Even in a favorable matchup, can you trust the Saints’ D/ST?
Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for four straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.
Remember those TV puzzle games where there would be a scrambled image, and every few seconds it would get a little clearer? The NFL season is a little like that, where every single week gives us another data point. Our sport isn’t like baseball where we have hundreds of at-bats against dozens of pitchers to unscramble our image. Instead, we have 16 games, and while every game has hundreds of snaps on both offense and defense (split between ~100 players), they’re a lot harder to sort through than baseball or basketball.
So, we do the best we can. Sometimes, a team can fool us for weeks at a time before we give them their due credit. Sometimes, a player like Todd Gurley comes along and entirely changes the character of an offense midseason. And sometimes, a player like Andrew Luck can make us question the very foundations of our preseason expectations.
Anybody who tells you they have all the answers is lying. Conversely, anybody who tells you “it’s all dumb luck” isn’t being entirely honest either. Between regressed year-to-date performance and Vegas numbers, we can get a pretty good idea of what to expect, especially if we block out the media narratives that pervade most football analyses. Long-time readers of Defense Wins Championships are very familiar with that notion, but for those aren’t, here’s a non-comprehensive list of things we entirely ignore when it comes to D/ST scoring (and all fantasy, really):
- How “angry” a player is
- How “hungry” a player is
- How motivated a player is
- How unmotivated a player is
- What a player had for lunch
- How many players’ family members will be in attendance
- Whether it’s a contract year or not
- Whether it’s a player’s birthday or not
- Etc.
Seems simple, right? Now check out some mainstream fantasy football analyses (don’t worry, we’ll still be here for you when you finish vomiting). Count the number of times you read “must-win game” or how hungry/angry/pissed/lazy a player is. It’s fascinating biographical information for a compelling story, but unfortunately, we’re not playing Fantasy Narratives. Instead, we work with two very simple axioms:
- Professional athletes are always motivated to play well, and even if not
- NFL football players’ past stats are relatively predictive for future performances.
Period!
Jumping back into Week 8, it was a pretty good week for D/STs. Unfortunately, some of the top-scoring units were ones that were hard to justify starting. Houston, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh were all top 8 in MFL standard scoring. However, that’s something that should come as no surprise by now, since D/STs have such a high variance week-to-week.
There were a fair number of predictable names at the top of the scoring list, as well. New England, Kansas City, St. Louis, Carolina, Denver, and Arizona all scored above average, and some of them were much better than that. The Broncos showed themselves to be in the mix with the best defenses of the last 20 years, the Colts showed themselves to be a profitable fade going forward until they right their own ship, and the rest of these teams should be no surprise by now.
Seattle, ranked 9th in our column last week – and much higher across most of the rest of the fantasy football industry – scored just 5 points. The Jets, ranked 14th by me, scored a last-place score of -3.
On the other end of the spectrum, we had Oakland ranked in the top 12, and they finished a respectable 13th. It wasn’t all good though. By the results we also vastly overrated the Green Bay Packers compared to consensus. They finished with a disappointing 3 points.
Averages by Tier
1 & 1.5: 8.8
2 & 2.5: 10.8
3 & 3.5: 8
The average D/ST scored 7.4 points in Week 8, which is about a full point lower than normal.
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Week 9 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected score – tier)
- Denver Broncos – 12.5 – 1
- Cincinnati Bengals – 11.5 – 1
- New York Jets – 10.8 – 1.5
- New England Patriots – 10.8 – 1.5
- New Orleans Saints – 10.5 – 1.5
- St. Louis Rams – 10.2 – 2
- Atlanta Falcons – 10.1 – 2
- Philadelphia Eagles – 10.0 – 2
- Buffalo Bills – 9.6 – 2.5
- New York Giants – 9.5 – 2.5
- Green Bay Packers – 9.4 – 2.5
- Minnesota Vikings – 8.8 – 3
- Carolina Panthers – 8.7 – 3
- Jacksonville Jaguars – 8.5 – 3
- Miami Dolphins – 7.5 – 4
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 7.5 – 4
On bye this week; Seattle, Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, and Detroit. With so many teams on bye this week, everybody is going to be in a different situation with regard to their roster and their benches. Many people are not going to be able to justify keeping a strong D/ST like Seattle or Arizona. However, in the event that you have the space, both make fine stashes – just do not feel too much regret if you’re forced to ditch them. Otherwise, KC, Houston, Baltimore, and Detroit are all easily droppable.
Tier 1: Denver, Cincinnati
My favorite stat of the weekend; Denver held Aaron Rodgers to fewer passing yards (77) than Alex Smith had rushing yards (78). While Denver’s final D/ST score wasn’t league-leading, it was still above average against one of the best offenses in the NFL, and they more than justified a start. Past their bye week and with the Colts looking like a different team from last season, the Broncos are easily worth a start in every single one of their remaining games until they give us a reason to think otherwise.
They’re simply the most complete defense in the NFL; great coverage in the secondary, a very solid pass rush, and very good linebackers all around. Literally the only thing holding them back is Peyton Manning and his recent tendency to provide short fields to the opposition, but they’ve hid that from a fantasy standpoint with their D/ST TDs. That obviously won’t continue at the same pace going forward, but at the same time, Manning probably isn’t as bad as he was earlier this year. If you drafted Denver or streamed them early, you can probably check yourself out of this column from here on out. Congrats, you won the D/ST game this year.
Cincinnati, for their part, have been more miss than hit in 2015. That shouldn’t be a huge surprise to most of us, but they’ve skirted by on “name brand” for the last couple of seasons. However, here they have a deceptively good matchup against the Browns, albeit with a low floor. Teams like the Browns – high-volume passing with low efficiency and prone to turnovers – are great to face with a D/ST. While the high volume nature lowers the Bengals’ scoring floor, it also provides more drop backs for Josh McCown, and thus more opportunity for sacks and turnovers. I would start the Bengals with confidence this week.
Tier 1.5: New York Jets, New England, New Orleans
Out with the old, in with the new!
The Jets should be obvious. They’re one of the league’s best defenses, and even with their QB uncertainty going forward, are a great play weekly. Their top-tier D/ST scoring has fallen off since Week 6, until you consider that Week 7 was against the Patriots and Week 8 was a mediocre matchup that snowballed badly by the end of the game. They’re still very good, and the Jaguars are still a solid fade. They’re not as bad as they were in 2014, but they’re bad enough. If you held the Jets through their bye and/or their Patriots’ game, this is the first of 3-6 games – v JAX, v BUF, @ HOU, v MIA, @ NYG, and v TEN – where they should be a great start in each week.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are always a strong start by our algorithm’s rules. First, they’ve got an awesome offense, which puts their opponents into high-volume passing situations (see above with Cincinnati). They also have a decent defense in its own right, snagging eight interceptions in seven games and 26 sacks to boot. They’re the quintessential “low-floor, high-ceiling, high-variance” play in most weeks, especially when they’re at home, and this week they get an exploitable Redskins’ matchup with Captain Kirk at the helm. Captain Kirk historically got his way by the end of the episode, but it wasn’t always without the loss of a redshirt or three. Real-world Kirk is significantly worse than Sci-Fi Kirk, although the notion of William Shatner playing QB for the Redskins would make for quite the entertaining game.
And then, we have the Saints. They rate in tier 1.5, but I would personally not be starting them over some of the tier 2/2.5 teams (most notably St. Louis or Atlanta). Even though the matchup is relatively good and the Saints are at home, they’re simply not a very good defense. Two of their last three weeks have been good, but they’re the only two weeks the Saints have had above-average, and that’s not a path to excellence. We may get more clarity on this one as the week progresses since Mariota is still questionable to play.
Tier 2: St. Louis, Atlanta, Philadelphia
The Rams rate somewhat poorly by the algorithm, but I would personally put them with the tier 1.5 teams. If you have them, you’re starting them, and you should feel pretty good about it. While the Rams are on the road, and the Vikings aren’t the greatest fade, they still match up pretty well against the Vikings’ main strengths, and their D/ST is very good in the abstract. It’s a strange season when we’re a little more concerned by a rookie Viking WR than Adrian Peterson, but that’s the world we’re living in.
The Falcons are going to surprise a lot of people ranked this low, but if we’re being honest, it’s not low. They should probably be in tier 1.5 along with St. Louis, and it’s possible that I am underestimating how bad Blaine Gabbert will be with the 49ers. However, the Falcons’ record belies how mediocre they really are right now. Football Outsiders’ DVOA has them as the 17th best team coming into Week 8, with the 17th best defense. That’s not the kind of team to instill confidence in a D/ST, but the matchup is too good to ignore. As someone who has been forced to start the Falcons in a couple of spots the last two weeks, this matchup is a welcome sight.
Philadelphia was dropped (rightfully) in a number of leagues last week for their bye, and it’s a shame they rate so well this week. However, if their projection is to be trusted, they’re barely two points better than average this week. Is that worth losing a bench spot for a week? Maybe, maybe not. I would lean toward “no” on that one. This ranking should be no surprise though. The Cowboys are still a good fade with Cassel under center, but as they showed last week against a strong Seahawks’ defense, playing in Dallas makes capitalizing on that a lot harder, especially if they can take the lead and grind out the clock on the ground.
Tier 2.5 and below, teams of note: Buffalo, Green Bay, Carolina
The Bills have been one of the most disappointing D/STs of the year. I don’t expect that to change anytime soon, but at the same time, they get Dolphins and Jets over the next two weeks. That’s good enough to take a flier over some of the other middling teams here.
The Packers had a disappointing loss last week. They’re still a good defense and should have a better time of things against a pretty mediocre offense. Going back to DVOA, the Panthers were 9th coming into the week, and Cam Newton has been much worse than his MVP-chanting backers would like to admit.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are a curious study. Back in Weeks 1-4, I advocated starting them at a much higher rate than others in the fantasy industry. Then, during their Week 5 bye, I advocated dropping them in most cases. Both recommendations were met with much resistance, and here we have a mediocre/bad matchup against the Packers. Without taking their bye into account, their scores of 5, 11, and 11 average out to 9 points per game. The average D/ST over those three weeks scored 8.5 points.
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Hmm. Does dropping them back in week 5 seem so crazy now? One more data point in a long list of examples pointing toward “trust the process” as the most important piece of Fantasy Football strategy you can ascribe to, provided you have a good process to work with.
As always, best of luck in Week 9!
