Defense Wins Championships (Week 2)

It was 11:15 on Sunday morning, and I had just seen that Mike Evans would likely be ruled out for his game against the Titans. Since I wouldn’t have any more Internet access before kickoff, I went ahead and made the smart move, I hedged with another player instead. Weighing my options, I decided to sit Austin Seferian-Jenkins for the relatively safe PPR play of Roy Helu. The Raiders would probably be throwing, Helu would likely be in on third down, and I expected him to get roughly seven-to-nine touches. Sounded better than the TE2 “breakout” candidate that might just give me two points, right?

Helu was a healthy scratch, Seferian-Jenkins scored about 100 points, and I was lucky not to need the difference to win my matchup. Even those of us who think we know what we’re doing can do the most boneheaded things with this game. Oh well, live and learn!

One week ago, we attempted to identify scoring tiers for our D/STs. Many of the matchups seemed pretty intuitive, so it’s very easy to assume our process was correct and just move on to Week 2. However, I think it’s always a good idea to keep a healthy look at past results, even if we don’t let it significantly dictate our future choices.

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Tier 1 Projections: Carolina, Seattle, Miami (average of 19 points)

Carolina and Seattle tied for top honors this week with 21 points apiece. Carolina did it by dominating a weak Jacksonville offense, whereas Seattle required 2 rare D/ST TDs to notch their score. That said, St. Louis scored a D/ST TD of their own, and this game was overall quite strange. Miami got more than they bargained for with Washington (imagine believing that one week ago!), and needed a D/ST TD to get to 15 points (tied for 7th). I would continue to bet against the Washington Redskins and expect more sacks this week. All three of these players seemed obvious, performed as expected, and we all lived happily ever after.

Tier 1.5: Tampa Bay (average of 1 point)

The Buccaneers continue their streak of futility on this column, having come up short of their expectation roughly three hundred times in a row. It was a pathetic display, and probably puts them off our boards for the foreseeable future, although a few D/ST stats kept them from going negative.

Tier 2: Houston, NY Jets, Indianapolis (average of 6.3 points)

Two out of three bombed. The Houston game showed how a bad QB can be a D/ST liability, but I still like the Texans position here. They played well for the most part, and so did Kansas City, but were unable to force any turnovers. For a team that led the league last season, zero is a big disappointment, and killed any D/ST value. The Jets destroyed the Browns in one of the more impressive displays on the weekend. 15 D/ST points without any D/STs is very strong! Indianapolis matched Tampa Bay in the other of the most disappointing Week 1 games.

Tier 2.5: Cleveland, Minnesota, Green Bay (average of 3.7)

These three were all pretty bad. I wasn’t able to watch Cleveland or Green Bay, but they didn’t seem worth watching from the defensive box score. Minnesota flashed a couple of times, but overall, they were beaten by a 49ers team that may have just been a fluke, or San Francisco could actually be good themselves. Either way, this tier was arguably more disappointing than Tampa Bay.

Tier 3: San Francisco, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Kansas City (average of 11.3 points)

Here’s where we start getting to the end of the streaming tier, since even in a 12- or 14-team league, one of the above 14 teams should have been available.

Tier 3.5: New England, San Diego, Arizona, St. Louis (average of 9.5 points)

Overall, it was Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Cleveland who were the real disappointments, with honorary mention to Houston. The other 14 teams ranked all scored in the top 24 and most scored in the top 16. The high scorers that we missed were Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore, NY Giants, Buffalo, Detroit, and Washington. Some of these – Washington, NY Giants, and Tennessee scored well while still being pretty exploitable defenses. More data will help us determine whether Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore, or Detroit are as good as they looked, or if Denver, Baltimore, and Indianapolis are as bad offensively as they looked.

But we move ever onward to Week 2. Before I continue, I’d like to note the Week 1 projections were still based on ESPN scoring – I had used last year’s edition of the spreadsheet by mistake. It’s been fixed – the projections now properly reflect MFL Standard Scoring.

Week 2 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected points – opponent)

1. St. Louis Rams – 12.0 at Washington
2. Miami Dolphins – 11.7 at Jacksonville
3. Cleveland Browns – 11.2 vs Tennessee
4. Carolina Panthers – 11.1 vs Houston
5. Indianapolis Colts – 10.8 vs New York Jets
6. New Orleans Saints – 10.3 vs Tampa Bay
7. Houston Texans – 10.1 at Carolina
8. Arizona Cardinals – 9.5 at Chicago
9. Pittsburgh Steelers – 9.5 vs San Francisco
10. New England Patriots – 9.4 at Buffalo
11. Philadelphia Eagles – 9.0 vs Dallas
12. Detroit Lions – 9.0 at Minnesota
13. Cincinnati Bengals – 8.9 vs San Diego
14. Buffalo Bills – 8.9 vs New England
15. Kansas City Chiefs – 8.9 vs Denver
16. Denver Broncos – 8.9 at Kansas City

Others in Tier 3.5: Washington (8.8) and Minnesota (8.8)

(NOTE): Because of the uncertainty regarding Derek Carr and the Raiders offense, there is no widely available Vegas line for the game. As such, the ranking will have to be a guess. With the way I would guess at handicapping the game (~Baltimore -2, over/under 43 with Carr, or ~Baltimore -3.5, over/under 42 with McGloin), it puts both teams outside of our streaming radar for the week, so keep an eye on Vegas to see where the line gets set.

Tier 1: St. Louis and Miami

These two stand alone atop a few very solid options. Both are also likely owned from Week 1, so if you have either one, just stick with it another week. The Dolphins get the Jaguars as healthy six-point road favorites. Vegas isn’t buying the Jaguars, and they’re not yet selling the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Rams should be able to dismantle the Redskins in ways the Dolphins weren’t able to in Week 1. Since the Dolphins still put up a respectable 15 points, we can expect a great game from St. Louis as well.

Tier 2: Cleveland, Carolina, Indianapolis

Carolina exceeded their lofty expectations last week, and those of us with the Panthers will probably just stay put this week. The Houston QB situation is bad or worse, and this week they’re on the road against a Panthers team that did very well in Week 1. This could be Week 2 of many for Panthers owners. Cleveland and Indianapolis are a lot harder to justify, but they’re going to be the go to streamers this week. Cleveland shows Vegas has zero confidence in Marcus Mariota, although it’s important to note that his numbers are still being estimated on my end due to his sample size being one game. Unless you really think he’s going to go 4/0 TD/INT every week (in 16 passes!), I think that’s a fair assumption. If you think Mariota is legitimately as good as advertised, avoid the Browns. The Colts get the Jets at home, and I suspect New York is going to have a much harder time keeping up with the Colts than Buffalo just did.

Tier 2.5: New Orleans and Houston

To be perfectly honest, I’m not expecting either of these D/STs to do particularly well, but such is the life of a streamer. Some of us will have to end up with these, and they both have some very strong pluses to consider. Should they be your targets? The Saints get their crack at the Buccaneers, so they are definitely worth a look. I don’t expect the Bucs to be quite as bad as they were in Week 1, but let’s face reality: they’ve got mediocre weapons until Evans and Winston can both be playing at a respectable level, and the Saints are going to be huge favorites at home. Good combination for a low floor, high ceiling play. Houston’s defensive line play should be better against Carolina than Jacksonville’s was, and they scored quite well themselves. Anybody who is concerned with Cleveland (either because their QB sucks or you think Mariota is great) could easily justify either Tier 2.5 options here.

Tier 3 and 3.5: Arizona, Pittsburgh, New England, Philadelphia, Detroit, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, and Minnesota

Lots of choices. Lots of mediocrity. A couple of names stand out.

• Buffalo is the cream of this crop, and should probably be owned in 100% of leagues. I wouldn’t be excited to start them this week or next, but they can be justified, and will probably make up for it over the course of the season. The way they handled Andrew Luck and the Colts should be all the proof you need that they can hang in any matchup, and you’ll appreciate it when they get teams like the Jets or the Jaguars or the Titans or the Jets again or the Redskins or the Texans (yes, those are all in their schedule!).

• Denver and Kansas City play each other and both could be very good going forward. I would lean Denver of these two; I like their defense better, and their matchups going forward are much better. You might be able to sneak in a two-to-three week stretch with the Broncos if their offense goes heavier on the run and their defense plays like they did Sunday.

• I would avoid Pittsburgh and Detroit at all costs. Probably New England and Philadelphia also.

Those of us who hit our picks in Week 1, congrats. Let’s keep that up. Those of us that missed, hope we all have better luck in Week 2.

Thank you as always for reading!

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