2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers

A sleeper could be make-or-break for your fantasy football team, just like Richard Sherman. The cornerback was selected by the Seattle Seahawks in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in 2011 and has since turned out to be an integral part of two Super Bowl teams. 31 other teams slept on his talent while one hit the jackpot. Fantasy drafts this summer will be a minefield of similar players, whose production greatly exceeds their draft position, thus giving their owners fantastic value.

But who are the top sleeper candidates for each position for 2015? Let’s break them down and have a look.

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Quarterback

Nick Foles – St Louis Rams
2014 stats: 8 GP, 2,163 passing yards, 13 TDs, 10 INTs, 113 fantasy points

Nick Foles was so below average in 2014 that the Philadelphia Eagles dumped him off and brought in the oft-injured Sam Bradford as his replacement. Bradford perhaps represents more of an upside with regards to talent and play, but his injury history makes him more of a risk than their original signal caller.

Having said that, Foles can get it done. He’s shown it before with a Pro Bowl season back in 2013, where he had 27 touchdowns with just two interceptions and a shade under 3,000 passing yards. Granted, St Louis’ offensive talent is overrated, but they do have pieces. Tavon Austin has been incorrectly used for the past couple of years, and Kenny Britt has enough talent to be a valuable receiver. Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks also provide a solid one-two punch at tight end, so Foles should have sufficient pass catchers to be able to succeed.

That’s not to suggest that he’ll be among the position’s top tier, but he could be a serviceable fantasy play most weeks for a late round price. Being at that Philip Rivers/Tony Romo/Joe Flacco level is not out of the question for the Rams’ new leading man.

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014 stats: N/A

Winston was the NFL Draft’s most coveted player, going No. 1 overall to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this spring. And although he was drafted at the highest position possible, rookie quarterbacks aren’t the most reliable in their inaugural campaigns. That doesn’t mean they won’t succeed in fantasy terms, but there’s a big step up from the college level to the pros, and these players need time to adapt to the big leagues. As we can see from the table below, over the last three seasons there has been mixed results from first round rookie quarterbacks.

It’s a mixed bag when first round QBs attempt to live up to expectations in their rookie seasons. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin were the only ones to excel.

The top two aside, there haven’t been any good fantasy plays from the rest of them over the course of a season, and Winston could get caught up in it all. But he has fantastic weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson at his disposal, is capable of making big plays and has great raw talent. For someone who could be available as drafts call for last orders, he may be worth a flier. The potential for big numbers is certainly there and the value might be too.

Running Back

Latavius Murray – Oakland Raiders
2014 stats: 15 GP, 424 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 61 fantasy points

2014 was essentially Latavius Murray’s rookie season. It actually wasn’t though, as it was his second year in the league, but he missed the entire 2013 campaign after being placed on injured reserve just before it all started. That stat line isn’t very impressive, but Murray showed some serious potential after rising above Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew on the depth chart and getting legitimate playing time.

He’s a double threat being larger than the prototypical running back and has good speed, but he does have a couple of question marks that could damage his draft value. One of those is an injury record having already missed one season, and he only has 82 career carries, a small sample size that makes it difficult to pass judgment. There’s also the minor matter of sharing a backfield with Trent Richardson and Roy Helu, but neither backs’ career would lead us to believe that they’re legitimate threats to the starting job in Oakland.

Due to these concerns, Murray may fall farther than other RBs with similar potential and could be available at a good price. As it stands, Murray would shape up to be an RB3 or flex play, with the potential to be a second starter if he can take the next step.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys
2014 stats: 16 GP, 343 rushing yards, 3 TDs, two fumbles, 42 fantasy points

We all saw how it went down in Dallas last season. An above-average runner with an elite offensive line blocking for him ran for almost 2,000 yards and had 13 scores last year en route to a league-best fantasy total for a running back.

Now it’s important to note that Joseph Randle isn’t quite as good as DeMarco Murray, and he’ll have to fend off competition from Darren McFadden. But with Run DMC’s recent demotion to the PUP list, and the dominant line that the Cowboys boast, Randle’s stock has significantly risen.

Even behind Murray last year, he still managed to record a couple of double-digit games, which leads us to believe that he can be productive in a Cowboys’ uniform. With an uncertainty still clouding Dallas’ run game, Randle could fall in drafts and turn out be a steal in the fourth or fifth rounds, or maybe even later.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans
2014 stats: 16 GP, 1,210 yards, 6 TDs, one fumble, 146 fantasy points

DeAndre Hopkins played with one of the worst quarterback situations in football last year, but quietly managed to put up impressive numbers along the way. He finished 15th overall in fantasy scoring at his position, which in any fantasy league makes him a solid WR2. His problem is that he was a little streaky. He scored 35 of his 146 points in just a single game against the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 and finished the season with nine single-digit games. That’s not great for someone you’d hope to depend on over a season. But like with most sleepers, their flaws could turn out to be a blessing in disguise to potential fantasy suitors.

The stat that should entice potential suitors is that the best hands in the NFL over the last two seasons belong to Hopkins. He’s snagged 97%, or 128 of 132, catchable passes since turning pro. So if whoever is playing under center for the Texans can find him consistently, his fantasy owners should reap the rewards. He’s a slightly unattractive and risky pickup, with WR1 upside.

Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers
2014 stats: 10 GP, 549 receiving yards, 8 TDs, 100 fantasy points

Martavis Bryant burst onto the scene last season and had five fantasy outings of double-digit points. That’s not bad when you consider that he only played in 10 games. But the reason he did so well in those games was his high touchdown rate, which saw him score 0.8 times per game. He was an important target for Ben Roethlisberger in the end zone and his play last year would suggest that he will continue being so for the foreseeable future.

The main reason his stock takes a hit is because the Pittsburgh Steelers own two of the best fantasy players in football – Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Not only is he the league’s leading receiver, but also the leading pass-catching back in the game. It’s solid competition for targets, but in spite of lining up alongside two All-Pros, Bryant still put points on the board. With another season under his belt, he could be primed to do it again. As a possible high-end WR3, the former fourth-round selection is worth taking at a low price.

Tight End

Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans
2014 stats:  15 GP, 890 yards, 4 TDs, 105 fantasy points

Delanie Walker – who was comfortably a top-ten tight end in 2014 – currently has an average draft position of 99th overall and is the 13th TE being taken off the board in most drafts. If you want a player at the position with potential to be a high-value pick, then Delanie Walker is your man. Walker was one of only four tight ends to lead his team in receiving last year and did so with a solid 890 yards and four touchdowns.

He’s not a spectacular player, but he fills a positional need for fantasy players. Walker addresses that with a pick in the round eight to 11 range according to his ADP, allowing you to worry about higher-yielding positions first.

Defense/Special Teams

Saints D/ST
2014 stats: 424 PA, 12 INT, 5 FR, 34 sacks, 39 fantasy points

The Saints D/ST has one of the lowest floors of any team after finishing second from the bottom in the fantasy standings last year. The reputation as a bad fantasy play is most certainly warranted, but they are loaded with defensive talent. Yes, Junior Galette has left the building, but he leaves behind a unit that has Cameron Jordan, Kevin Williams, rookie Stephone Anthony, Brandon Browner, Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd.

They weren’t particularly good against the pass or the run next year, but an influx of new talent coupled with a clean bill of health could see an upturn in fortunes. Plus, second-year player and return man Jalen Saunders showed flashes of a talented returner towards the end of last season, so they may be able to put some special teams points on the board too.

Kicker

Stephen Gostkowski – New England Patriots
2014 stats: 16 GP, 37 FGA, 35 FGM, 51 XPA, 51 XPM, 168 fantasy points

I know what you’re thinking, “How does fantasy’s best kicker fall into the sleeper category?” But in the grand scheme of things, he does. There appears to be a consensus in fantasy football that kickers and defense/special teams shouldn’t be drafted, or they should at least be left until the last couple of rounds. Not necessarily.

Gostkowski provides a solid base at kicker for your team and should hit double digits in most games he plays. He’s still on an offense that regularly gets into scoring position, and has been ranked in the top six in kicking accuracy over the past two seasons. If you’ve already filled all of the skill positions on your team and maybe added a couple of other pieces too, then there’s no shame in picking up Gostkowski. He’s probably far more reliable than any flier you’re likely to find with your ninth or tenth picks.

*All fantasy point totals in this article are in-line with ESPN standard scoring.

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Tom Woods is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Tom, check out his archive and follow him @RealTomWoods.