On May 30th, the Golden State Warriors sent the Thunder fishing and a little more than two months later, the Warriors cast their own line in the water and pulled out a whale. Mark your calendar for Independence Day, 2016, when Kevin Durant ignored the critics and exercised his freedom to chase a championship ring.
It wasn’t long ago when all the buzz was about forming a big three, but the time is now for a core four. As basketball fans, you either hate it or love it. As fantasy players, we’re wondering what the impact will be.
Let’s get one thing clear. Kevin Durant is an elite basketball player in his prime looking to take the next step and he chose to do so with the Warriors. He has spent his whole life working on his craft so there’s no reason to think he’s all of a sudden going to take it easy now. He is easily in the conversation when it comes to the best players in the world. So is Steph Curry. If we’re talking about shooters, so is Klay Thompson. If we’re talking about karate kicks, so is Draymond Green… okay that was a low blow… I’ll stop now. The point is, from a fantasy perspective, things shouldn’t change too much for the names above considering their strengths, personalities, and the offensive system that’s in place.
Naturally, people will jump to the conclusion that the field goal attempts will drop for each player and in turn, their scoring will take a hit. Both are legitimate concerns. However, in the fantasy world, their values are not that cut and dry. Let’s also not go overboard thinking that this will be a similar transition for Durant as it was for LeBron James when he joined the Heat. The Warriors led the league in assists and showed for most of the playoffs that anyone could be a major contributor (this is not a selfish team considering the caliber of talent on the roster). So how should we expect things to shake out from here? Let’s take a look at each player individually.
Kevin Durant (SF)
2015-16 Key Stats: 35.8 min, 19.2 fga, 28.2 pts, 8.2 reb, 5.0 ast
The 2014 MVP is now playing on the same team as the 2015/2016 MVP, but don’t expect the former to take much of a fantasy hit. One reason that stands out is Durant’s game is not predicated on one specific ability, but instead he’s a capable scorer, passer and rebounder. A key component to recruiting Durant was the assurance that he would fit in seamlessly in Golden State’s “Strength in Numbers” motto. The appeal of having world class players around him that play a style of basketball that is all about the team and winning was just too perfect. Vegas shifted the odds immediately making the Warriors clear favorites to win it all at 4:5. The Thunder, on the other hand, dropped from 8:1 to 30:1. It’s more than just hype. Kevin Durant is that good and the Warriors are that much better with him on the team.
When looking at what holes he fills, arguably his biggest scoring asset besides his height and shooting touch, is his ability to get to the free-throw line. If you didn’t notice, one of Golden State’s biggest flaws last season was getting to the line as the team finished 23rd in the league with 21.8 ft/gm. Durant, on the other hand, has always had the ability to earn trips to the charity stripe with 6.9 attempts per game last season (good for 11th in the league), and a career average of 8.1 ft/gm. He’ll now have the luxury of playing in the vaunted “death” lineup and the driving lanes will likely never look more open with teams focused on all the perimeter threats. KD should thrive in this offense.
Speaking of the death lineup, we’re talking about the Warriors rolling out the following five guys: Curry (PG), Thompson (SG), Iguodala (SF), Durant (PF) and Green (C). In case you’re wondering, the five players have combined for 14 All-Star appearances, 5 scoring titles, consists of 2 league MVPs, 1 Finals MVP, and 2 All-Defensive First Team members. But I digress. Something that you can’t ignore for fantasy purposes is the possibility that Durant may gain eligibility at the PF position much like Draymond Green did last year. If he does, even if it’s later in the season, his value increases instantly.
As for his overall scoring and field goal attempts, the immediate place we can look to is Harrison Barnes‘ vacated spot (9.6 fga/gm). Yes, that still leaves him nearly ten shots short of what he attempted last season, but don’t expect to see Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green on the floor together for 30+ minutes a game. With the depleted depth, it’s reasonable to expect the Warriors to spread out their stars to maximize their scoring abilities while also keeping them fresh. With that in mind, compare these lineups.
2015-16 Field Goal Attempts/Game:
- Kevin Durant (19.2), Stephen Curry (20.2), Draymond Green (10.1) = 49.5 attempts
- Kevin Durant (19.2), Klay Thompson (17.3), Draymond Green (10.1) = 46.6 attempts
- Kevin Durant (19.2), Russell Westbrook (18.1), Serge Ibaka (11.1) = 48.4 attempts
It’s not a stretch to imagine the Warriors using either one of those lineups for periods of time and in those instances, the shot opportunities will be there.
Bottom Line:
Whatever Durant loses in field goal attempts and points per game, he should be able to see a boost in various other fantasy categories such as FTA, FG%, and assists (likely to see the biggest increase). He’ll also be working in an offense that was second in the league in pace and first in offensive efficiency. It’s certainly possible his scoring takes a slight dip, but it’s also not out of the question that his numbers stay pretty much unchanged. He’ll still be one of the first players drafted and there’s a good reason for that.
Stephen Curry (PG)
2015-16 Key Stats: 34.2 min, 20.2 fga, 30.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.7 ast
The unanimous MVP was smothered in the NBA finals leading to a FG% of .403 and 3P% of .400, both below his season averages. He also averaged 4.29 turnovers/gm during the series with the increased defensive pressure. This all should change for the positive with Durant in the picture.
It’ll be absolutely impossible now for teams to focus heavily on shutting down Curry. Will Curry jack up nearly 900 three’s again (he attempted 886) and make over 400? It’s safe to say probably not. Can he be close to his career average of 7.3 attempts and 3.2 made? Absolutely. As of right now, the depth of the Warriors is pretty shallow and that can actually be a positive for Curry’s fantasy value as he may be needed more often in the fourth. Let’s not forget that he sat out 17 fourth quarters last season when the team built up massive leads. That can certainly happen again, but the bench may not be able to close out games quite as easily this upcoming season.
It’s hard to imagine Curry putting up 30.1 ppg while leading the league in scoring again, but a massive drop in points shouldn’t be expected. Keep in might that the 2013-14 Curry (24 ppg) and 2014-15 Curry (23.8 ppg) would have been one and two respectively in scoring among point guards during those seasons. Put those same numbers in the 2015-16 season and you have the second and third-highest scoring point guards. So ask yourself this, suppose Curry doesn’t surpass his new career high from last season (might not have even without KD signing), and based on the last three seasons, he ends up producing at a clip of 25.9 pts, 7.6 ast, and 4.7 reb — is he not part of the fantasy elite?
Bottom Line:
When Curry looks to the left and right, he’ll be flanked by two of the best shooters in the league and we have every right to expect a slight increase in his assist totals. Teams also won’t be able to double-team him as much with multiple other options on the floor. That in turn, should produce higher quality shots and improved court vision. Curry should have an easier time all around in 2017, and that puts him right there alongside Russell Westbrook as the top fantasy point guard option.
Klay Thompson (SG)
2015-16 Key Stats: 33.3 min, 17.3 fga, 22.1 pts
Much like Curry, Thompson does a lot of damage behind the arc. He’s definitely a more than capable scorer inside the 3-point line, but because of the long ball, he can put up points in bunches with the best of them. Out of all the players, he’ll probably see the biggest drop in production between the core four. His fantasy value is heavily reliant on scoring and 3s, but don’t think that he just falls off the board in fantasy drafts. Before the Durant decision, Thompson’s ranking in the major fantasy scoring categories was as follows:
2015-16 Rankings:
- Points Per Game: 3rd
- Rebounds Per Game: Tied for 9th
- Assists Per Game: Tied for 18th
- 3s Per Game: 1st
- FG%: 2nd
- FT%: 5th
After James Harden, an argument could be made that DeMar DeRozan and Jimmy Butler are worthy of being the next top SGs in fantasy (both players ranked higher than Thompson in at least two categories). So does Thompson’s draft stock tumble, maybe a bit, but is it because of a potential drop-off in production? Not necessarily. His value was already a toss-up depending on what your draft strategy will be. If you’re looking for 3s, Thompson should still be tops in the category even with Durant’s arrival. His FG% should stay fairly consistent as well. The Warriors offense is built around ball movement, motion, fast breaks and feeding the hot hand. We all know how hot Thompson can get and just think about some of the open looks he’ll have with KD now in town. Unlike Andre Roberson, you can be sure that Thompson won’t hesitate to launch even with the slightest opening.
Not a believer in the extra open looks? If you had the chance to watch the Warriors last season on a regular basis, you will have seen a Klay Thompson and Draymond Green led lineup taking the floor occasionally. ESPN took a look at the impact of a Curry-less offense and there are some interesting takeaways. It’s no surprise that Klay Thompson’s usage rate spiked dramatically when Curry was off the floor (+33.2%). That didn’t translate, though, into a higher rate of efficiency on converted opportunities.
The Warriors were 3rd in the league in Quantified Shot Quality when Curry was on the floor. When Curry was off… wait for it… they were 4th. Okay, not a huge drop in shot quality (a big testament to the system, another reason why Durant shouldn’t cause issues), but what we’re missing here is how much better/worse the Warriors were on converting those shots. This is where Quantified Shooter Impact comes into play and it’s a much more telling story as the Warriors drop from first in the league to fifteenth. The simple explanation would be that it takes the team that much more energy and efficiency to get off a good shot. Durant’s presence should surely affect this in a positive way for all players on the court.
There’s one other element that shouldn’t be overlooked. Thompson expelled a lot of energy on the defensive end and was often asked to guard the top guards/small forwards. Durant is a more than capable defender if needed and can provide at the bare minimum, some relief in that department. It certainly can’t hurt for Thompson and his legs.
Bottom Line:
Thompson is going to have a bit more breathing room and should be able to get better looks more often. His scoring efficiency should theoretically increase and he also won’t be asked as often to carry the load in the absence of Curry (which can be a good thing). While a scoring drop will be expected, he’s still a top SG option for fantasy purposes and will undoubtedly have some big games. Last season, his 3P% was .425 and he made 3.1 three’s on 8.1 attempts per game. While his attempts may not go up, the percentage very well could.
Draymond Green (PF)
2015-16 Key Stats: 34.7 min, 10.1 fga, 14 pts, 9.5 reb, 7.4 ast
Since joining the league, Green has increased his production across every single stat category for four years straight now. The only time this didn’t happen was with his steals/gm which went from 1.6 to 1.5 last year. The biggest noticeable improvement was his outside shooting where he increased his 3P% from .337 to .388. He has already catapulted himself into a top-tier PF and even incremental improvements in any category will only further cement his fantasy value.
There is no question what he brings to the table each game. With 13 triple-doubles during the regular season, he was only second in the league to none other than Durant’s former running mate, Russell Westbrook. He wasn’t too shabby in the double-double department either, accumulating 33 last season (good for 16th in the league). Of the core four, Green’s value will likely be the least affected. What he may lose in points will be made up in assists. If there’s one thing to know about Green, all signs point to him taking greater pleasure in helping his teammates score than scoring for himself. With what Durant brings to the table, Green will have plenty of chances to feed another mouth.
Bottom Line:
Green will likely take a small hit in field goal attempts and scoring, but not as much as one may expect. He is a scrapper and has also turned himself into a legit 3-point threat from his position. His ball-handling and finishing ability has also greatly improved. The Warriors tempo and pace could be even higher than last season and that plays right into Green’s abilities and high motor. With the offensive fire power around him, he’ll have his share of open shots along with even more assist opportunities. There should be little doubt as to what production you’ll get when drafting Green this upcoming season, and that’s a potential triple-double in any given game.
* Quantified Shot Quality: Measures the quality of a shot as the expected field goal percentage of a shot given the location, the shot type and the movement of the defense around the shooter (adjusted to account for 3-point shots). The quality of a shot is independent of whether or not a shot goes in.
* Quantified Shooter Impact: Measures how much better/worse than average a shooter’s performance is given the particular shot (same variables above).