If you pick late in the first round, it might be wiser to select proven talent instead of hanging your hopes on an untested player like Ezekiel Elliott

Take it from me: Drafting with a late-round pick isn’t easy. In fact, it’s really difficult.

As the defending champion of the Screw T.O. league (the story behind the naming rights of the league is a story for another day), I was designated the 10th pick last summer in my 10-team, relatively standard league (our only unorthodox rule is QBs get five points per touchdown pass).

I was flying high after winning the league in 2014 thanks to my tremendous trio of DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown and Aaron Rodgers. All three players I drafted within the first three rounds, proving that you can indeed win your league if you nail your first three picks.

But fantasy football is relative, especially in a re-draft league like mine. Players change, situations are altered, players get hurt and this was my first time in the 10-hole. Let me tell you; it couldn’t have gone much worse.

My first four picks in order: Jeremy Hill (No. 14 RB in standard scoring last year), Demaryius Thomas (No. 13 WR), Justin Forsett (don’t ask) and Alshon Jeffery (injury-riddled, No. 41 WR).

You could argue whether Hill and/or Thomas were truly busts. But given their draft positions, I’d say they failed to return on the investment. Forsett was my worst draft pick of the year, and Jeffery’s unfortunate health problems couldn’t have been anticipated.

My strategy was to go for upside at running back and achieve balance with two receivers in the first two rounds. That strategy ultimately blew up in my face, but I thankfully added depth at tailback by also drafting Jonathan Stewart and Latavius Murray.

I still won the league thanks to Cam Newton, Brandon Marshall and some solid waiver acquisitions. But my draft strategy for the early rounds failed miserably.

Picking within the bottom of the round requires a unique mindset. This article won’t be an examination of who to take exactly, but rather a gameplan for how to attack your draft in the most efficient manner possible. All examples will be in a 10-team scenario, but the same principles apply to a larger format.

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1. You’re being dealt a bad hand if you’re picking at the bottom of the round

Let’s just cope with this before we hit the draft room. You aren’t at any advantage picking in the bottom third of your draft. Here’s why.

The most important quirk of picking near the bottom of the round is the lengthy layoff in between picks. Say you’re picking 10th out of 10 teams in a snake draft. While you get back-to-back selections, there will be 18 players taken off the board in between your next batch of picks. Compare that to picking fifth in a 10-team league, where there are only 10 picks in between your choices.

Now, you might be asking “Well, doesn’t the same principles apply if you’re picking in the upper third of your draft?” Yes, they do. But at least if you pick third you’re getting your choice of a top five player. The player pool has already weakened by the time you are on the clock. It’s unfortunate, but won’t be an excuse.

2. Play it safe early 

I can’t stress this enough, especially after the debacle that was my first four picks last season. I’d recommend safety, consistency and reliability over upside in at least the first two rounds.

The reason why is because of point No. 1. You have to realize the disparity of talent between picks.

Every league is different, and I can’t tell you who will be on the board, who might fall or who might get taken way too early by your peers. But I can urge you not to take any excessive risks.

That means possibly passing up on a potential star in Ezekiel Elliott at No. 9 overall and opting for a more established star like Rob Gronkowski, A.J. Green or even Jamaal Charles.

There’s risk in every pick you make, but let’s minimize that risk early on. Go for value in the middle rounds, where it’s an even bigger crapshoot. Use my first four picks from last year as an example of what can go wrong. If not for Newton, I probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs.

Some people buy into the high-risk, high-reward game. But remember, the player pool for your third and fourth round picks will be drastically worse than when you picked in the first and second rounds. In other words, your risk is amplified by this draft position.

You could take Elliott with the fifth overall pick and protect yourself by taking a Doug Martin or LeSean McCoy 10 picks in the second round. At the bottom of the draft, you most likely won’t have that luxury.

3. Be prepared to take a running back in the first two rounds 

Let’s do an experiment utilizing the wonderful Draft Wizard tool. Say I’m picking eighth in a 10-team league and I’m considering a zero RB strategy through at least my first two picks. In this scenario, I took Gronk and Allen Robinson.

The top tailbacks still on the board when I picked Robinson in the second round were Lamar Miller, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram and Martin. In other words, plenty of RB1s were still on the board.

Keep that in mind. Here’s who I was left to choose from as the best running backs available 14 picks later in the third round: Carlos Hyde, Thomas Rawls, Matt Forte and Latavius Murray. One of those four guys will be my RB1 and perhaps my RB2.

Who were the top receivers available? Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton and Demaryius Thomas. In other words, all nice WR2 or flex options.

Let’s apply the same exercise, except this time I’m picking third overall. I took Julio Jones with my first round pick and let the simulator fly. It’s the same 14-pick turnaround as picking eighth, but the running backs available were Ingram, Martin, McCoy and Eddie Lacy. I can probably live with one of those four as my RB1.

The main point of this exercise is to show why it’s important to adapt your strategy to your draft position. You don’t have to take a running back in the first round, but make sure you at least get one in the second. If not, you’ll likely be dealt with similar options to this scenario.

If you’re comfortable with Hyde as your RB1, then do you. But I’m not. Again, don’t take unnecessary risks.

4. Try to narrow down your realistic options 

My final point is research and preparation related. If you’re reading this article, you’re probably a very passionate player. Don’t be silly and hope for Adrian Peterson or Odell Beckham Jr., to fall to you. Instead, prepare rigorously, mock draft often and have a general idea of the players who tend to be available when you’re on the clock at each spot.

Use the close proximity between picks to your best advantage. Have an idea of who you like the best among the possible group of players on the board when you’re picking 10th and 11th or 30th and 31st.

Again, all leagues are different. But typically, people evaluate players by cheat sheet rankings. These rankings usually differ slightly, so many people are drafting off of similar information if not the same info.

Do people go against the status quo? Absolutely. A guy took Martellus Bennett in the fifth round of my league’s draft last year.

But I can’t tell you who might go rogue in your league. If you know someone picking near you likes to go with running backs with their first two picks, then adjust accordingly.

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Let me know how this strategy works out for you! Reach out on Twitter @RealMattBarbato for questions, comments and critiques.