The science of this injury can be somewhat complicated as the elbow joint is made up of three bones (humerus, ulna, and radius), of which one or all three may be fractured. Beyond this fact, these bones can sustain various types of fractures which all pose different issues. If you really wanted to study all of the different ways the elbow can be fractured, you would appreciate how needing actual X-rays, actual surgical reports, and hands-on assessment would help in giving an accurate assessment on A.J. Pollock’s injury. Now that I have given that disclaimer, I will do what I do best and give you the analysis that you need to understand what Pollock is facing in the coming weeks, months and maybe years.
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Like any other bone in the body, the bones that make up the elbow joint heal in about six-to-eight weeks. The healing time is generally a fixed variable. There are interventions that help speed healing while some people do show the tendency to heal faster. The more important observation from Pollock’s situation is that he requires surgery. The need for surgery tells us that this was not a non-displaced fracture which many times can heal with simple casting and immobilization. Instead, it is likely that Pollock suffered a displaced fracture in which the bone fragments are not lined up and his surgeon will have to do this for him to promote proper healing. Even worse, Pollock may have suffered a comminuted fracture which basically means the bone has broken into little pieces. Think of Pollock’s elbow as a vase that is broken. One clean break of the vase into 2 pieces can be glued back together fairly easily by lining up the edges (simple displaced fracture), while a vase that shatters on the floor is likely to take hours trying to fit each piece in the proper place and then secure it together (comminuted fracture). The process that a surgeon uses to put the vase back together is called Open Reduction Internal Fixation (ORIF).
Keeping with the analogy of the vase, let’s imagine that the same vase had been broken six years ago. Would you even bother trying to put it back together? If you did would you dare put water in it and expect it not to leak out? Those are the questions to ask yourself if you plan on depending on Pollock’s elbow in any way in the future. This is Pollock’s second fracture to this elbow and the previous injury cost him an entire season. Unfortunately, healing is not something we generally get better at in life.
The other concern for me in regard to Pollock’s elbow is that there are reports that his elbow has been sore since early March. When I combine his soreness with the fact that this was not a typical traumatic injury in which direct trauma fractures the elbow, it causes me even more concern. I would feel more confident with the outlook for a person who falls on their elbow and the impact of that fall caused a fractured or shattered the bone, because at least I know that this is an injury that required (an unusual) traumatic impact. In the case of Pollock sliding into home plate, it appears that his elbow fractured merely due to the overpressure transferred to his right arm caused by the force of his slide. His slide was not an unusual nor should it have been a traumatic event, especially if he is not making impact with the catcher. This makes me think that those reported sore ligaments and muscles surrounding his elbow finally said “no mas.” Some people do not respect soreness as much as they should. In some cases, we expect soreness after a big workout or a new activity, but the key is we expect it because we did something to deserve it. Pollock should not expect soreness doing what he intends to do over a 162-game season. Soreness for a baseball player should be taken very serious as soreness means overwork and eventually an overworked ligament, muscle, or joint complex will fail if not properly rested or trained to hold up to its duties.
For the short-term outlook, the fact that he missed more than six months the last time he fractured this elbow is somewhat telling. Still, this does not necessarily represent what should happen this time. Pollock was a young first rounder the first time around, and I’m sure the approach was more conservative to protect that type of talent. Today as a 28-year-old in a game who has seen its average age drop to below 27 years old, there is likely to be a more aggressive approach that gets him back before the season is completed. Assuming that Pollock has some type of Open Reduction Internal Fixation (ORIF) of the bone he fractured, and assuming there will be no significant complications, I would expect Pollock to be back on the field in some capacity by early-to-mid August.
The thing to keep in mind if you plan on investing in his health in any way is to keep your ears open for rehab reports as the true tell of when he returns. This will ultimately depend on his response to rehab and return to baseball -related activities. There are many markers that he will need to hit during the rehab process but ultimately it is about what he will do on the field upon his return. My guess is that this injury does not have much effect on Pollock’s talent and ability to produce on a short-term basis, but in all likelihood his right elbow is in line to require ongoing symptom management and possibly future surgeries that may limit his ability to sustain production.
In regard to an overall outlook for Pollock’s career, I think we will simply have to wait and see. From a fantasy perspective, there are trigger words that help me decide whether his elbow is a vase that is worth saving or whether it’s time to get a new vase. Upon his return, I would listen for reports of things like soreness and inflammation along with reports of shoulder or wrist pain (always look for symptoms in neighboring joints), tendonitis, extra rest days, etc.
When analyzing A.J. Pollock I think it is important to look beyond the fractured bone and look at the elbow joint as a whole. Don’t overlook the fact that Pollock suffered this injury due to over stress to his joint rather than trauma, as this means that not only did he fracture a bone, but he also stressed the ligaments and tendons around that bone to failure prior to the bone being fractured. So while the broken bone steals all the headlines, there is an entire joint that has been injured (for a second time) here. This is the story to follow in order to determine the future production and dependability of A.J. Pollock.
Dr. Eric Petty is a Physical Therapist who is taking his talents from the treatment room to help fantasy owners. You can find more of his work at his site, The Injury Report Doctor, and you can follow him @DrPettyIRD.