It’s that time of year again. The days are getting longer and warmer. Birds are chirping, flowers are blooming, and the NFL Draft has come and gone. This is a time that is as important as ever for dynasty owners. Leagues begin to heat up again and owners should be speaking with every team to improve their roster or draft position. A huge key to winning big trades is getting players at the peak of their careers.
Every season, some big players are overvalued. Examples from 2015 can include wide receiver Andre Johnson and tight end, Jordan Cameron.
In weeks past, we’ve analyzed players that are flying a little bit under that radar in dynasty and keeper leagues. However, to obtain an underrated player, an owner must trade away an overrated player at a high value. This week, we will cover overrated quarterbacks that are ranked too highly in fantasy rankings.
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It is important to note that an overrated player is not necessarily a bad player. However, the picks below are simply not worth their current market value on cheat sheets and rankings. While some of these players may have some promise, to obtain them in a trade may not be worth your while. In fact, if an owner owns these players, they could try to “sell high” based on their high current value.
Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN) – Seventh in our Dynasty Rankings
Mariota may never be a top five quarterback to me. To have him ranked this highly after one season is interesting considering the circumstances.
Sure, Mariota is a young and talented individual who set some records during his rookie season. However, he had come up short in a few areas too.
The former Oregon Duck hasn’t shown that he can put the Titans on his shoulders and carry them to victory. In times where his teammates played poorly, like Week 6 versus Miami, Mariota also played poorly. It was later learned that Mariota sprained his MCL during that loss in Week 6.
However, when he returned in Week 9, his play never really improved significantly. In only 11 full games, Mariota turned the ball over often by throwing ten interceptions and losing six fumbles. He also averaged just 253 passing YPG. The NFL average in 2015 was just over 259 YPG.
Now that lackluster passing performance can be attributed to a lack of weapons around Mariota. But that is another problem that adds to his downside. The Titans did recently trade for a legitimate running back in DeMarco Murray and also drafted the monster running back that is Derrick Henry.
Doubling down on talented running backs suggests that the Titans don’t yet trust their young QB and plan on running the ball more often. It also points out that the Titans’ offense has other flaws too. Wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham is raw and has talent, but hasn’t cemented himself as an elite player.
Additional targets Kendall Wright, Rishard Matthews and Justin Hunter have had limited success but are only truly effective in smaller roles. A new and exciting addition to the Titans is wide receiver Tajae Sharpe from the University of Massachusetts. He could help out with the passing attack, but does not have a “superstar” tag.
To add to mediocrity, the Titans’ offensive line ranked 29th in 2015 according to Pro Football Focus. They added talented OT Jack Conklin with their first round pick in 2016, but one tackle cannot change an entire unit.
Mariota certainly has to potential to rise the ranks and be a top-tier quarterback. But there are too many obstacles, weaknesses and red flags for me to get on board…yet.
I would sell high if the price is right or if you can spare the QB depth. But he’s young, a starting quarterback and will be putting up points on game day. I just don’t think he will be putting up top-five numbers anytime soon.
Philip Rivers (QB – SD) – 11th in our Dynasty Rankings
Philip “Bolo Tie” Rivers has always been the fantasy quarterback on the fringe QB1 discussion. Most years he’s drafted in redraft leagues as an option in a QB tandem with the likes of Tony Romo and Eli Manning. Each of these three quarterbacks is in an offense with a stud WR (Keenan Allen, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr.) and struggles or competition in the backfield.
Each of these quarterbacks finished in the top seven at the position: Rivers in 2009, 2010 and 2013, Romo in 2009, 2011 and 2012 and Manning in 2011. But I cannot figure out why Rivers is ranked 11th while Romo and Manning are ranked 24th and 19th, respectively.
Rivers and the Chargers face many of the similar problems that the Titans do. After letting oft-injured Ryan Mathews walk in the 2015 off-season, they drafted stud college back Melvin Gordon. It turns out the problem may not have been the running back, but rather the offensive line.
Gordon continued the trend of San Diego running backs and struggled mightily in his rookie season. In fact, the Chargers had the worst offensive line of 2015. Not only will Rivers continued to get sacked, but as the running game continues to struggle, opponents will focus more on passing.
Speaking of passing, Rivers’ favorite target for a decade now, Antonio Gates, is going to be 36 when the season begins. Seemingly ageless, Gates has continued to be productive. But he has continued to be less of an offensive threat in recent years.
Rivers’ other top receiver, Keenan Allen, is coming off a lacerated kidney. However, he should be good to go for the 2016 season. The Chargers also did little in the 2016 NFL Draft that would point to an increase in offensive production besides add Gates’ potential replacement in Hunter Henry, who won’t be effective for a few years.
Rivers should continue to be a fringe QB1 until he gets too old for the position, like Peyton Manning did this past year, or he retires. However, a 34-year-old, fringe QB1 is not worth a No. 9 dynasty ranking.
I do think Rivers could have a resurgence with Allen back in the lineup. Therefore, if a team were to trade him at peak-value, it could be mid-season 2016.
Matt Ryan (QB – ATL) – ninth in our Dynasty Rankings
Every season Ryan enters the fantasy community with the “upside” tag. It’s been eight seasons now. Ryan’s never had a top-five finish and has averaged a final rank of 10th since his rookie year. With his most recent finish at 19th, there is no reason to believe that Matt Ryan is a QB1 in 2016, or at any point in the future.
Unlike Mariota and Rivers, the Falcons actually had a really good offensive line in 2016, ranking fourth in the league. However, this fantastic performance from the offensive line did not rub off on Ryan as much as it did Devonta Freeman, who had a career year.
But it isn’t all Ryan’s fault. He has no help. His top three targets are stud WR Julio Jones (203 targets), breakout RB Freeman (97) and mediocre TE Jacob Tamme (81).
Now Atlanta did add TE Austin Hooper in the third round of the NFL Draft. He could be the replacement TE that Atlanta has needed since Tony Gonzalez left, but he won’t be ready for a few years. Otherwise, Ryan’s other targets include overpaid wideout Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy, who could make some waves.
Until the Falcons get a legitimate receiving threat other than Jones, Ryan will never live up to the QB1 potential he is frequently said to have. It remains to be seen whether Hooper, Sanu or Hardy can be that difference maker, but don’t count on it. Matt Ryan is overrated across most dynasty rankings and cheat sheets.
Check out my coverage of other positions:
- Dynasty Primer: Under the Radar Quarterbacks
- Dynasty Primer: Under the Radar Running Backs
- Dynasty Primer: Under the Radar Wide Receivers
- Dynasty Primer: Under the Radar Tight Ends
Jeffrey Greco is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Jeffrey, check out his archive and follow him @Jeffrey_Greco.