Now is the time to sell Dwight Howard

Now 11 weeks into the NBA season, things should be settling down for fantasy owners. Every season player projections are made, and invariably, some are pretty far off, causing ripples that can be seen through the waiver wire for months. Eventually, however, they fade away, and we’re left with a more concrete understanding of where things might be headed. Trades (in real life) and injuries will always keep the waiver wire relevant, but the further we get into the season, the more valuable trading will become in terms of bettering your fantasy team. By proposing trades, you allow yourself to go after exactly what you need rather than having to make do with what the wire currently offers, thereby increasing your odds of success. So go ahead, propose that trade, but first check out these suggestions that might help you get started.

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BUY

Stephen Curry – PG – Golden State Warriors
We’ll just start things off with the No. 1 fantasy player in the NBA and suggest that now is a good time to buy low on Stephen Curry. Waiting for Curry’s stock to drop seems like a fruitless endeavor at first. In all but one of his seven seasons, Curry has improved his scoring, and with it his three-point shooting, from the previous season. He’s currently averaging 29.3 points on the season, bettering last year by nearly six points, and is also putting up career numbers (or close to it) in steals, three-pointers, rebounds and all three shooting percentages. In other words, Curry has been on fire, even for his standards. So, with that being said, how is it possible that he’s a good buy candidate? Really, it shouldn’t be possible, that is if the Curry owner in your league has any sense at all. However, as most of us well know, there are often one or two owners per league that seem quite foreign to the concept of common sense, and if one of them owns Curry in your league, now is a great time to make the move. He’s run into some lingering injury issues as of late, sustaining a shin contusion that’s already held him out of two games and, after returning and re-aggravating it, it caused him to see limited minutes in two of his last three games. The deal here is that Curry had essentially raised expectations to such astronomical levels that any kind of setback was likely to become amplified by popular opinion, thereby making those senseless owners a bit anxious. Nagging injuries are always a little scary in the fantasy world because of the unknowns they carry with them, and that could very well be the case with Curry. Of course, no one should be even close to hitting the panic button, but there are always those that do, and it may not be too hard to swipe Curry from them at a discounted rate. Sure, you’ll still have to give up your top talent, but as long as you don’t go overboard on your proposal, there’s no reason not to try.

Andrew Wiggins – SG/SF – Minnesota Timberwolves
Wiggins is a scorer, and that’s about it. He isn’t really going to produce in any other category, and that includes threes and both shooting percentages (FG and FT). But, in the fantasy world, scoring is often enough, and that’s how it is for Wiggins. The second-year star is currently averaging 20.4 points in 34.8 minutes this season, which is 3.5 points more in 1.4 fewer minutes than his rookie year. He’s already shown great improvement and is more than likely not done yet – a fact that, in itself, makes Wiggins a nice player to target, especially in keeper formats. However, over his last few games, Wiggins has seen somewhat of a drop in his production due to both less playing time and poor shooting. If you currently own the young Timberwolf, there’s nothing to worry about at all, but if you don’t, and would like to, it’s not a bad time to make a go. There really isn’t much analysis needed when it comes to single category players like Wiggins, so let’s make this story short before it gets any ideas. If you need scoring, shoot for Wiggins and play on the fact that the struggles of specialists always seem amplified as they’re forced to play an all-or-nothing kind of game.

HOLD

Zach Lavine – PG/SG – Minnesota Timberwolves
Lavine has some freakish abilities, a statement that after last year’s slam dunk competition no one will argue with, but those gifts don’t always translate to success on the court. He did start the season off right, averaging 15.3 points in just 26 minutes in November, but since then he’s seen a steady decline in production to where he is now – averaging just 4.5 points in 18.6 minutes over his last five games. To state the obvious, those numbers are bad, but for a scorer they’re practically useless. Lavine has recently been moved from backup point guard to backup shooting guard, and it’s taking some time for him to regain useful playing time, but things should improve. He may not make his way into the starting lineup anytime soon, but as the Timberwolves continue to phase Kevin Martin out of any meaningful role, Lavine should see more time. For a shooter, that’s all that really matters. More minutes usually lead to more shot attempts, and more attempts usually lead to more points…usually. So, while the time to drop Lavine may be nearing, it’s still best to hold out a little while longer, if you can.

Michael Carter-Williams – PG – Milwaukee Bucks
Carter-Williams can be a bit of a headache as someone with such potential. Averaging 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists over his career, Carter-Williams is a constant triple-double threat. However, he’s yet to record one this season and has only put up three double-doubles in the same time. It’s been a disappointing season for the fourth-year pro so far, as he’s managed very little consistency. He has managed to compile a few hot streaks here and there, and it’s because of those streaks that Carter-Williams finds himself as one of our top hold candidates. He seems to be on the verge of one of those hot streaks, and with Jerryd Bayless possibly looking at missing extended time due to injury, he may not have to worry about any competition for minutes anytime soon. If you enjoy headaches, by all means, feel free to hold onto Carter-Williams til the end. If you happen to prefer stability, wait at least another week, and if he’s still recording good numbers, put him on the block.

SELL

Dwight Howard – C – Houston Rockets
Howard is currently on fire. Over hist last four games, the big man is averaging 22.3 points and 13.5 rebounds in 37.8 minutes. Those numbers are good enough to make up for Howard’s awful game from the line and still make him a top-25 fantasy value in category leagues and an easy top-50 in points leagues. However, it is important to remember who we’re talking about here. Howard is notorious for his injury issues, and while he has yet to miss back-to-back contests this season, he has missed six games for differing reasons. There’s simply no reason to believe that those injuries, and their lasting effects, will just magically go away. Actually, because of how many minutes he’s racked up over the past week, the Rockets may look to rest their center before it becomes too much in too little time. Even if he manages to avoid serious injury for the rest of the season, Howard’s going to miss games periodically due to rest, and the Rockets have not been friendly to fantasy owners this season in general. On top of that, part of Howard’s recent success is due to the fact that Terrence Jones and Clint Capella have been struggling, thereby handing over more time to Howard. Obviously, that’s been good for Howard, but in the future, it means that his success will depend that much more on factors that are out of his control, making his continued success less likely. Take advantage of what he’s currently giving you sell high on Howard before it’s too late.

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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.