Kyle Schwarber’s power may be attractive, but he’s a risky pick due to other factors
It doesn’t feel like it was that long ago when the Royals sent the Mets home in a 4-1 World Series win, but baseball is officially back in the air with the very first wave of players beginning to report to Spring Training later this week. What does that mean for you? It’s time to start looking into draft preparation and we’re here to help.
We invited our featured experts below to name who they feel are currently overvalued according to our ADP Composite. If you haven’t started running mock drafts, test out your strategy by avoiding the names below and see how your team rounds out.
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Q1. Using our ADP Composite, what Hitter is currently the most overvalued in fantasy drafts?
Kyle Schwarber (C,LF – CHC)
Overall ADP: #41
“Schwarber has immense power and he won’t catch much, but he’s going too early. In 232 at-bats, Schwarber batted .246 with 52 runs, 16 home runs, 43 RBI and a .842 OPS. Schwarber had a 28.2 percent strikeout rate and struggled in the minors to make contact. In 56 at-bats, Schwarber hit .143 against left-handers with a .481 OPS. This could cause him to sit against some left-handers and his outfield defense isn’t good, so he could be replaced defensively late in games.”
– Adam Ronis (RotoExperts)
Lorenzo Cain (CF, KC)
Overall ADP: #49
“Though I like Cain, he was a much better play as a sleeper last year. Cain is being drafted ahead of Adam Jones, Justin Upton, Robinson Cano, Carlos Gomez, and plenty of other hitters with more upside and at more helpful positions. Brett Gardner at 134 offers many of the same traits as Cain, or if you want to go even deeper, I’d rather take a shot at Stephen Piscotty at 222. Cain is a nice player, but if one aspect of his game is off, he becomes a very limited player. He’s also had issues with injuries during his short career.”
– Doug Anderson (FNTSY)
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS)
Overall ADP: #70
“Bogaerts is my most overvalued player. Do yourself a favor and stack Boegarts’ numbers next to Asdrubal Cabrera’s numbers. You know what you’ll see. They’re pretty much the same player minus .40 points in batting average. Boegarts is going in round 5 and Cabrera 220 picks later.”
– Dr. Roto (ScoutFantasy)
Q2. Using our ADP Composite, what Pitcher is currently the most overvalued in fantasy drafts?
Zack Greinke (SP – ARI)
Overall ADP: #26
“Greinke is coming off a 19-3 record, 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Clearly, that won’t repeat. Greinke had a .229 BABIP, which is below his career mark of .298, and an 86.5 percent strand rate, while his career average is 74.9 percent. He limits the walks and has never allowed many home runs. Greinke hasn’t allowed more than 20 home runs in a season since 2009. Now he moves to a tougher park in Arizona and while he will be good, he’s not a top-6 pitcher.”
– Adam Ronis (RotoExperts)
Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY)
Overall ADP: #105
“Forget for a moment that the elbow of Masahiro Tanaka is dangling by a thread. Even if he manages to stay healthy and replicate his 2015 numbers, there’s not all that much to like. In a 12-team mixed-league, his 3.51 ERA could actually hurt your team. His strikeout rate is also a detriment. You’re paying for a chance at 15 wins, with little else that will stand out. Then there’s the question of if his elbow hangs on. For my fantasy dollar, I’d rather have Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, or Shelby Miller; all of who are going after Tanaka. Going a little deeper, I’d rather take a shot at Drew Smyly at 172 or Patrick Corbin at 182. If we’re honestly looking at stats, Tanaka should probably be an end-game starter along the lines of a Mike Fiers. He’s still living off the mystique of his Japan career, but that doesn’t help us in fantasy.”
– Doug Anderson (FNTSY)
Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA)
Overall ADP: #42
“Someone in your league is going to take Felix Hernandez off the board as a top ten pitcher this year. Don’t let that be you. Hernandez has thrown over 2,250 IP in his career and his K totals are dropping fast. His bubble may burst sooner rather than later.”
– Dr. Roto (ScoutFantasy)
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Thank you to the experts for naming who they feel are undervalued. Be sure to follow them on Twitter for more advice.
