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One of the hardest tasks for fantasy owners is to decide when a consistently elite fantasy option is finally going to stop being a dominant fantasy player and instead be a dreaded fantasy bust. There has not been a more dominant fantasy player the last 17 NFL seasons than Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning. Manning has never finished outside the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks in a season in which he played 16 games. He has been a top-5 fantasy quarterback 11 out of his 17 NFL seasons and has finished sixth on four occasions.
However, all good things must come to and end and I think this is finally the season where Manning is no longer an elite fantasy option. Manning is currently the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback, which is incredibly high considering the question marks surrounding this season. Here are five reasons why Manning will finish outside the top-10 for fantasy quarterbacks for the first time in his career.
1) Manning was dreadful to close the 2014 NFL Season – If you look at Manning’s 2014 season, he steadily declined the last three months. He started the season with a 108.5 September QB rating and through October, he posted 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. His October QB rating was a stellar 127.4. However, in November he declined and threw 14 touchdowns, six interceptions and had a QB rating of 95.1. In December, he had just three touchdowns, six interceptions and a 76.8 QB rating. He followed up that bad December with a 75.5 QB rating and averaged just 4.59 yards per pass attempt in a playoff loss the Indianapolis Colts. Keep in mind he had a first-round bye to rest up for that game and still played epically bad.
The Broncos were not enthused about how Manning closed the season. They initially asked him to take a 50 percent pay cut and had preliminary discussions with the Houston Texans about a possible trade. Manning finally settled on a $4 million salary reduction. These are not the actions a team takes when they view their quarterback as an elite option. These are the actions of a team that views their quarterback as being over-the-hill. I expect Manning to have a similar decline in production during the season, only I do not expect him to start as strong as he did in 2014 and I expect the decline to happen sooner. The end of the 2014 season was a horrible way to finish and is likely to carryover to the 2015 season.
2) Gary Kubiak is a run-first head coach – Head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase were let go, because the Broncos lost in the Divisional Round two of the last three years. They had these early exits despite having a first round bye in all three seasons. Executive Vice President and General Manager John Elway did not like that Manning was throwing the ball 613 times per season. Elway wanted to hire a head coach that would lean more on the running game and keep Manning fresh for the playoffs. He does not want that December and January decline that happened in 2014.
If Manning is able to stay healthy and if the Broncos are able to establish RB C.J. Anderson as their “bell-cow” back, I would expect Manning to have only 475 to 525 passing attempts. If that is the case, he will probably have only 3,800 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. With his lack of mobility, there is no way those numbers make him the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback.
3) Manning turned 39-years old in March – Older quarterbacks are not usually the stars of fantasy leagues. Minnesota Vikings QB Brett Favre was able to put together a season where he was the third ranked fantasy quarterback at 40-years old. Seattle Seahawks QB Warren Moon was the eighth ranked fantasy quarterback in 1997 at the age of 41-years old. Two years before that, Moon was ranked third. However, 39-year old quarterbacks tend not to have big fantasy seasons. It is a big reason Elway wants this team to have a strong running game, Elway does not believe a pass happy offense is conducive to them winning games.
4) Manning lost several key contributors on offense – The Broncos are not the same offense they were a year ago. The most important loss is OT Ryan Clady, who tore his ACL and will miss the season. OG Orlando Franklin left in free agency and is now a San Diego Charger. TE Julius Thomas signed a deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Those are three big losses that are going to leave Manning without an athletic tight end to stretch the field and may give him less time to throw the ball. Manning cannot take a ton of hits if he wants to make it through the year. Any quarterback is susceptible to injury, but Manning is even more susceptible at his age.
5) QB Brock Osweiler is in a contract year – This is probably the smallest concern, but if Manning is bad this year, it will be his last year in Denver. The Broncos can trade him after this season or they could just release him. Osweiler is the quarterback of the future and he has thrown only 30 passes in three seasons. If Manning is not playing well and the Broncos are out of contention, they may not hesitate to start Osweiler the last month of the season to see what they have for the future.
It is a bad recipe for a top-4 fantasy season. Best-case scenario, Manning plays 16 games in an offense that features the running game and limits him to 30 passes per game. He will probably throw for around 225 yards per game and 1 – 2 touchdowns per game. That is not good enough to be a top-30 fantasy pick or a top-4 fantasy quarterback. He will be a bust with those statistics given his current draft position. Worst-case scenario, Manning is not able to stay healthy or be effective and his season is a disaster.
I will not own Manning in any league this year. I probably would not draft him before the 10th round and he will be long gone before then. His name and past success is overshadowing the new offense and what he can realistically be expected to produce in 2015 at his age.
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Derek Lofland is the co-owner of Fantasy Football Maniax. You can also follow him on Twitter @DerekLofland.
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