Julio Jones’ freakish talent has led to several injuries to his lower extremities

As fantasy drafts approach, I find myself pretty clear on who I am comfortable drafting at the top of each offensive position. I have already discussed the factors that allow me to draft Le’Veon Bell at the top of my running backs list; I think quarterback is one of the most interchangeable positions as usual, but I put Cam Newton as the clear number one option; and we all know that tight end will be Gronkowski’s world until he gets caught in one of those bear traps or some hunter gets lucky. Wide receiver appears to be the most competitive position for that number one spot for me, and therefore I am using Injury Science to distinguish who I should take at the top.

I am sure there are some of you who will think of other wide receivers that may be appropriate for consideration, but after looking at the numbers I have decided to look at Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones. Each of them has injury concerns to consider, but in my opinion one of them is clearly the best option as the number one wide receiver based on the combination of low floor for injury risk and high ceiling for production. Lets look at each of their injury and performance profiles to see how they compare.

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Odell Beckham Jr.

Injury to be concerned with: hamstring strains,  muscle strains (general)

The wide receiver position can be different for each player as some receivers travel to the middle of the field often to meet up with linebackers and safeties, while some are always down the field or near the sidelines to limit their injury exposure. Odell Beckham Jr. is so special that I really don’t know that he fits either group. He seems to avoid the big hit over the middle with pure speed and quickness, and when he gets down the field he rarely seems to even get tackled. If anything, I fear that Beckham Jr. will injure himself with his own talent rather than another player injuring him.I often use the term

I often use the term “Freaky Talented”, and this term describes OBJ to a tee. “Freaky Talented” athletes are the type who could walk on a field without knowing the play and not warming up and still dominate simply because they have more talent than everyone else. The ultimate wide receiver example of this in recent memory would have to be Randy Moss in his prime, as he literally could just run by you and out jump you on every play. These athletes can usually run, jump, and cut at a ridiculous rate, but in many cases this type of ability will cause injury if not managed and controlled well.

The fact that Odell Beckham Jr. has suffered multiple non-contact hamstring injuries during his NFL career as well as a groin injury in college, and has no contact injuries of note, suggest that he is as much a danger to himself as others are to him. Muscular injuries are usually a symptom of your body not being able to keep up its talent. This tendency with Beckham worries me, if I am considering him as my top wideout. Furthermore, Odell Beckham Jr.’s recent training displays on various media outlets, suggest that he is focused on becoming even more explosive.

Being explosive is the name of the game on the football field, but at some point I think a bomb shows that it has enough explosiveness to blow up anything. I think it may be time to figure out ways to contain or control the explosiveness that he possesses, rather than continuing to increase it. I do not claim to be an insider to Beckham’s workouts, but the publicized videos and descriptions seem to be all about explosion, speed, and quickness. Fantasy owners who plan to invest in OBJ should hope that containment is at least a secondary focus with his training, and that maybe it is simply not being publicized.

With Odell Beckham Jr.’s injury history; eccentric exercises, muscle balancing exercises, as well as dynamic flexibility activities would be the best approach to decrease his risk of another muscle strain or worse. As is, I would not be surprised to see Odell Beckham Jr. miss 1-to-3 games this season and struggle with some in season muscular injuries that decrease his productivity for particular stretches of the season.

Antonio Brown

Injury to be concerned with: late season concussion to end last season

Antonio Brown has staked his claim as one of the best wide receivers in the league. From a profile standpoint, Brown almost looks like a more mature version of Odell Beckham Jr. From the standpoint of injury history, Brown shows a much more favorable past. Aside from a concussion that came from a dirty hit last year, Brown has not been injured since 2012 with a high ankle sprain. Considering the volume that he gets as Ben Roethlisberger’s No. 1 wide receiver, this is very impressive. When I looked a little into Brown’s training regimen, it helped me understand how he stays off the injury report. It doesn’t take long to find images of Brown holding difficult Pilates poses, and it appears that this has been a staple of his training regimen for some time. Unlike Beckham Jr., I did not see the word explosion much when reviewing Brown’s training, and the overriding themes seemed to be centered around Pilates and field work.

I believe Antonio Brown to be very talented, but I actually think he leans a little bit more toward my “Supremely Skilled” category. I reserve this category for players who rely more on a very high skill level rather than their talent, and in looking at Brown’s training, you can see that this is reflected. A player who relies on skill will often do more field work and focus more on techniques, routes, and body control while their Freaky Talented counterparts are often trying to keep their talent bag filled to the top with more speed, strength, and explosiveness. At 27 years old, I consider Antonio Brown to be near his physical prime and consider his risk for injury low. The benefit of a Supremely Skilled player like Antonio Brown is two-fold as these players rarely cause themselves injury by pushing to explosive limits that their body can’t handle. Secondly, in the event that they do suffer a minor injury, their production does not usually suffer significantly as skill can usually endure through physical injuries and fatigue.

Julio Jones

Injury to be concerned with: extensive history of hamstring strains and lower extremity injuries

The fact that Julio Jones and Antonio Brown are the same age makes it very clear that you can’t simply predict a wide receiver’s injury risk purely based on age. Jones has more than quadrupled Brown’s injury occurrence so far, and I expect this trend to continue. I know I called Odell Beckham Jr. Freaky Talented, but Jones is probably the active President of this club. At 6’3″ and 220 lbs, he is clearly the fastest, strongest, and highest jumping of this threesome despite his stature. Jones is almost the definition of Freaky Talented, and while this is great when he is healthy and on the field, those like me who have owned Julio in the past know that every week is a waiting game as he appears on the injury list very frequently.

I simply don’t think that Jones body can keep up with his talent as it is virtually impossible to get a completely healthy season out of him. Even if he plays all 16 games you can rest assured that there will be ankle twist, hamstring pull, and other muscular injuries scattered throughout his season. Jones is another athlete that would likely benefit from significant focus on muscle balance and Pilates-type activity, rather than ratcheting up his fast twitch nature with training focused on becoming more explosive. I was unable to find much about what Jones is doing for his offseason training, but truthfully there is no single offseason training program that would change my mind on him. I simply think he is built to be spectacular, but not necessarily over long periods of time. Similar to Beckham, I expect him to miss at least a couple of games this season, and for him to be less than 80 percent for many other games with some type of nagging injury.

My Top Pick

After studying these three, I think that it is clear that Antonio Brown is the top option at receiver. Many will note that this suggest that Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are the top picks at their positions although they must share the same ball, but as an avid daily fantasy player I know that there are at least three millionaires out there who have taken this combo straight to the bank.

Although it is unlikely that you can land both Bell and Brown in a seasonal league, you can always try. As for the other two receivers, I would not hesitate to take either if my other options have been taken, but just beware that you must have back-ups and more conservative players ready to take their place when they blow out a tire.

Also check out our WR bust candidates

Dr. Eric Petty is a Physical Therapist who is taking his talents from the treatment room to help fantasy owners. You can find more of his work at his site, The Injury Report Doctor, and you can follow him @DrPettyIRD.