Clay Matthews and the Packers D/ST have a tasty Week 14 matchup

Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for four straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.

Fantasy football is an awesome game. Twelve weeks of drafting, starting, sitting, adding, and dropping all culminated in a single game. My Week 13 matchup’s winner would make the playoffs, while the loser would get nothing. Hours of blood, sweat, and tears (OK, hopefully no blood) would either be for naught or for everything. Thursday came and went, and my opponent had gotten off to a poor start. I tried not to get ahead of myself, but it felt like this one would be in the bag.

Going into Sunday Night Football, I held a healthy lead. After all, shouldn’t 53 points be enough of a cushion? My opponent had Frank Gore and Antonio Brown, but I felt good enough about this one that I didn’t even check the scoring for the first three quarters. I knew I had a buffer. I knew I had the odds in my favor. So, I did what every proud American should do, and I rooted for the Colts and Steelers both to lose the game.

Fantasy football is a stressful game. Antonio Brown caught his second touchdown just as the fourth quarter was starting. I felt a nervous twitch and grabbed my phone, checked my fantasy score, and realized that things were much too close for comfort. Still, though, I had a buffer. Surely, the Colts would take Frank Gore off the field soon, right? And the Steelers would stop passing the ball, right?

But then it actually started happening! Time was winding down. Four minutes left. I was still up by three. The Colts had the ball down big, and Frank Gore had just come off the field. Matt Hasselbeck got replaced by Charlie Whitehurst. The two of them were shown chatting on the sidelines, clearly done for the game, and Boom Herron was in the game for the hurry up offense! All I needed was for the Colts to gain a first down or two and the game would be over.

But they didn’t. Colts punter Pat McAfee launched a short punt to the Pittsburgh 29 yard line, fielded by none other than Antonio Brown.

Fantasy football is a stupid game. It was clearly a touchdown by the time he crossed midfield. The Colts were all out of position, Brown had himself a convoy, and my fantasy season was officially over. I went from winner to loser in less than 10 seconds, and my three-month journey was over. The incredible confluence of events – the Colts needed to get stopped on third down, the Steelers original punt returner had to get benched after a fumble earlier in the game, the Steelers had to leave Antonio Brown in the game, Brown had to take it to the house, and all of this would have to be after near season-best fantasy games by both Gore and Brown – all came true.

Fantasy football is just a game. The sheer time investment in a fantasy football season makes it seem like so much more, but it’s still just a game. It’s easy to get over a losing hand of poker. After all, you might invest three minutes of your life into a hand, and even if you improbably lose a sizeable sum of money, in the end, it’s still just three minutes. A fantasy season is three months. Every decision, every outcome, every game is stretched over the course of hours, days, or weeks. To see them all come crashing down at once is frustrating, but it’s still just one season, not unlike one single hand of poker.

Remember, your equity in a 12-team league when you sat down to draft was just 8%, so can we really be all that surprised when we lose?

Week 13 D/ST averages by tier

1 & 1.5: 11.2
2 & 2.5: 9.5
3 & 3.5: 9.9

The average D/ST scored very well this week. Boosted in large part by Philadelphia’s three D/ST TDs, the overall average was 9.5. The other 31 teams averaged 8.9 points, which is still higher than we’ve been used to!

The Kansas City Chiefs locked themselves in as the playoff stud defense, the Denver Broncos returned to form, and the New England Patriots uncharacteristically allowed three D/ST TDs to the Eagles in a humiliating loss. Most teams played like we thought they should – the only true stinkers in MFL scoring was third-tier Houston, who scored -2 points. St. Louis scored 3 and Carolina, Buffalo, and Jacksonville each scored 5, but for the most part every other choice was respectable. It took a late D/ST TD to salvage some of them (I’m looking at you Tennessee and Minnesota), but sometimes that’s just how things go.

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Week 14 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected value – tier)

1. Kansas City Chiefs – 10.7 – 1
2. New York Jets – 10.6 – 1
3. Carolina Panthers – 10.5 – 1
4. St. Louis Rams – 10.2 – 1.5
5. Seattle Seahawks – 10.2 – 1.5
6. Denver Broncos – 10.2 – 1.5
7. Arizona Cardinals – 10.0 – 1.5
8. Green Bay Packers – 9.5 – 2
9. New England Patriots – 9.3 – 2
10. Cleveland Browns – 8.9 – 2.5
11. Philadelphia Eagles – 8.7 – 2.5
12. Indianapolis Colts – 8.5 – 3
13. New York Giants – 8.4 – 3
14. Cincinnati Bengals – 8.2 – 3
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.2 – 3
16. Detroit Lions – 8.0 – 3.5

Also on tier 3.5 are Jacksonville (8.0) and San Francisco (7.9).

Tier 1: Kansas City, NY Jets, Carolina

What is there to say about Kansas City that hasn’t been said before? How about this; they destroyed a horrible matchup on Sunday to erase any doubt in my mind that they are the premium playoff D/ST. For the rest of the season, they get three juicy matchups; at home vs San Diego, then on the road at Baltimore, and finally at home vs Cleveland. They played like a team possessed, even without Justin Houston. Even without their pick-6, they would have scored big on the day, and their rest of season schedule somehow got even better. Johnny Manziel is locked in as the Cleveland starter for week 16, and Matt Schaub nearly left Sunday’s game for Jimmy Clausen.

Sign. Me. Up. The Chiefs are getting sacks, they’re getting turnovers, they’ve kept opponent scoring down, and they’ve got dream matchups…If you still have any hesitation for starting them, then there’s nothing anybody can say or do to convince you.

The Jets, meanwhile, have been very up and down. On the season, they’ve been mostly down, but aside from two bad matchups against the Patriots and Raiders, they’ve been one of the season’s best units for fantasy. This week they get one of the premium matchups, the Tennessee Titans, and they’re going to be playing at home. That alone should be enough to sell you. This is their opportunity to show you why you’ve held onto them all year, even if you’ve been disappointed by their overall 14th highest scoring on the season.

We should be used to seeing the Panthers top the rankings here by now. They check all of the usual boxes for D/ST scoring.

1. They’ve got a defense that’s good at keeping the score down
2. They’ve got a good enough offense to be favored on a regular basis
3. Their pass rush leads to a lot of sacks, and their secondary has created a lot of turnovers

They weathered what we thought was a bad stretch of matchups after their bye to a league-average score, which was impressive in its own right. They’ve come out of that stretch with four games averaging more than 14 points per game, and that includes last week’s disappointment in New Orleans. This week, they get one of the league’s most overrated teams (the Falcons), and they get to play them in Carolina. This should be a bloodbath. The Panthers clinched the division on Sunday, but I would not expect them to take their foot off the gas, especially against a divisional rival.

Tier 1.5: St. Louis, Seattle, Denver, Arizona

Along with KCC, NYJ, and CAR, these four defenses make up (most) of the rest of the units I’ve recommended for playoff stashing/positioning over the last few weeks. The other two – Cincinnati and New England – show up disadvantaged this weekend, but their time will come. All four of the Western division defenses are strong enough that you really can’t go wrong with any of them.

Denver is the premier choice among them, simply due to their season’s body of work. The matchup isn’t necessarily good, but they’re at home and they destroyed the Raiders to the tune of 20 D/ST points last time in Oakland. If the Raiders had kept KC in check last weekend, and/or the Broncos had struggled, I would feel less sure of their position here. But with recent developments, Broncos owners can breathe a sigh of relief and start them with confidence.

Sadly, none of these four teams are going to be unowned in anybody’s leagues, so the coverage on each will be brief. Simply put, unless you have a tier-1 option, you’re starting any of these if you have them. It’s playoff time, so don’t get cute. The Rams are the one that might give pause, but they’re at home and in a decent, high-upside matchup against the Lions. The other NFC West vs NFC North matchup is similar, but the Seahawks just presented a blueprint for how Minnesota can concede a stud D/ST score, and I would look for similar results from Arizona (but with tempered expectations, obviously).

If I had to rank these four relative to each other, I would be starting Denver over Seattle over Arizona over St. Louis.

Tier 2: Green Bay and New England

Ranked 16th and 17th in yearly scoring, both the Packers and the Patriots have had very similar seasons in aggregate. Both are dealing with injuries that have stunted their great-on-paper offenses, and both D/STs have struggled of late. Between the two, they have just one score of 10+ points in the last five weeks, and just two such scores in the last eight weeks. I’m happy, albeit nervous, to go back to the well with each.

It’s been clear for weeks that New England profiles as a high-risk/high-reward D/ST most weeks. They come into each game favored by a truckload of points, and this presents a low Vegas total for their opponent. They force their opponents into high volume passing situations (by going up on the scoreboard early and often). They have some very decent players on defense and a very well-coached special teams unit.

Where have they gone wrong, then? For one, garbage time has been very cruel to them in general. Remember, although “garbage time” gets mythical treatment in the fantasy community, it’s nothing to be scared of with a D/ST, and it’s certainly nothing to chase for position players. However, it does present those risk/reward scenarios that plagued the Patriots’ defense. They’re part of the reason why they’ve notched 36 sacks, but the New England secondary has not capitalized by way of turnovers, and they haven’t scored a single D/ST TD on the season. I suspect both numbers would regress over time and are making the Patriots look worse than they really are.

However, I would start the Packers over the Cowboys, because Dallas has simply been that bad. Don’t let the Monday Night Football finish erase the memory of 58 horrible minutes of offense by the Cowboys. They’ve been the second-best matchup to opposing D/STs on the season, and as long as Matt Cassel is the quarterback, that should continue. I would start the Packers over the Patriots, and I would probably consider Green Bay in the mix with Arizona and St. Louis in the tier above.

Tier 2.5: Cleveland and Philadelphia

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t even want to talk about Cleveland. For a two-win football team, they get a disproportionate amount of love, hate, coverage, and denial. They’re eliminated, they’re starting a frustrating young quarterback, and I would not feel good about starting their D/ST. If you’re desperate, they’re worth a look, but Blaine Gabbert has somehow looked respectable. Since he took over for the 49ers, San Francisco has only been the 21st best matchup for opposing D/STs, and Cleveland is not nearly good enough to take advantage. I don’t think the 49ers are anything to be afraid of, but I would need something better than the 31st best D/ST to fade them. Start the Browns at your own risk, because I would not start them with mine.

The Eagles defense is pretty easy to like after their three TD performance. They’ve been a high-upside play all year long, and were similar last year as well, although I still think they’re playing over their heads. Don’t let one great game against a good team fool you into starting them over a legitimately good team this weekend. I would also stay away from the Eagles if possible, but I like them more than Cleveland.

Tier 3 and Below

Detroit – “I really like the Lions this week,” said no one outside of Detroit, ever. Except this time I really do. They get a decent matchup against a team that’s really struggling to find their offensive rhythm, albeit on the road. If I were looking for a D/ST for the playoffs and had whiffed on all the truly desirable options, the Lions is where I would settle. Not only do they have a decent matchup this week, but they have another decent one in Week 16 at home against the 49ers. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Cincinnati – I would gladly start the Bengals over many of the undesirable teams on their same tier or slightly above. I hate the matchup, but at least they’re at home and have been playing well. I would take them over Cleveland, and quite possibly Philadelphia as well.

Jacksonville/Indianapolis – I’d take the Jaguars here if forced, but I’m not a fan of either play if they can be avoided. Neither D/ST is very good, and the road team here is the worse fade. If this game were in Indiana, it would be easier to like the Colts, but as it stands I hate both options roughly equally.

San Francisco – just don’t.

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For those of you still alive in your leagues, I wish you the best of luck. Your opponents are better, the stakes are higher, and you’ll need all the luck you can get. As always, thank you for reading!