The Rockies’ new outfielder is still available in some leagues
After having a complete breakout in 2015, A.J. Pollock moved past the popular “sleeper” he was entering the 2015 season and finished in the top-10 in fantasy scoring systems across the board. There were injury concerns from his past but he seemed to put all the worries to rest with his season last year. Pollock was the only player to record at least 20 home runs and 30 or more steals, 39 to be exact. Starling Marte missed by one home run. Pollock finished third in the majors in both runs scored and stolen bases. He slashed .315/.367/.498 without the benefit of an inflated BABIP and was to be a focal point of a strong Diamondbacks offense.
The stars seemed to be in line for Pollock so his average draft position rose as quickly as his fantasy stats from last year. Prior to his injury, Pollock was taken on average 17.4 overall according to the cumulative average draft positions from the Fantasy Pros data. This means Pollock was taken in just about every second round in fantasy drafts this year, even eight-team leagues. There is no replacing a player of this caliber for fantasy. Trying to identify fill-ins will be necessary and depending on league size, some targets have been identified for fantasy players who have lost Pollock for the better part of the season.
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10-Team Leagues
Using the premise of at least 36 outfielders taken in a standard Yahoo draft, this pushes the pool of replacements to the 40th ADP or below. Based on trying to identify players who have a blend of power and speed along with runs scored, here are two players taken between 40-through-50 in Fantasy Pros data who can provide similar statistics to A.J. Pollock and may be on the waiver wire:
Brett Gardner (NYY): 40th OF ECR
Although he has morphed into a first half monster who tails off in the second half, Brett Gardner did provide 16 home runs with 20 stolen bases for the Yankees last year. His average has a drop in comparison to Pollock but this was part of the allure to his draft position. Gardner slashed .259/.343/.399 with 94 runs and 66 RBI. It is a drop off in regards to Pollock, but it is a softer fall than most outfielders provide.
Kevin Pillar (TOR): 46th OF ECR
In case you have missed it, it seems as though Kevin Pillar will open the year as the Blue Jays lead-off hitter. This should grab fantasy fans attention. He will hit ahead of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion if this holds true. Last year Pillar dazzled fans with his tremendous defense but he was better for fantasy than many people realize. Pillar finished 2015 with 76 runs hitting primarily eighth or ninth for Toronto. He also had 12 home runs and 25 stolen bases while hitting .278/.314/.399 for the Blue Jays. His OBP should improve with the move to the top of the lineup and he will see plenty of fastballs ahead of the big bats Toronto possesses. If he an stay atop this lineup, Pillar could easily finish with 100 runs this year and people are not targeting him this season.
Gerardo Parra (COL): 52nd OF ECR
It would seem Gerardo Parra had his breakout in 2015 as well with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases with two teams. Parra signed a contract with Colorado, home of the improved BABIP. Over the last three years Parra has remarkably had the same number of homers and steals in each season with a total of 33 of each with a .270/.320/.408 slash line. This is below his .291/.328/.452 line last season but it does point to a potential regression in his numbers. Parra should score runs and may hit fifth which should increase his RBI output. As long as he gets double digits in both home runs and steals, fantasy owners should be satisfied with his numbers at the end of the year. Just plan on a repeat of last year and not further growth to avoid disappointment.
Ender Inciarte (ATL): 56th OF ECR
Why not take a look at Pollock’s former teammate with Arizona as a potential replacement? Ender Inciarte has hit .292/.329/.386 through his first two seasons in the majors so his average should not be a risk. He does hit for less power but did have six last year along with 45 RBI and 73 runs scored. Inciarte also stole 21 bases in 132 games for the Diamondbacks and will hit lead-off for the Braves and seems to be overlooked in regards to fantasy value. There is a very real chance he gets traded to a contender at mid-season so the Braves can promote speedster Mallex Smith. This would only enhance Inciarte’s value. There is a bit of sacrifice here in power, but the remaining statistics should be repeated with growth in his runs atop the Braves lineup.
12-Team Leagues
Having to dig a bit deeper, outfielders with an ADP of 70th at the position or later drafted were identified as potential replacements to Pollock in regards to his ability to provide help in all five fantasy categories.
Odubel Herrera (PHI): 72nd OF ECR
Odubel Herrera burst onto the scene as a Rule 5 pickup by the Phillies and hit his way into fantasy attention. In 147 games last year, Herrera scored 64 runs with eight home runs, 41 RBI and 16 stolen bases with a .297/.344/.418 slash line. His BABIP was very inflated so planning on some regression in terms of his average should be accounted for. But Herrera may steal more bases and score more runs for the Phillies this year.
Kevin Kiermaier (TB): 78th OF ECR
Some of his value will be tied to where he hits in the lineup, but at some point, Kevin Kiermaier should be able to overtake Logan Morrison for the second spot in the batting order. Kiermaier recorded 10 home runs with 18 stolen bases last year along with 62 runs scored. As we delve deeper, the pickings have more risk, but it is part of the marathon which is fantasy baseball. Kiermaier did hit .263/.298/.420 last season but his spring OBP of .349 hints to his approach improving. This will be necessary for him to take a step forward in fantasy for the 2016 season.
15-Team Leagues
Pickings get a bit more slim, but there is some hope with outfielders having an ADP over 90th at the outfield position highlighted.
Jackie Bradley (BOS): 91st OF ECR
Many are overlooking his strong second half for the Red Sox last year in which Jackie Bradley hit .267/.352/.539 after the All-Star Break. He also had 17 doubles, four triples and nine home runs in 191 at-bats in the second half. He has picked right up where he left off this spring and may be a surprise for fantasy this season as a deep sleeper. His stolen base totals may only be in the low teens, but if he hits 15 home runs with 12 stolen bases, there is value for owners who are desperate for production in deeper formats.
Michael Saunders (TOR): Jays 96th OF ECR
Another Blue Jay could fill-in for Pollock as Michael Saunders has recorded seasons with 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 2012 and had 12 homers with 13 steals in his follow-up in 2013. He has been riddled with injuries ever since, but will be a part of a very deep lineup for Toronto this year. Saunders is worth a look in deep formats and if possible, back him up with Dalton Pompey in case Saunders succumbs to injury once again this year.
Chris Coghlan (OAK): 111th OF ECR
Where do players who are cast off of contenders gravitate to? Why Oakland of course. Add former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan to the list. He will play all over the field for Oakland but has outfield eligibility this year. Coghlan had 16 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 148 games for the Cubs last year with a .250/.341/.443. While he has more value in OBP leagues, Coghlan may stay relevant with the A’s this year.
Tyler Naquin (CLE): 123rd OF ECR
It is all about opportunity and Tyler Naquin may provide a quick fix until a better player is called up or emerges when replacing Pollock. He has a .309/.369/.417 slash line in 525 at-bats in Double-A with six home runs and 22 stolen bases. Since he will open the season in center field for Cleveland Naquin is a player to watch. Naquin hit well this spring and will need to maintain his OBP to gain fantasy notoriety, but the deeper the format, the more relevance he has.
Socrates Brito (ARI): 124th OF ECR
Last but certainly not least is Pollock’s present teammate and heir apparent in center field. Socrates Brito has one of baseball’s best names and scouts have compared his skills to a young Garrett Anderson. High praise indeed. Brito has been profiled here already. With the knowledge the Diamondbacks will have him in center versus right-handed pitchers puts him on the plus side of a platoon and his speed will be in play for Arizona.
This is an imperfect list for an imperfect situation but losing A.J. Pollock does not have to be the death nail for fantasy, just work the wire and target the players with the best chance of coming close his statistics. Fantasy baseball is a marathon, so it is time to put in the work.
Here’s an in-depth breakdown of Pollock’s injury and what to expect of him moving forward
Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.
