March is here and that likely means you’re in full-fledged draft prep mode. Here at FantasyPros, we’re squarely focused on helping to eliminate the “work” involved in getting ready, whether it’s via our free mobile apps or award-winning draft tools. One of these tools is our annual accuracy assessment. And, with plenty of drafts on the horizon, there’s no better time than now to reveal which experts provided the best fantasy rankings last season.
Before we get to the results, here are a few quick notes about the accuracy study:
- In total, draft rankings from 67 fantasy experts were analyzed (a nice, odd number).
- All of the rankings tracked used a standard 5×5 Roto setup.
- The experts were rated Roto-style at each 5×5 category. The scores (PAY™) listed below represent the % of total possible Roto points earned by each expert. A 100% PAY™ would mean the expert ranked best for every 5×5 category (see: full methodology).
Without further ado, here are the experts with the most accurate fantasy baseball rankings.
Expert Accuracy Standings
| Top Fantasy Baseball Experts |
||
| Rank | Expert | PAY™ |
| 1. | Jake Ciely – RotoExperts | 78.2% |
| 2. | Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports | 77.0% |
| 3. | Dalton Del Don – Yahoo! Sports | 74.5% |
| 4. | Dennis Esser – Coach Esser | 73.6% |
| 5. | Tim McCullough – RotoExperts | 71.8% |
| 6. | Ryan Noonan – The Fantasy Fix | 71.0% |
| 7. | Dan Wade – FanGraphs | 69.7% |
| 8. | Alan Harrison – The Fantasy Fix | 67.5% |
| 9. | Andrew Gould – Bleacher Report | 67.3% |
| 10. | Justin Klein – The Fake Baseball | 66.4% |
See the full field of experts (67 total) | Combine top experts into consensus rankings
Congratulations to Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) for outpacing the field as 2015’s most accurate expert. Ciely has consistently proven his mettle in our football accuracy contests so it’s little surprise to see that acumen transfer to the baseball diamond. For his Pitcher predictions, Ciely was one of the experts who touted Jacob DeGrom as a player capable of reaching another tier (discussed here before the season). His rank for DeGrom (SP #15) was 12 spots above the Expert Consensus and proved to be a wise pick as DeGrom morphed into an ace. Ciely was also a believer in Chris Archer (only 7 experts ranked him higher). The Rays’ hurler rewarded that faith by posting the best numbers of his career. Of course, it’s also important to have a good read on players that are poised to disappoint fantasy owners. Ciely was notably down on several pitchers that fit this bill: Jeff Samardzija (-7 rank spots vs. Consensus), Doug Fister (-15 rank spots vs. Consensus), Neftali Feliz (-10 rank spots vs. Consensus), and Julio Teheran (-4 rank spots vs. Consensus).
As for his Hitter rankings, Ciely gets credit for slotting a couple of breakthrough studs for the Red Sox ahead of the popular opinion: Xander Bogaerts (+5 rank spots vs. Consensus) and Mookie Betts (+4 rank spots vs. Consensus). He was also higher than all but 1 expert on Ryan Braun (his OF #7). The Brewers’ slugger bounced back from a sub-par 2014 campaign to post top 10 OF numbers once again. And as far as identifying potential disappointments, Ciely was ahead of the curve with his ranks for both Evan Longoria (-5 rank spots vs. Consensus) and Hunter Pence (-13 rank spots vs. Consensus).
Kudos are also in store for Brandon Funston (Yahoo! Sports). Funston’s 2nd place performance marks the 4th time in the past 5 years that he’s landed in the top 10 of our accuracy standings. No other expert can make that claim. Funston best picks in 2015 included ranking A.J. Pollock 19 spots above the Expert Consensus (his OF #27), slotting Francisco Lindor 17 spots ahead of the Consensus (only 1 expert was higher), downgrading James Shields (-10 spots below Consensus), and having the highest ranks of all experts tracked for both Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts.
Surprise Players
As always, there were plenty of players that performed above expectations last season. The difference between drafting or passing on these players could have impacted any team’s fantasy fortunes. Below are the experts that had the best read on each player (they had him ranked higher than anyone else). Our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are included in the table to show just how far out on a limb each pundit went with their ranking.
*Ranks are at the position level
Busts
On the flip side, here are the notable disappointments from 2015 along with the experts that went against popular opinion with their rankings.
| Player | Position | Top Expert | Rank* | ECR |
| Victor Martinez | 1B | Andrea LaMont – RotoExperts | 21 | 12 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | Muntradamus – Beast Dome | 33 | 21 |
| Anthony Rendon | 2B | Muntradamus – Beast Dome | 10 | 3 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 2B | Dave McKay – The Fantasy Sports Brain | 15 | 8 |
| Ian Desmond | SS | Muntradamus – Beast Dome | 5 | 2 |
| David Wright | 3B | Ryan Rufe – RotoBaller | 18 | 11 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 3B | Al Melchior – CBS Sports | 22 | 12 |
| Carlos Gomez | OF | Brent Namejko – Fantasy Smack Talk | 7 | 4 |
| Yasiel Puig | OF | Tom Schriner – FFLockerRoom | 16 | 7 |
| Marcell Ozuna | OF | Scott White – CBS Sports | 46 | 32 |
| Felix Hernandez | SP | Dalton Del Don – Yahoo! Sports | 5 | 2 |
| Stephen Strasburg | SP | Ryan Fowler – Fox Sports | 13 | 6 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | SP | Doug Anderson – FNTSY | 19 | 11 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SP | Ryan Noonan – The Fantasy Fix | 32 | 16 |
| Julio Teheran | SP | KJ – Fantasy Team Advice | 37 | 17 |
| James Shields | SP | Grey Albright – Razzball | 39 | 18 |
| Doug Fister | SP | Greg Smith – The Fake Baseball | 82 | 35 |
| Steve Cishek | RP | Doug Anderson – FNTSY | 27 | 10 |
| Neftali Feliz |
RP
|
Brett Talley – The Fantasy Fix | 43 | 27 |
*Ranks are at the position level
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That wraps up our analysis of 2015’s expert draft rankings. Congratulations again to Jake Ciely and the rest of the top experts!
Lastly, be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook to stay on top of our latest updates and advice. We have plenty in store leading up to and during the baseball season. Stay tuned!
