Jamal Murray just might end up being Rookie of the Year
With the NBA draft right around the corner, June 23rd to be exact, we thought it was time to take a look at some of the prospects likely to hear their names called early in the draft.
We already touched on the forwards and will hit the centers later. Now we will focus on the backcourt to look at the most intriguing point, shooting, and combo guards available in the 2016 NBA draft.
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Stand Out Guards
Kris Dunn (Providence)
In his first two seasons at Providence, Dunn suffered multiple shoulder injuries limiting his development. After a breakout 2014-15 where the point guard averaged 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game and won Big East Player of the Year, Dunn returned for another season and continued to dominate the competition as he won another Big East POY award.
Standing at 6’4″, Dunn’s size allows him to see over defenders allowing him to use his excellent court vision to facilitate the offense. His superior jumping ability, quickness, and ability to change gears helps Dunn find the open man, elevate over a defender on a pull-up jumper, or break down a defense. His overall athletic ability combined with his size helps Dunn fit the mold of a prototypical NBA point guard.
Despite all of his athletic prowess, Dunn’s decision making is brought into question. His 3.85 turnovers per game the last two seasons is by far the most of any of the top point guard prospects in the draft. The other concern for the former Friar is his inconsistent jump shooting. After hitting over 47 percent of his shots in in 2014-15, Dunn saw his numbers decline to 44.8 percent. Even with the questions about his shooting and sloppy ball handling, the 22-year-old is expected to be taken possibly in the top five of the draft and will likely be the first point guard off the board.
Jamal Murray (Kentucky)
While playing his lone college season at Kentucky, the 19-year-old Murray was easily the Wildcats’ most dependable scorer as he averaged 20.0 point per game. Despite being so young, he was the SEC’s second-leading scorer and was at the front of the pack regarding three-pointers made with 113. The Canadian native also displayed his big game ability as he had three games with 30-plus points and only one in single digits.
The 6’5″ guard showed a natural scoring ability, whether it be his flawless shooting stroke or his aggressiveness near the rim. Murray has excellent footwork and soft hands capable of dropping in floaters and runners despite a lack of explosive jumping ability. His scoring instincts are on point as he has a great feel for what type of shot is needed at the right moment.
Besides the typical concerns with his defense, Murray is not the most gifted passer as he committed more turnovers, 2.3 per game, than assists, 2.2. That will factor into his transition to the NBA as at 6’5″, Murray is seen as more of a combo guard than a classic two guard. Since he is only 19-years-old, he has plenty of time to improve his court vision and blossom into one of the best all-around scoring guards to come out of the 2016 draft.
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma)
As Oklahoma charged its way through the NCAA tournament, Hield enthralled fans with his long distance prowess. The shooting guard led the NCAA his senior year with 147 made three-pointers per game, the most in the NCAA since Stephen Curry’s 162 in 2008. All those bombs led Hield to 25.0 points per game, helping him earn multiple player of the year honors including the James Naismith Award.
One of the best pure shooters in years, Hield routinely knocked down shots from NBA three-point range, even with a hand in his face. He excels at the pull-up jumper in transition or the pick-and-pop. No one is concerned about how his shooting ability will translate to the next level; his role in a professional offense is another story.
The main knock on the 22-year-old is his inability to create for his teammates and his tendency to get a little sloppy handling when asked to facilitate. With 2.0 assists compared to 3.1 turnovers per game in his final season, Hield has the look of an off the ball shooter ala J.J. Redick or Kyle Korver. Both are solid players but are drop off from the Curry or C.J. McCollum comparisons floating around.
Wade Baldwin (Vanderbilt)
After starting his freshman year off the ball, Baldwin quickly was anointed Vanderbilt’s starting point guard halfway through his first season. In his sophomore campaign, the 6’3″ guard led the Commodores to a 19-12 record as he averaged 14.1 points and 5.2 assists per game. During his college career, Baldwin showcased his shooting stroke as he made over 42 percent of his three-point shots and 80 percent from the line.
Possessing incredible length with his 6’10” wingspan and powerful upper body strength, Baldwin has all the tools to be a plus defender at the next level. His strength also allowed him to initiate contact while driving the lane showcased by his impressive 7.7 free throw attempts per 40 minutes. Despite his willingness to draw contact, Baldwin struggled to finish when at the rim.
His lack of a quick burst or explosiveness forced the point guard to toss up awkward shots from poor angles when in the lane or take on too many offensive fouls. While he is a willing facilitator on offense, he also needs to work on his decision-making ability as he seems to run the floor without a plan at times. Despite the necessity of refinement, the underlying tools are there for the 20-year-old to reach his potential as an above-average point guard at the next level.
Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame)
Jackson spent his first two years at Notre Dame either riding the bench or playing off the ball as future first-round pick Jerian Grant ran the floor. After Grant had left, Jackson took over duties as the Irish floor general finishing second in the ACC in assists. While his shooting percentage took a tumble in his junior year, from .508 to .451, his scoring average rose by over 25 percent to 15.8 points per game.
Despite the increased scoring, a big concern for Jackson was how his three-point shooting fell off. After making 42.5 percent from beyond the arc in his freshman and sophomore seasons, Jackson was only able to hit on 33.1 percent his junior year. One reason for the drop off was his inability to shoot off the dribble. Another is the 21-year-old’s lack of point guard experience. However, Jackson did show signs of improvement in his floor vision and shot choices as the year went on.
What Jackson lacks in size, he is barely 6’0″ without shoes; he makes up for with his strength and athleticism. He has a quick first step and isn’t afraid to draw contact when driving to the basket. Overall, Jackson is one of the few point guard prospects capable of starting in the NBA in their rookie year.
Other notable guards
Denzel Valentine – Valentine had one of the best all-around seasons in recent college memory as he averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game as he easily won Big 10 Player of the Year. Despite his scoring ability, he nailed 44.4 percent of his three-point attempts; the 6’6″ guard is dropping in mocks due to his absolute lack of defensive ability.
Tyler Ullis – Possibly the best playmaking point guard in the draft, Ullis performed at a high level while playing for Kentucky last season. His 17.3 points were second on the squad while he distributed 7.0 assists per game. The main knock on the 20-year-old is his size as Ullis is generously listed at 5’10”.
Furkan Korkmaz – The 18-year-old Turkish shooting guard may be the best three-point shooter in the draft, but his inexperience may lead an NBA team to draft and stash Korkmaz overseas for a year or two. If he does transition to the U.S. this season, he may see little playing time due to his below-average defense.
Malik Beasley – Beasley showcased his sweet shooting stroke in his one season at Florida State as he hit 47 percent from the field and 39 percent from three. A versatile scorer, the 6’5″ guard can score inside and out while providing solid rebounding numbers from the wing.
Dejuante Murray – A combo guard who primarily ran the point for the fastest team in college, the Washington Huskies, Murray is drawing comparisons to another Seattle native, Jamaal Crawford. An explosive scorer, Murray needs to improve his decision-making to be effective at the NBA level.
Dale Redman is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Dale, check out his archive and follow him @DTRedman.
