How would a trade to the Dodgers impact Evan Longoria’s fantasy value?
One thing is for certain every year in the MLB, and that’s the trade deadline, which makes major league clubs become buyers or sellers. Commissioner Rob Manfred has set the deadline to August 1 this year due to July 31 falling on a Sunday. The impact that some of these trades have are enormous, and some come and go without very little buzz or impact.
In 2012, the Blue Jays pushed their poker chips to the middle of the table by acquiring R.A. Dickey from the Mets. Unfortunately, the players dealt to New York were Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud. However, prospects are prospects, and they don’t always pan out to be superstars like Noah Syndergaard or formidable catchers like Travis d’Arnaud.
The Brewers are a small market club that isn’t able to compete when it comes to free agency due to large market teams outbidding them. In 2008 they put together a World Series caliber team and went all-in by trading for C.C. Sabathia.
Milwaukee had to send four players to Cleveland in the deal. Those players were Matt LaPorta, Zach Johnson, Rob Bryson and Taylor Green. I’m not quite sure if their baseball cards are worth holding onto.
C.C. Sabathia went on to dominate the National League and lead the Brewers to the NLDS, then signed with the Yankees in the offseason. At least the Brewers “can’t miss” prospects didn’t pan out too much.
Fantasy baseball also feels the impact on these deadline deals as some players gain significant value and some lose value. If you had Manny Ramirez or “Mannywood” back in 2008 you know exactly what I’m talking about.
Ramirez was sent from Boston to Los Angeles, and all he needed was a new beginning. Ramirez went on to hit 17 home runs, 53 RBI with a .396 AVG and an absurd 1.232 OPS in only 187 at-bats.
Here are a few players that are potential trade candidates including a hypothetical landing destination and the fantasy impact it will have on the remainder of the season.
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Rangers land Jonathan Lucroy and Will Smith from the Brewers for Jurickson Profar, Luis Ortiz and Jose Trevino
The AL West is becoming a heated race between the Rangers and Astros with only four games between the two. The Rangers and Brewers have discussed Lucroy and Smith in potential trades recently, and both clubs match up well with each other.
Fantasy Impact
Lucroy would gain a positive boost in stock where he will be surrounded with massive talent from top to bottom. My assumption is that he would likely hit in the middle of the lineup with Adrian Beltre and Rougned Odor being the guys he would likely be surrounded by.
Smith would pave the way for the Rangers’ current closer Sam Dyson. If Smith were to become the setup man, his fantasy relevance would continue to be nonexistent. Obviously, Smith would gain huge value and an instant add if he were to take over the ninth inning.
Profar is the only player in the deal for the Brewers that would play in the majors in 2016. Profar is showing us why he was the former number one overall prospect when he gets playing time for the Rangers.
Profar would gain significant value this season as he would likely hit at the top of the Brewers’ lineup in an everyday role. Profar still has a high ceiling with plenty of appeal in keeper leagues.
Rays unload Evan Longoria and Jake Odorizzi for a slew of prospects from Los Angeles
It’s no secret that the Dodgers will be buyers at the deadline, and they don’t mind trading for players with monumental contracts. Longoria signed a deal that doesn’t expire until after the 2022 season with a club option in 2023.
Essentially the Dodgers would be picking up a six-year, $100M deal until 2022. If you divide that by 6.5, the Dodgers would be averaging around $15M per season for Longoria’s services.
Odorizzi is a 26-year-old with exceptional talent and upside and would fit right in with the Dodgers’ extremely injured rotation that could use another right-handed starter.
The Rays would only be willing to deal the likes of Longoria and Odorizzi if the price is right. Fortunately, the Dodgers have an abundance of prospects in their farm system. Andrew Friedman, former Rays’ GM and current VP for the Dodgers would have to send a package that includes Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, Scott Van Slyke, Austin Barnes and Ross Stripling.
Fantasy Impact
Longoria is already having a monster year, so expecting production at a higher rate is probably not realistic. The shift to Los Angeles, contending for a title and being surrounded with more talent would certainly help him sustain his current elite production.
Odorizzi would be a huge benefactor if he were sent to Los Angeles to pitch in the NL West. Moving away from the AL East and into the NL is a positive shift in a massive way. Buying low on Odorizzi and his upside could provide substantial benefits.
Justin Turner would lose his starting gig at third base to Longoria and would likely have to platoon with Chase Utley. If Turner were to become a platoon player, he would lose most of his value.
Montas is currently nursing cracked ribs and is expected to be out four-to-eight weeks. As of now, the Dodgers have stated that they expect him to pitch for the Dodgers this season.
Montas has only pitched 11 innings this in Triple-A this season, but he has displayed his elite prospect label with a 31.9% strikeout rate while showing command with a 4.3% walk rate and a 1.66 FIP. If Montas’ recovery goes well and the Rays promote him, he still won’t carry much relevance in 12-team mixed leagues.
Van Slyke would be an interesting acquisition in AL-only leagues. Van Slyke is a known lefty masher, and the Rays are well known for platooning players for the splits advantage. Van Slyke would fit right in as the Rays have done a fine job of hitting left-handed pitching this season, making him another addition to a Rays’ right-handed stack in DFS. Holmes, Barnes and Stripling would have little to no value this year.
Aroldis Chapman and Michael Pineda shipped to the nation’s capital
Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo has let it be known that he is in the market for a big time relief pitcher. Jonathan Papelbon has been on the disabled list this year and is by no means irreplaceable. The Yankees are well-known for not being sellers at the deadline due to their gigantic market and resources.
Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman would be all for selling now to win later if the ownership allows for that. This deal would ultimately send an elite closer to the Nationals during their playoff run and bolster their rotation while the Yankees stock up on inventory for 2017 and beyond.
Fantasy Impact
You already know the positive impact that Chapman would have pitching for the Nationals. He would continue to be an elite closer and likely get more save opportunities.
The negative would be if you owned Papelbon. He would immediately become droppable in all formats.
Pineda is a beast in my opinion, but everybody has their own opinion, and some may think differently. To each is own. Pineda sports a 27.1% strikeout rate this season with a shiny 3.32 SIERA. Pineda’s .342 BABIP is simply just too high and if you don’t think a change of scenery would help, think again.
Pineda has a 5.09 FIP at home this season. On the road, his FIP is an elite 2.61. Pineda would get a positive boost in park factor when pitching in Washington along with facing teams like the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Marlins in their parks.
Much less daunting than the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles. Buy immediately if Pineda is dealt to the Nationals or another team in a similar situation.
The players that the Yankees would get in a haul wouldn’t be ready for the 2016 season and wouldn’t have any impact. It would take guys like Victor Robles, Wilmer Difo and a couple of others to get this deal done.
Jay Bruce heads to the Bay
The Giants are missing Hunter Pence and could use more pop with below-average power. The Reds are most certainly going to dump Bruce off somewhere.
Hunter Pence is supposedly coming back and if/when he does, the Giants could still use a power bat like Bruce to bring more presence to the middle of their lineup. The Reds were fortunate enough to snag Adam Duvall away from San Francisco last season and will look to hit the bullseye again.
Fantasy Impact
Bruce would take a slight dip in the home run department if he were to play for the Giants with his home games in San Francisco at AT&T Park. The hitters around him as a whole would improve his probability of driving in and scoring more runs. I think Bruce would become a better overall hitter in San Francisco even though you might lose the current home run rate.
The Giants wouldn’t have to send their top prospect in Christian Arroyo to Cincinnati for Bruce. It would be somebody at another tier, and they wouldn’t have any impact this season.
Indians trade for Carlos Beltran to add outfield insurance and postseason experience
There has been a revolving door in the Indians’ outfield for years, and they have been linked to multiple outfielders like Bruce, Josh Reddick, etc. The Yankees have no reason to hold onto Beltran and his current productivity.
The Indians are finally in a position to make a serious run at the AL Central, but their sights are set much higher than that. Carlos Beltran is one of the greatest hitters in the postseason and has a tremendous amount of experience. Beltran would be a huge addition to the Indians.
Fantasy Impact
Beltran is having a tremendous season with 19 HR, 58 RBI and a .301 AVG. Beltran would hit in the heart of the order and would be surrounded by Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and potentially the currently injured Michael Brantley. Let’s not forget that Mike Napoli is raking this season, and Beltran could help mentor Tyler Naquin.
Like the Giants’/Reds’ deal for Bruce, the Indians wouldn’t have to send their top level prospects for Beltran. The players sent to New York wouldn’t have any appeal this season.
Red Sox’s lineup quite possibly the best after acquiring Carlos Gonzalez from the Rockies, and Boone Logan bolsters the Sox’s currently weak pen
Gonzalez has mentioned multiple times that he wants to be traded and play for a contender. The Rockies are open to trading him and who better than the Red Sox?
CarGo can play left field where they’ve had a carousel all year. The Rockies are 14 games back and won’t be getting close to the Dodgers or Giants anytime soon.
Logan is having a fantastic season in the Rockies’ bullpen, pitching in the toughest park. Logan would be a major upgrade to the Red Sox’s current bullpen.
It would be incredible for Colorado to somehow figure out a way to get Andrew Benintendi in the deal. If Benintendi isn’t in the trade, the Rockies should be getting plenty of prospects with high regards.
Fantasy Impact
Gonzalez going to Boston would be an ideal landing spot for fantasy owners. There aren’t many hitters and many teams or ballparks that wouldn’t downgrade a player after leaving Coors Field. AL East + Fenway Park + Boston lineup with CarGo = two thumbs up.
Logan wouldn’t be in line to close games for the Red Sox and wouldn’t gain relevance. Not sure it would happen, but if Benintendi is shipped to Colorado, he becomes a very intriguing add if he is called up.
Dynasty owners would be thrilled, and keeper league owners would need to jump on the waiver wire or place an aggressive FAAB bid. Redraft leaguers will also want to add Benintendi if he is called up.
Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.
