially jumped out at me as being similar to David Johnson in terms of production as a function of opportunity, had an FPPT of 0.96.
The main concern with Johnson is that he may still be splitting carries with Chris Johnson and/or Andre Ellington in Arizona. Fantasy owners are concerned that he might get half of the team’s carries.
His FPPT should have you thinking one thing:
Who cares?
Arizona had 452 rushing attempts last season, good for ninth-most in the NFL. If they had the exact same number of rushing attempts and Johnson got half of them, he’d have 226 carries. If he had the same number of receptions as last season (36, and that number should skyrocket), he’d be left with 262 touches. At his 2015 FPPT, that would be 351.2 fantasy points in PPR.
Devonta Freeman had 316.4 PPR points in 2015.
I’m not saying Johnson is going to repeat that efficiency. Honestly, I don’t think there’s any way he does. All I’m saying is he absolutely takes advantage of the opportunities given to him, and he should absolutely be more involved in this offense in 2016. He doesn’t need the volume. Oh yeah, and he’s only 24.
I’ve preached countless times this offseason that you need to target running backs in your draft if you want to feel safe with your roster, and David Johnson is a guy that I will be targeting heavily.
He is currently ranked as the fifth overall player and RB2 in both Standard and PPR formats on FantasyPros, but that slot is met with a lot of nervousness. I have him ranked as my third overall player and RB1 in Standard and my fourth overall player and RB1 in PPR. To be blunt, I’m in.
You should be too.
