Derek Henry was superb against the SEC, how will he do against the AFC South?

Eric Moody discusses his outlook for Titans rookie RB Derrick Henry.

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Which NFL team drafted Heisman trophy winners in consecutive seasons? The answer to this question is the Tennessee Titans. The team drafted quarterback Marcus Mariota last year and running back Derrick Henry this year. This has only occurred six times in NFL Draft history with the last time being in 1989. The Detroit Lions drafted running back Barry Sanders that year followed by quarterback Andre Ware. We know how the Lions’ teams panned out, but the story has yet to be written on Mariota, Henry, and what impact these players will have on your fantasy team. This article will share what you should know about Derrick Henry heading into the 2016 season.

The Collegiate Statistical Body of Work Matters

Henry enters the NFL as the epitome of a big back at 71.5 inches and 247 pounds with an even more impressive resume. He was the Crimson Tide’s starting running back leading the team to victory in the College Football Playoff National Championship and winning the Heisman Trophy. The Doak Walker and Maxwell Award winner led the nation with 2,219 yards and 28 rushing touchdowns. Henry averaged 179.2 yards per game against Southeastern Conference opponents and 166 yards per game against ranked teams (nine games). He was only the third running back in Southeastern Conference history behind Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson to have four 200-yard games in a single season. Henry averaged 102.8 yards per game after contact and led the nation with 60 missed tackles. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry and had 45 runs of 12 yards or more.

The Game Film Never Lies

I would describe Henry’s running style as blunt force trauma. He imposes his will on defenders. Henry has good athletic ability and play speed for a running back with his height/weight ratio. He has solid instincts, vision, awareness, and can be very effective in zone or power running schemes.

Henry had 619 touches in 39 games with the Crimson Tide with 65.5% coming in 2015. This type of volume resulted in him leading the nation in plays from scrimmage, rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. What type of effect will this workload have on his durability at the NFL level? Here is a visual of his rushing production as a collegiate player.

Henry is an adequate pass blocker and very seldom used as a receiver out of the backfield. He displays marginal cutback ability. Henry’s long stride does not allow him to build up speed quickly. He has marginal foot quickness that can lead to tackles for losses if he is not decisive in the backfield.

Overall, Henry has the agility and play speed to a functional back, but could maximize his abilities by improving his second read in a zone scheme, pass protection, and catching ability. He appears to be suited as a two-down player in a running back by committee in a power running or zone scheme. This makes Henry more game flow dependent from a fantasy perspective. When you look at his combine metrics and body mass index he has a similar profile of running backs like Steven Jackson, LenDale White, and Toby Gerhart.

Can DeMarco Murray and Henry co-exist?

Titans head coach Mike Mularkey spoke with Murray after the team drafted Derrick Henry, according to TitansOnline.com, reiterating that he was “still going to be the guy who is going to carry the load for us.” Henry and Murray will form a running back by committee. This situation on the surface will be very frustrating for fantasy owners. I prefer to roll the dice with the running back who is younger and with less overall mileage. Murray has had 1,127 carries in his five-year career getting brutalized by NFL defenders. In his two most successful seasons (2013 and 2014 with the Dallas Cowboys), Murray played in 14 or more games and received 63 percent or greater of the team’s carries. I do not envision that scenario taking place with the Titans in 2016 with Henry on this roster.

Will the Titans’ offense improve this upcoming season?

Henry’s fantasy success or failure comes down to the Titans’ offense. Football Outsiders has a metric called offense DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average). It measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. The Titans’ offense ranked last in this metric in 2015. This also resulted in the Titans’ offense having only 22 carries inside the 10-yard line last season. Henry will not be able to display his ability if the Titans’ offense does not improve in 2016.

Final Thoughts

Henry has the potential to be an every-down back in the NFL. The hurdles he will have to overcome are DeMarco Murray and the Titans’ offense. The question you have to ask yourself is what draft capital is his services worth? Henry will likely open the season as the No. 2 running back, splitting carries with Murray and his well-documented injury history. If Murray were to miss time due to an injury then Henry becomes a plug-and-play RB2. This is the type of player worth stashing on your bench.

Sources: Pro Football Reference, Sports Reference, Football Outsiders