The Curious Case Of Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton slow start has carried over into 2016

This was the question facing Baseball America last spring as they were finishing their top 100 prospects list. With what has transpired the past 12 months, it’s clear they made the right decision ranking Bryant first and Buxton second. However, it is important to note that just one year ago Buxton was considered the second best prospect in all of baseball. He was ranked ahead of 2015 rookie darlings Carlos Correa, Addison Russell, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Schwarber, and more. So, while what has happened this season and last is certainly concerning, fantasy owners should keep his recent credentials in perspective.

Byron Buxton slow start has carried over into 2016

Kris Bryant or Byron Buxton?

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Thus far this season Buxton is batting .167 with zero home runs, one RBI, one run scored, and one stolen base for the winless Twins, entering play Friday. While it’s just a nine-game sample size, the concerns grow larger when also looking at Buxton’s 2015 performance when he appeared in 46 MLB games with a similarly disappointing stat line. The outfielder hit .209 with just two home runs and two stolen bases.

The problem for Buxton at the major league level has been plate discipline. This season he has struck out in more than half his trips to the plate with 13 strikeouts in 26 plate appearances and not a single walk. In his 46-game sample size last year he whiffed 44 times with just six walks.

It is certainly concerning that Buxton has struck out in nearly 35 percent of his big league plate appearances, but his minor league numbers show reasons for hope. His K% hovered between 19 and 25 percent. Although his major league tenure has been brief, the rising K% could be a sign that Buxton is simply overmatched at this level.

Overall, Buxton’s fantasy value has never been lower than it is today. As unimpressive as the MLB track record has been thus far, Buxton simply has too much talent as a 22-year-old to start giving up on. With the Twins scuffling right now they may even send him back down to the minors to sort things out. While he by no means needs to be owned in standard 10 or 12 team leagues, savvy dynasty owners should look to acquire him at a discount if owners are panicking. Minnesota looks destined for a last-place finish. While they may not be in the news much this summer, Buxton’s continued development will still be a storyline worth tracking.