Will Colby Rasmus hit 30-plus HRs in 2016?

Every year there are hot starts which fuel the question of whether to buy what the player has shown or to pass due to the looming regression. If one is to add a player in the midst of a hot streak, numerical odds suggest the penultimate movement to the statistical mean will come sooner or later. One of this year’s early movers in regards to value is Colby Rasmus. There has always been talent in the outfielder, but the Cardinals gave up on him due to his unwillingness to be coached and then he did not find success in the hitter’s haven which is the Rogers Centre.

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But after 19 games in 2016, Rasmus is certifiably on fire. He has scored 11 runs with seven home runs (four in the last four games entering play Monday), 18 RBI and a stolen base while hitting .293/.440/.707 for the Astros. He has been one of the highlights in an otherwise disappointing start for Houston this year. Many felt disappointment when Rasmus accepted his qualifying offer from Houston in the off-season as it was going to take away at-bats from power-hitting prospect Preston Tucker.

No one could have predicted what has happened in the first 19 games for Rasmus. He leads the majors with a 21.3 walk percentage, is second in weighted runs created plus at 222, only trailing Manny Machado. Rasmus is third in pull field percentage at 59.5 percent, fourth in weighted on-base average at .473, fourth in home run per fly ball percentage at 36.8 percent and fifth in hard contact (exit velocity over 90 MPH) with a 47.6 percent rate. For a player who has struck out almost once a game, and he is still on pace to do so this year, Rasmus is walking more, hitting the ball harder and over the fence at a higher rate and producing overall.

All of this production comes with a BABIP which is lower than his mark last year. In 2015, Rasmus had a BABIP of .305 and hit .238 for Houston. This year, his BABIP is at .286 and he is hitting .293. Edwin Encarnacion has made a habit of hitting for a higher average than his BABIP due to his home run ability, but this is a first for Rasmus. For his career, Rasmus has a BABIP of .298 with a .245/.316/.447 slash line. His career OPS of .764 is almost equal to his slugging for 2016. So does this mean you should sell Rasmus immediately? Not so fast.

Taking a look at his batted ball data from the last year in comparison to this year along with his career numbers, things are interesting. Here is all the information charted for you:

Something is happening in his approach along with the results. In no way shape or form can Rasmus carry an almost doubled home run per fly ball rate for an entire season. But, with the increased rate of pulling the ball added to his increased hard contact, he is seeing the ball much better and punishing mistakes. This is also seen in his charts from the catcher’s view on BaseballSavant.com.

Rasmus’ trend of seeing the ball better with power results began in earnest last September in which Rasmus hit .289/.385/.614 for Houston with an OPS of 1.000, a .424 wOBA and wRC+ of 173. These are in direct line with his first month this year. Small sample size aside, Rasmus has made an adjustment. It also is reflected in his strikeout and walk percentages.

Last September, Rasmus had a 10.2 BB% with a 29.2 K% to produce the .289 average. It was also his best month for power in 2015 with eight home runs and 15 RBI in 26 games. It’s very similar to his pace to open the season. There are numbers upon numbers to try and differentiate a hot streak from a shift in value. Rasmus is going to test the boundaries this year. He is going to start striking out more, it is just a part of who he is as a hitter. But early on he is swinging at less pitches out of the strike zone and fewer pitches in general.

Could it be a more patient Rasmus with trust in his power could emerge to hit more than 30 home runs this season? It is quite possible. The potential has always been there. Teaching an old dog new tricks is hard to do, but when a player makes an adjustment and can carry it throughout a season is another thing. Rasmus is in the midst of his second straight hot month from September of last year to April of this year. Combined he has hit 15 home runs in 45 games. Even with a drop in his pace and regression in his average towards his career mark of .245, there is still value in a hitter who could hit more than 30 home runs with a .250 average and drive in 85 runs.

Rasmus may be a risky player for fantasy in general, but for this season he could be worth the price of finding out if he’s finally put it all together. He will go through a cold streak but keep an eye on his swinging strike percentage, walk rates and his hard contact rate moving forward. Fantasy owners are allowed to sell as there is always a price on a player, but finding out how the ride will finish will be an interesting case study.As if you need a reason to pull for his power to continue, Rasmus is donating $1,000 dollars to Team Rubicon which pairs veterans with first responders to benefit communities hit by

As if you need a reason to pull for his power to continue, Rasmus is donating $1,000 dollars to Team Rubicon which pairs veterans with first responders to benefit communities hit by disaster. Here is to 35 Colby Jacks this year.

Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.