Over the past three seasons, only five wide receivers have caught more touchdowns than Eric Decker. Since 2012, Decker is one of only five receivers to have three seasons of 10 or more receiving touchdowns. Entering the 2016 season, 23 other receivers are being drafted ahead of Decker. So what gives?
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A large contributing factor to Decker’s questionable ADP earlier this summer was the quarterback situation for the New York Jets. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, on July 27th, Decker was being drafted in the sixth round. His ADP has spiked since, but he still represents immense value at his current draft spot. Part of the reason for that spike? Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signed with the team on the 27th.
While ADP data fluctuates, Decker’s production on the field has remained consistent. Decker has the propensity to go overlooked because of the teammates that have overshadowed him. In Denver, Demaryius Thomas loomed large. After a year as top dog in New York, and another season of 110 or more targets, Brandon Marshall was brought to New York and Decker was once again the forgotten man. Or was he?
| Red Zone (2015) | Total Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Fantasy Points(PPR) | Current ADP |
| Player A | 28 | 12 | 75 | 10 | 252.70 | 44.4 (WR25) |
| Player B | 22 | 15 | 109 | 12 | 304.00 | 10.8 (WR7) |
| Player C | 22 | 11 | 63 | 3 | 269.36 | 28.8(WR17) |
Player B is Allen Robinson. Player C is Jarvis Landry. Player A is Decker. When the field gets short, Decker gets working. Of his 10 red zone touchdowns, seven came from plays inside the 10 yard line. Six of Decker’s red zone touchdowns in the red zone gave the Jets the lead. Needless to say, Decker has Fitzpatrick’s trust. The difference between Landry and Decker currently is nearly one and a half rounds for what surmounts to a point per game difference. In some senses, you might be able to pair the two in drafts.
It’s not just last season that Decker emerged as a legitimate fantasy option. Since 2012, only Anquan Boldin, A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Thomas and Decker have had 110 or more targets all four seasons. During that time period, Decker had 10 or more touchdowns in three of the four seasons. Following along? Decker is not only good, he’s in categories with some of the best receivers this decade. He’s also only 29 years old.
Jets receivers have the sixth lowest strength of schedule according to FantasyPros’ Strength of Schedule Draft Tool. That will help Decker, who had 79.16% of his receiving yards register as air yards. Decker wasn’t as productive after the catch. Decker ranked 106th in the NFL in yards after the catch, with just one more yard than Eddie Lacy.
Speaking of running backs, the Jets added a couple in free agency. While Matt Forte might siphon some of the targets, the exact impact to the passing game might be less than expected. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell combined for 100 targets last season. Forte and the rest of the running backs likely won’t harm Decker’s production in the red zone either. Ivory led the NFL with the most rushing attempts inside the five yard line (17) last season. I can’t imagine Khiry Robinson doing much better.
Decker isn’t a sexy name on fantasy draft day. He is a member of the group of stereotyped white slot receivers. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking him because he lacks flash, though. What he brings to the table is WR1 upside with a WR2 floor. A little more Fitz-magic in 2016 and Decker should flirt with 80 catches, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns for the fourth time in his career.
Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him@Mgiraldi.
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