What should fantasy owners expect from Allen Robinson in 2016?
1,400 yards, 80 receptions, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns grabs – some may call it a career year. Allen Robinson calls it his sophomore NFL season. To put these eye-popping numbers into proper historical perspective, here’s a stat for you; only three receivers in NFL history have met or exceeded these three receiving totals in a single NFL season. Their names? Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice.
No big deal.
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Anyway, back to A-Rob. He stands a lengthy 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, can run on the outside and dash across the middle to make a contested catch, and is a red-zone nightmare for opposing defenses. There’s no doubt he looks and plays the part of a No. 1 receiver to an absolute tee. I bet General Manager David Caldwell still pats himself on the back every morning for picking him with the 61st overall selection in 2014.
So, you should all expect an even BIGGER season in 2016 from the ex-Nittany Lion then, right? He is still only 22 years old amazingly enough (turning 23 later this month) and remains Jacksonville’s top offensive weapon in an offense that figures to be pass-first even after the five-year $32M deal they handed running back Chris Ivory to lure him away from the New York Jets via free agency. Even Jaguars.com’s John Oehser stated earlier this month that Robinson “has looked like a different receiver early in training camp – and a much better, one too. Showing improved route running and a my-ball mentality.” So, nothing’s going to stand in the way of the stud wide out embarrassing opposing cornerbacks on his way to smashing Moss’ single-season receiving numbers, right?
NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND.
Not that I suspect Robinson’s numbers to backslide enormously, but I at least want to pour an ounce of water onto the A-Rob fantasy bonfire. This is primarily due to three factors:
1) Jacksonville’s D looks rather loaded after acquiring several talented pieces in all three defensive levels via draft and free agency (pass rush specialist Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Prince Amukamara, top-five pick Jalen Ramsey, do-everything linebacker Myles Jack, and 2015 top-five pick returning from injury Dante Fowler).
2) Numerous offensive targets healthy around him (Allen Hurns, Chris Ivory, Julius Thomas, T.J. Yeldon, Marqise Lee, Rashad Greene). Therefore, Bortles may spread the ball around more. The young signal caller also won’t be forced to throw the rock a mammoth 37.875 times per game on average like he did last season due to playing behind so often as a result of poor defensive performances throughout the season.
3) Robinson had a catch rate of 53% on 151 targets in 2015, so it’s even tougher to assume 2016 will be an even more productive season. Also, six of his games via division scheduling will be against stellar corners in Vontae Davis, Johnathan Joseph, and Jason McCourty. No small task.
Conclusion
It’s rash to presume he’ll replicate his brilliant 2015 campaign. Now, I would still select A-Rob very high in standard and PPR leagues – just not in the first round. He’s a solid second-round lock and No. 7 wide receiver taken overall. I’d even pick him ahead of Dez Bryant just looking at trajectory and trend. Plus, the fact that Robinson wants to prove he has the talent to put together back-to-back monster seasons, which would also earn him an outrageous contract extension following this year. Furthermore, Robinson will also be out to prove he belongs in the same sentence as Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant. And, by the time the 2016 season concludes, I believe he will.
Expected Fantasy Line: 75 catches, 1,225 yards, 12 touchdowns
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Derek Guilford is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can read more from Derek by checking out his archive or follow him @derekguilford.
